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Eric Cross' fantasy baseball dynasty news and notes analysis for Week 4 (2023). Notable prospects and risers/fallers for longer-term fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.
In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."
So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.
In this week's report, I'll be discussing the early-season surges and improvements from a pair of AL East bats, a trio of exciting prospect promotions, and so much more.
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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes
Matt Chapman on the Rise
If you follow me on Twitter, you'll probably know that I've been updated extra hard-hit (100+ mph) and super hard-hit (105+ mph) leaderboards. One name that has consistently been near the top of both leaderboards has been Matt Chapman. Entering Friday, Chapman has a ridiculous 34.6% barrel rate, 65.4% hard-hit rate, 97 mph AVG EV, and an .813 xSLG. All of which are in the top-1% of hitters so far. As for his surface stats, Chapman has a .397/.461/.750 slash line and five home runs in 76 plate appearances
Chapman isn't being discussed here just because he's demolishing baseballs on the regular this season. On top of the elite QoC metricvs, Chapman has made strides with other offensive metrics as well, including an improved strikeout rate, whiff rate, and zone contact rate. Is Chapman going to hit close to .400 all season? No, of course not. But these are all tangible early-season changes he's made, and if they stick moving forward, Chapman could slide up into my Top-100 overall dynasty rankings and Top-10 dynasty third base rankings as well
Buying the Jorge Mateo Start?
Who would've thought that Jorge Mateo would be a top-10 fantasy asset through the first three weeks of the season? Not me, that's for sure. Although Mateo is coming off a season where he hit 13 home runs and stole 35 bags in 150 games, there wasn't much buzz around Mateo's name entering 2023. Part of that was due to the fact that Baltimore has Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz, and Connor Norby nearly ready to debut. At the same time, Mateo also only hit .221 with a .267 OBP and unimpressive underlying metrics. But so far in 2023, we've seen a much improved hitter across the board.
| Year | Zone Contact | Chase | Whiff | BB | K |
| 2022 | 78.1% | 36.6% | 30.9% | 5.1% | 27.6% |
| 2023 | 86.6% | 25.2% | 22.9% | 8.8% | 15.8% |
Mateo is also producing better quality of contact metrics this season as well with a 92.2 mph EV (up from 86.8 mph) and a 45.2% hard-hit rate (up from 32.7%). And of course, the speed remains elite in the 99th percentile. Could we be looking at a Jonathan Villar type of season this year from Mateo? Remember that season from Villar in 2016 when he went 19/62? That might be the best-case scenario and obviously a lower-likelihood outcome, but these are all tangible changes that Mateo has made which certainly have me intrigued moving forward.
Mateo left the game Wednesday night, but is considered day-to day.
Prospect Promotions: Brett Baty, Zach Neto, and Mason Miller
We've enjoyed a trio of exciting prospect promotions over the last several days, including the Angels surprising us by calling up Zach Neto straight from Double-A, less than a year after he was drafted in the first round of the 2022 MLB draft. Let's start there. While Neto was arguably the most advanced bat in the entire draft class, he logged only 44 games and 201 plate appearances at the time of his promotion. But that's not to say he wasn't ready for the Majors. Neto is easily a plus hitter with the potential for above-average power and speed as well. The all-around offensive profile is rock-solid here, giving Neto a high floor and fairly high ceiling as well.
As for Brett Baty, I've discussed him over in my weekly Top-25 Prospects to Stash article here on RotoBaller, but let's focus more on Baty's long-term outlook. I've seen Baty live a bunch of times between Double-A and the Arizona Fall League, and the constant throughout all of those live looks was Baty hitting the ball hard to all fields. He's even cleaned up some of the swing-and-miss issues that were there in 2021 to the point where I'm comfortable projecting him as an above-average hitter with plus power capable of hitting above .270 while flirting with 30 homers annually. That should put him in that second tier of fantasy third basemen.
Finally, Mason Miller has burst onto the scene this year thanks to his loud arsenal and elite bat-missing ability. In his 28.2 minor league innings before getting the call to Oakland, Miller struck out a whopping 53 of the 103 batters he faced for a 51.5% strikeout rate. His Major League debut on Wednesday wasn't quite that dominant, but two earned runs over 4.1 innings with five strikeouts is nothing to scoff at. Miller averaged 99.4 mph on his four-seamer, topping out at 102.5 while mixing in an 87 mph slider and 95 mph cutter. The stuff is nasty, so Miller has a chance to break out in a major way this season.
Texas Two-Step
Both Jack Leiter and Cole Winn have consistently slid down my rankings over the last year or so as each right-hander has demonstrated command and control issues that led to inconsistent and underwhelming results in 2022.
- Winn: 121.2 IP, 6.51 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 15.2% BB, 21.5% K
- Leiter: 92.2 IP, 5.54 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 13.2% BB, 25.6% K
And again so far in 2023...
- Winn: 16 IP, 7.88 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 16.5% BB, 20.3% K
- Leiter: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 14.8% BB, 29.5% K
At least with Leiter, the strikeout rate has remained above 25%, but Winn's has dropped below league-average. The more I've scouted, analyzed, and ranked prospects, the more I've factored in and favored command and control. Yes, a pitching prospect needs to have good stuff, but we've seen countless pitching prospects with good stuff fizzle out or be limited by their command and strike-throwing issues. I'm worried that's what's going to happen here with both Winn and Leiter. I'd much rather roster Owen White than either of these two.
Dynasty Quick Hits
The hype was incredibly high surrounding Corbin Carroll entering the season, and he's responding with an exciting first few weeks of the season. After two hits last night (and two walks), Carroll is now hitting .292 through 19 games with four home runs and seven steals.
Carroll has had a 100th percentile sprint speed ever since he debuted late last season and also has posted impressive quality of contact metrics with an 11.1% barrel rate, 42.2% hard-hit rate, and 92.2 mph AVG EV so far this season. When he was in the minors, Trea Turner comps got thrown around for Carroll, including from me. There's a great chance we see him as a first-round fantasy pick next spring and universally inside Top-10 dynasty rankings.
One of my top picks to rise inside Top-25 (or higher) prospect rankings this season was Emmanuel Rodriguez. That hasn't changed, but my concerns about Rodriguez being too passive have come to fruition so far this season. While Rodriguez has five extra-base hits and three home runs to go along with a .630 SLG and .445 ISO in seven games this season, he's also struck out in 17 of his 34 plate appearances (50%).
The problem isn't that he whiffs too much as his swinging strike rate is a respectable 10.4%. However, Rodriguez is too passive and gets himself into too many two-strike counts. There's fantasy stud upside here, especially in OBP formats, but Rodriguez will need to be a bit more aggressive.
Andrew Abbott has made three starts this season for Double-A Chattanooga and all three of those starts have ended with double-digit strikeouts. In his most recent start on Wednesday night, Abbott struck out 11 in just five innings but that still lowered his season strikeout rate from 71.4% to 64.3%.
So disappointing, right? Abbott's bread and butter is his plus slider and he also has shown an above-average fastball this season that plays up due to his command and control. The arrow is firmly pointing upwards here in dynasty leagues.
I'm not going to go as far as saying I'm fully out on this guy, but Michael Kopech is definitely an arm I'm fading and have been for a bit now. When he was a prospect, Kopech was projected as a top of the rotation arm with elite strikeout upside. And outside of his 2021 stint in the bullpen, he just hasn't missed that many bats.
Through three starts this season, Kopech has recorded a 6.32 ERA, 12.69 xERA, and 19.7% strikeout rate which is down from the already uninspiring 21.3% mark he had in 2022. On top of that, Kopech's walk rate has gotten even worse, rising from 11.5% to 14.1% and he's allowing barrels at a 29.8% clip. Kopech's once dominant slider just hasn't been overly effective in the Majors, and has a 21.3% and 19% whiff rate respectively in 2022 and 2023. Plus, once you add in all the injuries and everything else, Kopech is a strong fade and avoid for me right now.
One top-100 ADP arm I was avoiding during draft season was Alek Manoah, and I'm definitely glad I was. The two main reasons behind my skepticism was an xERA more then a full run higher than his surface ERA along with middle of the road whiff and strikeout rates. If Manoah's ERA were to regress into the 3.25-3.50 range, would he still be a Top-20 arm when that comes with a league-average strikeout rate? However, I wasn't anticipating things to go this far south.
Through four starts, Manoah has a 6.98 ERA, 8.01 xERA, 15.5% walk rate, and has seen his strikeout rate drop to 16.5%. His command just hasn't been there and the velocity has been wonky start to start. I'm sure he'll turn things around, but I'm definitely not a believer in the Manoah we saw last season. He's probably more of a 3.30-3.50 ERA and 20-22% strikeout rate arm moving forward.
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