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Josh Busky evaluates the National League Rookie of the Year Race. Are James Outman, Corbin Carroll, and Brett Baty fantasy baseball regression candidates?
A two-man race has emerged for the National League Rookie of the Year, with Corbin Carroll initially seen as the runaway favorite to win the award. However, James Outman of the Los Angeles Dodgers has made a strong case to challenge for the award. Outman aims to become the first Dodger to capture the award since Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager were back-to-back winners in 2016 and 2017.
Despite Carroll's early favoritism, Outman is currently first in terms of Vegas odds. However, Carroll is not far behind him after he faced some challenges to start the year. He battled a slow start compared to his limited action at the end of 2022 and had a brief absence due to injury. Fortunately, he only missed three games after crashing into the wall at Coors Field. The MRI revealed no structural damage to his knee, allowing the fantasy community to breathe a sigh of relief.
As the season rolls along, it is worth observing which rookies are exceeding their expected stats and who might experience a decline in the second half of the season. Additionally, we should keep an eye out for other rookies who could emerge as strong contenders for the award in the second half of the season.
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James Outman, OF - Los Angeles Dodgers
Outman has occupied a spot in the back half of the Dodgers lineup throughout the season but has been given the chance to lead off whenever Mookie Betts is out of the lineup. In his 41 games played, the 26-year-old has posted a .267 batting average with eight home runs, 23 RBI, and four stolen bases. Currently, he leads National League rookies in home runs and RBI.
As of now, Outman remains the Vegas favorite over Carroll, although that could change once Carroll hits his stride. Outman has struggled in May, with only one home run, three RBI, and a .205 batting average. Despite this, playing time doesn't seem to be an issue as the Dodgers have veterans filling in the back half of their outfield depth chart. Outman has consistently made defensive contributions and has made the most of his starts in center field.
Outman’s power seems legitimate, evidenced by his ranking in the 72nd and 82nd percentile for max exit velocity and barrel percentage, respectively, according to Statcast. His struggles with batting average can be attributed to a high strikeout rate of 33 percent and a whiff percentage of 39 percent. These issues should improve over time as he becomes more acclimated to major-league pitching. Notably, he has an above-average walk rate of 10.3 percent and has demonstrated good pitch recognition this year.
Corbin Carroll, OF - Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll currently ranks second in rookie steals in the National League, trailing only Ji-Hwan Bae, with a total of 10 swipes through 38 games played. So far in 2023, Carroll has hit .277 with five home runs and 11 RBI. However, similar to Outman, Carroll experienced some struggles in May, recording a batting average of .182 and hitting only one home run.
Once Carroll gets back up to speed, he should surpass Outman and regain his position as the favorite for the award. His combination of power and speed is too formidable to be subdued for an extended period. Statcast data reveals that Carroll ranks in the 100th percentile in sprint speed and in the 93rd percentile in max exit velocity.
Carroll has maintained an aggressive approach at the plate, chasing pitches out of the strike zone. Despite this, he has successfully lowered his strikeout rate to 21.2 percent this season. Fantasy managers would love for Arizona to give their young superstar an opportunity to lead off, although he has primarily hit third most of the season.
Brett Baty, 3B - New York Mets
Brett Baty is currently ranked a distant third among the leaders for National League Rookie of the Year. He is struggling to secure consistent playing time in a Mets lineup dominated by veterans but has the skills to produce when given the opportunity. The fantasy baseball community was shocked when the Mets opted not to include him on the opening day roster, especially after his promising performance in limited plate appearances for the big league club last year.
Baty has been mostly benched against left-handed starting pitchers, but he has managed a .278 average against them in the few chances he has had. The Mets are playing it safe with the young third baseman, wanting him to demonstrate his abilities at the major league level before granting him everyday playing time. He’s done all he could to prove his skill set, hitting an impressive .400 in the minor leagues this year with five home runs and 15 RBI.
The 23-year-old gives the Mets the best chance of winning while also developing his defensive skill set at the major league level. However, fantasy managers are at the mercy of an organization that prioritizes playing veterans like Eduardo Escobar, who is batting .182, over their promising prospects. Baty has delivered a max exit velocity of over 113 mph in consecutive seasons, which ranks in the 93rd percentile. He certainly deserves an everyday job, but only time will tell if he's given that opportunity.
The Field
Which rookies could we see emerge as contenders in the second half of the season? The market for rookie promotions and evaluating their performance based on small sample sizes is extremely volatile. But there are a few names worth watching as potential contenders in the second half of the season: Eury Perez of the Miami Marlins, Miguel Vargas of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Kodai Senga of the New York Mets.
Kodai Senga, an early favorite for the award due to his successful career in the Nippon Professional Baseball League, has struggled with his control. He has recorded three or more walks in six of seven starts and has only managed two quality starts thus so far. Miguel Vargas, who has been serving as the Dodgers' everyday second baseman, has had a difficult time, batting just .218 in 39 games. However, he’s started to find his groove recently, hitting three home runs with 12 RBI in May. Statcast indicates that his expected batting average for the season is .258, suggesting better days are ahead for him.
Lastly, Eury Perez made his Major League debut for the Marlins on Friday, becoming the youngest pitcher in franchise history to do so. At just 20 years old, he skipped Triple-A and impressed in his debut against the Reds, recording seven strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings pitched. Perez showcased his 99 mph fastball and is regarded as the top pitching prospect in baseball. If given the opportunity to remain in the Marlins rotation, he should make some noise in the second half of the season.
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