RADIO
Eric Samulski evaluates SPs who have developed new pitches for 2023 for Part Five of his FSWA-award-winning series. Will these starting pitchers be fantasy baseball breakouts?
Welcome to the third season of the FSWA-award-winning series Pitchers with New Pitches (and Should We Care) where we take the simple premise that not every new pitch should be greeted with praise. A new pitch, like a shiny new toy, might be exciting on its own, but it also needs to be a complement to what a pitcher already has.
So instead of just celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, I watched the pitch in action, checked in on its performance, and looked at the Statcast Spin Direction graphics to see if it might actually make the pitcher any more effective. From there, I will try to give you a simple verdict as to whether or not we should care about this new toy or not.
This is one of my favorite things to write, so I hope that you enjoy it. You can keep track of all of the pitchers I've been tracking and my evaluations here. It's important to note that this is the first time many of these pitchers have thrown these new pitches in a meaningful game, so the overall quality and consistency may get better over time. I've tried to take that into account in my analysis. We should also note (for the purposes of this article) that I will be including pitchers that have reworked or revamped a pitch to make it "new" even if it was technically a pitch they already threw.
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Mitch Keller - Cutter
Mitch Keller is a fantasy ace! OK, I don't know if I believe that, but I had to say it for my boy, Thunder Dan Palyo. However, it's hard to knock Keller's results so far this year with a 2.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 24% K-BB% in 56.2 innings.
After throwing a cutter in 2021, Keller removed that pitch in 2022, transitioning it to more of a slider. By June of last year, he had ditched the slider and gone to more of a sweeper, trading in velocity for more movement. In 2023, Keller retained the sweeper but added back in the cutter as a harder offering with less movement than the version he used to throw in 2021.
So far, the cutter and four-seamer have been Keller's best two pitches and, not coincidentally, they're the two pitches he uses together against left-handed hitters. Since Keller has a .291 career average versus lefties and a .426 career SLG allowed, getting better versus them was a priority. This year, he's allowing just a .194 AVG and .315 SLG.
As you can see from the graphic below, the four-seam (in red) and the cutter (in brown) approach the hitter from a similar release point (image on the left). However, by the time they reach home plate (image on the right) the cutter has a deviation of 60 with a movement in on left-handed hitters, while also being five mph slower.
On the season, the cutter has a .179 batting average against (BAA) with a .249 xBA but also has a 12.3% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and a 1.62 dERA, the best of any of his pitches. Part of that is because Keller not only uses the cutter up but will sometimes bury it down and in on lefties like a harder version of his slider.
What's more, the introduction of the cutter has allowed the four-seam to play up more since Keller has created more deception for left-handed hitters with the cutter-four-seam mix.
In 2023, the four-seam has a .167 BAA (.138 xBA) after posting a .269 BAA (.219 xBA) last year. It also has a 16.2% SwStr% and 34.8% CSW this year after posting an 11.4% SwStr% and 29% CSW last year. That means the cutter has not only become Keller's best pitch but has made his four-seam his second-best pitch. That has also taken a lot of pressure off of the off-speed pitches which have been inconsistent.
VERDICT: MEANINGFULLY IMPACTFUL
Any time you add a pitch that is now among your best, that would certainly be called impactful. The fact that the cutter has allowed the rest of the arsenal to play up is even more reason to call it a crucial pitch for Keller. I'd love to see Keller feel comfortable using the sweeper more because it has a 15.2% SwStr% and I think that could help Keller improve on his average 11.1% SwStr% overall, especially if he starts throwing the cutter to righties as well, as a harder, tighter version of his sweeper.
Seth Lugo - Re-shaped Slider
Editor's Note: This analysis was written before Lugo's 2-inning start against Kansas City this week.
Seth Lugo spent years as a valuable multi-inning relief pitcher for the Mets but had started only seven games since transitioning to the bullpen full-time in 2018. As a result, it was a bit of a surprise when the Padres said they were going to stretch Lugo out as a starter this year. So far, the move looks like it's paid off.
Through seven starts in his first season in San Diego, Lugo has pitched to a 3.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 16.3% K-BB% in 39.2 innings. Those ratios are supported by a 3.81 xFIP and 3.94 SIERA. Much of Lugo's success can be attributed to his curveball, which has the 15th-best Stuff+ in the majors amongst starters. Lugo throws the pitch 35.2% of the time but it has just an 11% SwStr% and has allowed a .308 average and .319 xBA. In fact, Lugo himself has just an 8.8% SwStr%.
He had tried to improve that this season by re-shaping his slider to help it play off of the curve and sinker better. In 2022, Lugo threw the slider at 88.9 mph with 27.7 inches of drop due to the harder nature of the pitch. In 2023, his slider is averaging 84.1 mph and has 37.2 inches of movement. The added drop and slower velocity create more of a difference between the slider and sinker, which Lugo uses primarily to righties; however, little about the slider itself has been good.
It's allowed a .300 average (.282 xBA), a 14.3% barrel rate, just a 4.4% SwStr%, and a 10.30 dERA. While there is some argument that the slight improvement on Lugo's sinker could be because of the change in the slider, Lugo is also missing bats way less on his sinker and the pitch has a 6.34 dERA, so it's not like it's been a good pitch.
VERDICT: NOT IMPACTFUL
I started this article expecting to see major growth from Lugo given what the projections have to say, but I came away underwhelmed. The ERA estimators believe Lugo is a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher, but it's not because of his slider or really any key pitch in his arsenal. He's allowing an 8.4% barrel rate and relies heavily on called strikes for his strikeouts. I'm not that invested aside from a good streaming opportunity here and there.
Bailey Ober - Re-shaped slider
Oh, look, another Twins player drastically changing something about their pitch mix and/or approach. Ober has added five inches of horizontal break to his slider while throwing it one mph less than last year. That took it from having 1.7 inches of vertical movement versus the average to -2.6 inches of vertical movement versus the average.
It's also given the pitch a 25.5% SwStr% after posting a 20% SwStr% last year. The pitch has also allowed a .136 average against while posting a -0.61 dERA and not allowing a single barrel. I honestly wish he threw it more than just 22% of the time.
On the whole, Ober is seeing more success in limiting hard contact on almost all of his offerings thanks to great command and added extension on his four-seamer. The four-seam has gone from a .256 batting average against and 15.4% barrel rate allowed to a .158 batting average against and 9.1% barrel rate allowed. He also seems to have added a touch more movement on his change-up, which has also helped limit hard contact, even though it's taken away some swing-and-miss.
VERDICT: MARGINALLY IMPACTFUL.
At the end of the day, the slider is a better pitch than it used to be and will likely miss more bats. However, Ober as a whole remains largely unchanged as a pitcher. His 8.14 K/9 is in line with the 8.2 mark he posted last year. This year's version of Ober is locating better and has made minor tweaks to limit hard contact which will keep his ratios in check. As a result, he's boring but certainly useful.
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