RIVAL Fantasy - NFL FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Prop Picks: Divisional Round Saturday Slate

January 20, 2023

Josh Constantinou's NFL Over/Under DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests on Divisional Round Saturday Slate. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his NFL DFS prop picks to win money.

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The contest we will focus on in this article is the FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Props contest, specifically for the Divisional Round Saturday Slate, which features two games. First up is the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Kansas City Chiefs, followed by the New York Giants at the Philadelphia Eagles. FantasyBook allows you to build a two-to-five pick based on their fantasy points projection and pick over or under the projected total. If you get all of your picks correct, you can win up to 18x your buy-in.

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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Divisional Round Saturday Slate

Both games include the No. 1 seed taking on the lowest-ranked team left, which is why we'll be targeting players from those talented squads to excel and players from the weaker squads to struggle. 

Patrick Mahomes OVER 23.66 fantasy points

It's hard to talk about talented players without Mahomes being at the forefront of that discussion. He ended the season as the No. 1 overall QB in fantasy, racking up 41 touchdown passes and 5,250 yards. He's the caliber of player you want to trust to score points. We saw Justin Herbert and the Chargers put up 27 points in the first half on Jacksonville before an epic collapse, setting Mahomes up for a massive game. Additionally, these two teams played earlier this season in a game that started out almost the same way. The Chiefs scored the first 21 points before coasting through the fourth quarter, finishing with a 27-17 win. Mahomes tossed four touchdowns and 331 yards in that one, adding another 39 on the ground. Furthermore, both teams rank in the top 12 in pace, meaning there will be more plays run by each offense.

When we examine the line, we'll see he missed the mark in their blowout win over the Raiders. Otherwise, he's cleared that mark in three straight games. Something that not everyone realizes is the rushing production Mahomes offers. He carried the ball 61 times this season for 358 yards and four touchdowns, two of which came in the last four weeks. That's an extra 21 yards on the ground each week, representing 2.1 fantasy points. The Jaguars' defense is a top-10 matchup in terms of coverage according to Pro Football Focus, DVOA according to Football Outsiders, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Take the over on Mahomes in what should be an easy victory.

DeVonta Smith OVER 14.92 fantasy points

Smith entered his sophomore season with question marks about thriving with A.J. Brown taking over. He answered them in spades, catching 95 passes for 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged 12.59 yards per reception, demonstrating his ability to make plays downfield. New York began the year with an impressive defense but faded down the stretch, becoming a team to target for both the passing and rushing attack. These teams played in Week 18, but Jalen Hurts was far from healthy, and the Giants played their backups. Even still, Smith caught seven passes for 67 yards. Meanwhile, the first time they played, he hauled in five passes for 64 yards and a score.

Aside from that Week 18 matchup, where he missed the line by 1.22 points, he's beaten it in five consecutive outings. The other thing he has working in his favor is that Adoree Jackson and the New York defense will focus their attention on Brown, opening up more opportunities against weaker coverage for Smith. Take the over on Smith in a game with a high over/under and a fantastic matchup.

Miles Sanders OVER 12.52 fantasy points

Sanders rushed for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns this year, an area of his game many questioned entering the season. He has been on a brutal stretch the past four weeks, but one was in Week 18, two were without Hurts, and the other was an anomaly. The rushing attack didn't function as well when Hurts was out, directly reducing the output and opportunity for chunk runs from Sanders because the defense did not have to worry about a mobile quarterback, particularly one as athletic as Hurts. The Bears game was an outlier because they elected to torch them through the air, plus Hurts stole two goal-line carries.

What's helpful about his production is that it was generally predictable. The games he excelled in were against porous run defenses such as Green Bay, Jacksonville, Detroit early in the year, and New York. In their Week 14 meeting, he averaged 8.5 yards per carry, totaling 155 yards and two scores. The Giants rank 28th in run defense according to Pro Football Focus and 32nd (dead last) in run DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Take the over on Sanders, who is a great bet to find the end zone.

Darius Slayton UNDER 11.71 fantasy points

The Eagles secondary is elite, plus they're getting healthy at the right time, which negatively impacts Slayton. He's their big-play receiver, averaging 15.74 yards per reception. He played extremely well in Minnesota, capitalizing on the opportunity to exploit their poor cornerbacks but this week, he faces Darius Slay and James Bradberry. They're much better than the players he lined up across from last week.

His role makes him very streaky because the other receivers, Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James, are targeted more frequently. Moreover, he's not a threat in the red zone, which limits his touchdown upside. He only found the end zone twice this season and hasn't done so since Week 10. Without the possibility of a touchdown, you're relying on multiple big plays, which is unlikely against this secondary. Take the under on Slayton.

Richie James OVER 9.43 fantasy points

James, who we referenced above as more of a possession receiver, is the only one with a plus-matchup this week. He'll face Josiah Scott, who is filling in for Avonte Maddox, providing him with the chance to be a safety valve for Jones. He's caught four or more passes in each of their past five games while totaling 60-plus yards three times and scoring in two of them.

He did miss the line twice during that stretch, but it was by 2.32 and 1.23 fantasy points, so he's been near or over this line consistently, including doubling it on two occasions. Take the over on James, who may be an unsung hero this week.

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