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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 15 (December 10, 2022) Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
It was a small week, but I still don't think I did very well. I drank the USC Kool-Aid and wound up passed out on the Strip for three days. Not really...I've still never been to Sin City, but it felt like it. We only have Army-Navy this week for the official end of the college football regular season. What did we learn last week? That the committee doesn't punish teams that lose in the money grabs known as conference championship games. It also proved once and for all that we will NEVER need more than four teams to decide the national champion. I'll explain.
Would anyone have cared about Tennessee and Alabama outside the SEC? What about Georgia-Tennessee? How about TCU and just about everyone they played? National eyes were on those games because they were playoff games. In the middle of the season! The way it should be! No one outside of the really hardcore football addicts cares about the NFL regular season. No one cares about the college basketball regular season. Why? Because you can lose 15 games and still win a championship. No. One. Cares. No one cares about Duke/Kansas in a holiday tournament. It's great basketball, but it doesn't mean anything to people not emotionally invested in either program.
Why do they want to do that, aside from money? Why are most college football fans willing to let them do that to the sport we love? This is the only sport where every game matters. I'm glad that a two-loss team didn't make the playoff this year. Why? Because we don't need it! What is the allure of having a four-loss national champion? It will happen if playoff expansion goes through. At that point, college football will become just like everything else: a shameless money grab with a regular season that no one pays attention to until Thanksgiving. Why are so many people looking forward to that? We won't have a true champion based on a season of greatness. We will have the flavor of the month that gets hot at the right time. That's a great feat, but not really a champion.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 1 (12/10)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
All we have is Army-Navy, but is that not enough?
Army vs. Navy(-2.5) at Philadelphia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm starting off Bowl Season by leaving that four points on there. Tyhier Tyler adds another dimension to that Army offense. Xavier Arline is not Tai Lavatai. His inability to throw means the likelihood of the Middies pulling off a pass when no one expects it is low. I still like Army outright.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 14. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Akron at Buffalo(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Buffalo goes bowling, Akron gets a moral victory. Everyone wins...including me!
North Texas at UTSA(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm upset with myself for picking against Frank Harris. By now, I should know better. This was a total beatdown and Zakhari Franklin reminded anyone watching that he is going to stick at the next level.
(11)Utah vs. (4)USC(-2.5) at Las Vegas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You know, I figured that at some point this season that USC's defense would do them dirty. They have seemingly just been hanging on at times this year. Thomas Yassmin and Jacquinden Jackson stepped on those fingers this time. A monster fourth quarter from the Utes lands them in the Rose Bowl.
(10)Kansas State vs. (3)TCU(-2.5) at Jerry World: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
TCU let the other team out to a two-touchdown lead again. That's nothing new. They couldn't come back this time, but it wasn't for lack of trying. On that third-down play in overtime, I thought he was in. However, I understand why they couldn't reverse that call. They went with what was called on the field. Max Duggan proved to the world what a warrior he is and just how much he grew as a player this year. I remember watching him as a freshman and thinking that he was going to lose his job every week. From that to this is what college is supposed to do to a player. Duggan might latch on with some NFL team now.
Toledo(-1.5) vs. Ohio at Detroit: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It wasn't the Ohio defense that lost this game. It wasn't even really C.J. Harris. Toledo's defense just showed up and dominated the game.
Coastal Carolina at Troy(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Grayson McCall did play. I don't think he was quite 100%, but even if he were, it wouldn't have mattered. CCU couldn't stop the Troy run game. Kimani Vidal was overshadowed by D.K. Billingsley and Gunnar Watson had one of the best games of his career. This wasn't as close as the final score indicated. Troy dominated in every possible way for the first three quarters.
(14)LSU vs. (1)Georgia(-18.5) at Atlanta: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. If I would have known Jayden Daniels wasn't going to play, I might have changed this, but probably not. Georgia proved in this game that they are the best – and most aware – team in the country. Tell me who else would have had the presence of mind to not let that blocked field goal come to rest before picking it up and going for a nice 85-yard jog with practically no one chasing him? LSU thought the play was over. At that time, I knew the game was...
(22)Central Florida at (18)Tulane(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Much as with the UTSA game, I let the first meeting sway my opinion a little too much. I still laid the points on Tulane, but not enough, and not as many as I would have. I'm intrigued by the Cotton Bowl. I want to see what Tulane can do. We all know they beat Kansas State in Manhattan this year. Can they slay another giant?
Fresno State at Boise State(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It wasn't even really Jake Haener that took over this game for Fresno. By his standards, he had a pedestrian game. This was on the Fresno defense and the tough running of Jordan Mims.
Purdue vs. (2)Michigan(-16.5) at Indianapolis: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan does what they do: pull away in the fourth quarter. Purdue gave a valiant effort, but they were just bulldozed by Donovan Edwards and the Michigan line in the second half, particularly the fourth quarter.
(9)Clemson(-7.5) vs. (23)North Carolina at Charlotte: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If I had known that Dabo was going to switch to Cade Klubnik after the first two series of the game, I would have max-bet Clemson. I didn't figure he would do it until the second half, and by then, Carolina would have a decent lead. Can you imagine where this team would be had Klubnik started after he rescued the Syracuse game? It was clear then who the better quarterback was. This is never an easy situation, but Dabo probably should have done with Klubnik what Lincoln Riley did with Caleb Williams last year at Oklahoma. Clemson might be a playoff team right now.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I usually have some troubles with championship week, but I'm usually not drowning in debt from a horrible season when I do so. I went 5-6 this week. What else is new? The 346-387 record is going to be my second-worst in eight years no matter how bowl season shakes out.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 0-0 (53-33) = 20
2. 2-2 (141-164) = -46
3. 2-2 (105-116) = -33
4. 1-2 (32-51) = -76
5. 0-0 (15-23) = -40
I lost another four points this week. By itself, that's not terrible. When you add it to the 171 I've lost on the season, the -175 looks really bad. Because it is.
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