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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 17 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 12/26/2022. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
The EPL is back following the World Cup break and we're heading into a bit of the unknown. Not since the 2019/20 season, which was paused due to Covid, have we had such a long break during the season. We're going to tread a bit carefully as a result, with some players having not played a competitive game in six weeks and some coming back from weeks of training and playing in extreme temperatures at the World Cup.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 68-78
- Total picks: 61-78-8
- Parlays: 6-19
- ROI: 95.24% (-5.95 units)
Monday, December 26th, 2022
Tottenham (-113) at Brentford (+318) 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 3 Tottenham
Tottenham will be looking to tighten things up defensively when the EPL gets going again. They come into this game having conceded two or more goals in five straight EPL games (losing three of those games) and without a clean sheet in eight games in all competitions. They still sit in fourth place and will be keen to push on to solidify their top four credentials.
Brentford's home form has been good so far, with three wins, three draws and one loss (which came against top-of-the-table Arsenal). They've conceded eight goals in their last four EPL games so will want to try and sure things up at the back also.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+119) 0.5 units and away team to score a penalty (+400) 0.25 units
Neither team has been able to keep clean sheets prior to the break and both teams' strengths lie in their attackers so I'm expecting the first game back to go off with a bang and a high-scoring slugfest to get things going.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
The penalty miss in England's World Cup quarter-final defeat will haunt Kane for some time but he'll put it behind him and the way soccer works, I fully expect him to get a penalty opportunity and take it which is why I'm taking it as a bonus bet.
Fulham (+248) at Crystal Palace (+113) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 1 Fulham
Fulham probably was happy for the World Cup break to come as they had lost back-to-back games for the second time this season and were winless in their last three EPL games. After a goalless draw with Wolves in their first away game of the season, their last six away games have seen both teams score and their opposition score two or more in all of them.
Crystal Palace has picked up 13 points at home (seven games) and only six points away (seven games) so will be keen to maintain that home form after the break. They've played three other London-based teams at home this season and failed to win any of them with their four home wins coming against all other opposition.
Betting pick: Home team total goals - Over 1.5 (+117) 0.5 units
Fulham's defensive frailties away from home have been evident, conceding two or more in their last six road trips. Crystal Palace has found the net in all but one home game (against top-of-the-table Arsenal) and scored two or more in three of them, including two of their last three. I'm not putting much credence into their London Derby struggles unless they lose this one and then I'll begin to think it's a "thing".
Player to watch: Eberechi Eze
Eze has been overshadowed by Wilfried Zaha but actually leads the team in shot-creating actions (47) and assists (three) while ranking second in shots (27) and crosses (41). He's a prominent corner taker for Palace which also adds to his value in any fantasy format.
Wolves (+233) at Everton (+137) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 0 Wolves
Wolves appointed former Spain and Real Madrid Manager Julen Lopetegui to lead their survival bid and he's certainly got his work cut out to keep Wolves in the Premier League. They're currently bottom of the table with just two wins from their 15 games and a paltry eight goals. They've yet to win an away game so far and have found the net just three times in their seven away games.
Everton's form took a noticeable dip just prior to the break, with just four points taken in their last seven games. That has seen Everton drop down to 17th place in the league and they've failed to score in five of their last six EPL games, blanking in each of their last three.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - No and under 2.5 (+130) 0.25 units
Everton's recent struggles in front of goal are something Wolves have suffered all season. We don't quite know what Lopetegui will do to change that but I'm not expecting goals in this one so a low-scoring affair with at least one of the sides getting blanked seems like a sensible play.
Player to watch: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
The Everton forward has struggled with injuries but started Everton's last four games before the break (scoring once). If Everton is to drag themselves away from a relegation scrap this season, it'll be crucial for Calvert-Lewin to find his goalscoring touch again.
Newcastle United (+125) at Leicester City (+229) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 1 Newcastle United
Newcastle startup after Christmas in third place and with a five-game winning streak to their name. No team has conceded less than them (11) and if it wasn't for a 98th-minute goal at Liverpool back in gameweek 5, they'd be the only unbeaten team in the league.
Leicester's form has been almost as good as their visitors, winning four of their last five games which has helped move them off the bottom of the table and into 13th place. They've kept five clean sheets in their last six games with only Manchester City scoring against them during that spell.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+108) 0.5 units
Leicester's defense was in shambles earlier in the season but five clean sheets in six games have helped in their recovery. Newcastle's goal-scoring form has caught the eye but they have remained stingy at the back and have four clean sheets in their last six EPL games while it's been ten games without conceding more than one.
Player to watch: James Maddison
Maddison's early season form was enough to earn him a call-up to England's World Cup squad. He didn't feature at all during the tournament so will want to remind Head Coach Gareth Southgate of his talents and try to force his way into consideration to add to his solitary international cap.
Brighton (+118) at Southampton (+250) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 2 Brighton
Brighton's form has been erratic, to say the least since Roberto De Zerbi took over. Two wins, two draws and four defeats don't look great but the two wins have come in their last three EPL games and they have a notable 3-3 draw at Liverpool in that period. They've scored nine and conceded eight goals in their last four games as De Zerbi has begun living up to his reputation of his teams playing attacking football.
Southampton has an even newer manager with Nathan Jones having taken over in November and his only game in charge saw Southampton lose 3-1 to Liverpool. They find themselves in 19th place in the table after picking up just five points from their last ten EPL games.
Betting pick: A goal in both halves - Yes (-138) 1 unit
Southampton's 15 EPL games have seen 19 first-half goals and 21 second-half goals. Brighton's 14 EPL games have seen 23 first-half goals and 19 second-half goals. At least one goal in both halves seems like an optimal pick here.
Player to watch: Leandro Trossard
Trossard returned to Brighton much earlier than expected following Belgium's disastrous World Cup campaign. Trossard will be keen to put that behind him and with seven goals this season, he's Brighton's top-scorer while also leading the team in shots (27).
Liverpool (-128) at Aston Villa (+355) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 2 Liverpool
Liverpool's season needs a jolt if they are to get into the top four and qualify for the Champions League next season. They're currently sitting in sixth place, seven points adrift of fourth-placed Tottenham but will be seeking to win a third consecutive EPL game for the first time this season when they get going again on Monday.
Aston Villa's appointment of Unai Emery (replacing Steven Gerrard) raised some eyebrows but since sacking Gerrard, Villa has won three of their four EPL games, scoring nine goals. They only managed seven goals in their first 11 games, so there's been a significant turnaround in front of goal.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Aston Villa (+243) 0.25 units
Even before Gerrard's sacking, Villa's home form wasn't too bad with Chelsea and West Ham the only teams to have beaten them. They had a notable draw with Manchester City but won their two home games under Emery, scoring seven goals and conceding once. Liverpool's form has been erratic and they have struggled with injuries so don't be surprised if the home team pulls off an upset here.
Player to watch: Emiliano Martinez
Martinez was one of the heroes for Argentina as the South Americans won their first World Cup since 1986. His penalty save during the shootout in the final helped secure the trophy after he made a crucial save late in extra time. Liverpool will expect to keep him busy but he's going to be even more full of confidence than normal and could be a key component to any upset on Boxing Day.
West Ham United (+553) at Arsenal (-192) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 0 West Ham United
Arsenal get the resumption underway as the league leaders and could find themselves eight points clear by the end of the day. They were rocked by the injury Gabriel Jesus picked up while at the World Cup with Brazil and their title credentials will be tested as they look to cope without their star striker for the foreseeable future.
West Ham went into the break with one win from their last six EPL games and with a three-game losing streak. Away from home, their form has been very poor with one win, one draw, and five losses, while scoring just three goals on their travels. They have only conceded seven goals away from home but their troubles at the other end of the pitch need addressing if they are to avoid a relegation battle this season.
Betting pick: To score anytime - Eddie Nketiah (+200) 0.25 units
Nketiah is set to deputize for Jesus and certainly looked capable of leading the attack toward the end of last season when he scored five goals in eight starts. Playing time has been hard to come by since Jesus's arrival but he now has the chance to prove himself for a team seeking to challenge for the Premier League title.
Player to watch: Eddie Nketiah
I think I've explained why Nketiah is the one to watch, but he's also relatively discounted in fantasy formats so can provide a discount for you to spend elsewhere and is a nice building block for the coming weeks.
Tuesday, December 27th, 2022
Bournemouth (+946) at Chelsea (-318) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 0 Bournemouth
Bournemouth ended a four-game losing streak when they beat Everton 3-0 in their final game before the break. They somehow lost their previous two games despite scoring five goals in them and even though nine of the goals they've conceded this season came in one game, they've still shipped in 23 goals in their other 14 games.
Chelsea's form since appointing Graham Potter as Head Coach hasn't been what they would've hoped for. Three straight wins were followed by back-to-back draws before they went into the break on a three-game losing streak. They've scored just twice during their five-game winless run and will no doubt see Tuesday's game as an ideal opportunity to get back to scoring ways.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+130) 0.5 units
If Bournemouth was in better form before the break, I might back them to get something from the game, and even with the +1.5 handicap being priced at -109, I'm tempted. But I'll stick with it being a low-scoring game with Chelsea's offensive struggles continuing after Christmas and possibly into 2023.
Player to watch: Reece James
After missing out on a place at the World Cup due to injury, James has a shot at starting for Chelsea on Tuesday. If he does, his delivery from set-pieces could be crucial with Bournemouth leading the league in goals conceded from set-pieces (ten). That could be all the more important given Chelsea's profligacy in front of the goal recently.
Nottingham Forest (+1040) at Manchester United (-325) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 3 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Forest picked up a precious three points in the final game before the break, beating Crystal Palace 1-0. But they're one of only two teams without an away win this season with only one goal scored and 19 conceded on their travels (seven games). That will simply have to change if they are to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.
Manchester United has been showing signs of a return to form this season and after dumping Cristiano Ronaldo following his comments about the club before the World Cup, they will see this as a fresh start and will be eager to solidify their top-four challenge.
Betting pick: Handicap - Manchester United -1.5 (-107) 1 unit
Forest has a 4-0, 5-0, and 6-0 defeat on their ledger this season away from home. Manchester United has kept a clean sheet in three consecutive home league games and picked up 13 points from a possible 15 after losing their season's opening home game, 2-1 to Brighton.
Player to watch: Marcus Rashford
With Ronaldo gone, Rashford will need to continue his good early-season form. He leads the team with four goals (14 games) but will need to improve on that if Manchester United is to push for a top-four spot. He was one of England's best players in a limited role at the World Cup so the signs are promising for Rashford if he does continue to start regularly.
Wednesday, December 28th, 2022
Manchester City (-309) at Leeds United (+824) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 2 Manchester City
Manchester City suffered a shock 2-1 defeat at home to Brentford prior to the break, a defeat that leaves them five points adrift of first-place Arsenal. Their 40 goals scored this season is still by far the most (second is Arsenal with 33) but 30 of them have come at home (eight games) with ten in their six away games.
Leeds' two games prior to the break both ended 4-3, with them being on the right side of one and the wrong side of the other. That was something of a throwback to recent seasons in which Leeds have shipped in goals at an alarming rate while finding the net consistently themselves. If they have a similar type of end-to-end game with Manchester City on Wednesday, it could get ugly for them.
Betting pick: Handicap - Leeds United +1.5 (+106) 0.5 units
Manchester City has only won two of their six away games by more than two goals, and one of those victories came against bottom-of-the-table Wolves with the other being on the opening weekend of the season. Leeds' two home defeats this season were both by one goal so I expect the home side to really push the reigning champions.
Player to watch: Erling Haaland
Haaland had the luxury of a lengthy break to get over some little niggles he suffered before the World Cup. Norway's absence at the tournament could be a huge boost for City if Haaland was able to get fully fit. He has 18 goals already this season but while he's scored a ridiculous 13 goals in eight home games, he "only" has five goals in five games on the road. Something he'll want to improve upon.
Parlays
Both teams to score - Crystal Palace/Fulham, Southampton/Brighton, and Leeds United/Manchester City (+452) 2 units
Moneyline - Everton, Brighton, Manchester United and Manchester City (+793) 1 unit
To score 2+ goals - Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City (+183) 1.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
