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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 11 (11/12/22). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We have a monster Saturday this week with 53 games going on. Part of me wants to rejoice that I have the chance to make up a lot more ground, but let's be realistic. I have soiled my family name and robbed my piggy bank this year. It has been a rough go of it, but I feel I like a lot of the lines this week. Hopefully, that's a good thing.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top- 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. What I learned from looking at this is that I really need to leave Eastern Michigan the hell alone!
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 11 (11/12)
Indiana at (2)Ohio State(-39.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a lot of points. We know Ohio State is going to score 20 again, but 50? I don't know. 49-10 doesn't even cover this. Give me Indiana, but I'm staying away from this massive spread.
Missouri at (6)Tennessee(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This one might be a touch high. That Missouri offense is still a bit of a mess though and the Missouri D hasn't faced anything quite like this. Give me the Vols.
(7)LSU(-3.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This one screams letdown, but I'm not sure it will be. The Arkansas offense is having issues lately and LSU has played well for the last month or so, not just last week. Give me the Tigers.
(20)Notre Dame(-16.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is down five points already and I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps falling. This could be a letdown for the Irish and Navy has been keeping games close. Navy won't win, but this probably stays around 10-14 points.
Purdue at (21)Illinois(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both teams looked awful last week. Illinois was marginally less awful. Give me the Illini at home.
Vanderbilt at (24)Kentucky(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's not like Kentucky scored a ton of points last week. That offense is still struggling. I know the Vandy defense has had issues, but man, this feels too high. I'm pretty sure it is. Give me the 'Dores.
Oklahoma(-7.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't believe in the Oklahoma defense, but West Virginia is the worst team in the conference and it's really not close. BOOMER!
Liberty(-13.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Honestly, this is a tough one. UConn has been really good at home. Liberty just won in Fayetteville. I feel like I need to stay away from this one. Give me Liberty, but I'm not going to bet it.
Rutgers at Michigan State(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
What Sparty did to Illinois has to be a fluke, right? Rutgers led Michigan at halftime last week. I feel like I should take Rutgers, but I don't like it.
Virginia Tech at Duke(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Hokies have lost the past three games by nine points combined. This is too many. Give me Tech.
Pittsburgh(-9.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both teams are a lot worse than they should be, which means this is going to stay a one-score game. Give me Virginia.
SMU(-17.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
SMU just scored 77 points in regulation and USF lost outright to Temple...by 26 points! Give me SMU.
Louisiana-Monroe at Georgia State(-13,5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Monroe busts spreads. It's what they do. This feels a little high. I'm taking the Warhawks.
James Madison(-7.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Louisville dominating the Dukes is not indicative of the kind of talent that team has. Give me JMU. Louisville is one of those teams that I wouldn't want to face right now.
Rice at Western Kentucky(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Rice is 6-3 against the spread this year and it feels like the Hilltoppers are getting a lot of credit for beating a bad Charlotte team. Does anyone remember what North Texas did to them a couple of weeks ago? I think this is too many. Give me the Owls.
Massachusetts at Arkansas State(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This has to be too many, doesn't it? The Red Wolves have only covered one team by this (Grambling in the opener). UMass didn't even lose to UConn by this. I can't believe I'm doing this but give me the Minutemen...and I actually feel pretty good about it.
Temple at Houston(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No part of me trusts that Houston defense. Give me Temple.
Nebraska at (3)Michigan(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high to me. Nebraska only let Mo Ibrahim get one run over 10 yards. It went for 11. The Cornhusker defense has really shored up their run defense and Michigan doesn't throw unless they really need to. This feels like a game that Michigan grinds out. I see it staying closer to 20 than 30. Give me Nebraska.
(9)Alabama(-11.5) at (11)Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line feels bogus. Alabama doesn't lose back-to-back games, but a double-digit road favorite against a team ranked two slots below them? I don't buy it. Give me Ole Miss to keep this close.
Louisville at (10)Clemson(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I think I like Louisville here. They are playing well and Clemson just struggled to move the ball...again. I don't know that I would go as far as to take them outright, but this should stay within a touchdown.
Maryland at Penn State(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Under normal circumstances, I would probably ride the Terps. That said, they have played so poorly lately that it's easier for me to overlook that half. Give me Penn State.
Boston College at (16)North Carolina State(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
BC has been terrible for more than a month now. Give me the Pack.
(22)Central Florida at (17)Tulane(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. Tulane handled the ECU team that blew out UCF a couple of weeks ago. I'm riding the Wave again!
Arizona State at Washington State(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know...this feels like a bit of an overcorrection for Wazzu blowing out a below-average Stanford team. Give me Arizona State.
Iowa State(-1.5) at Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
News about Spencer Sanders is critical here, but we're not going to get any. Many now fear that the shoulder injury that Sanders suffered against Kansas State could end his season. Vegas obviously feels that way. I'm taking the Cowboys for four points in Sanders plays. If he doesn't, which is the most likely scenario, I'm taking the Cyclones even though many sharps are on Okie State at home.
Army at Troy(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Troy is 8-1 against the spread this year. Army only has three spread wins and two are against FCS teams. I'm taking Troy.
Wisconsin at Iowa(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wisconsin feels like the better team, but it's not as obvious as it was a couple of weeks ago. I'm lowering the bet a little, but still taking the Badgers.
Northwestern at Minnesota(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's hard to trust the Minnesota offense right now, especially since Tanner Morgan is having issues staying on the field. It's going to be brisk but clear in Minneapolis. That means Northwestern doesn't have the weather to help them out here. Give me the Gophers.
Miami(FL) at Georgia Tech(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ouch. Two ugly teams and an ugly line to go with it. I don't think Tech can burn Miami deep to win this though. Give me the Canes.
New Mexico at Air Force(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is all over the place I've seen it anywhere from 20 to 25 points. This feels a touch high, but I'm not betting on this. Give me New Mexico, I guess...
Appalachian State at Marshall(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't think so. I still like the Mountaineers outright. They can pass to win and I'm not sure Marshall can.
Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is still too low. Give me MTSU.
Louisiana Tech at UTSA(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still trust the Roadrunners. Give me UTSA.
North Texas at UAB(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm a little bit surprised by this line given how well North Texas has played lately. I think I still like the Mean Green outright.
South Carolina at Florida(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both teams looked good last week, but Florida is getting too much credit for beating Haynes King. We all know how bad he is by now. Give me the Cocks.
Texas State at South Alabama(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bobcats have made a living busting spreads over the last month. This feels high, but I don't feel good enough about it to bet it.
(1)Georgia(-16.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low, cowbells be damned. Give me Georgia.
(25)Washington at (6)Oregon(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Washington defense hasn't played well enough to think Oregon can't cover this. Give me the Ducks.
(19)Kansas State at Baylor(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Really? I don't buy this. Not yet. Give me Kansas State.
Kansas at Texas Tech(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Jalon Daniels is able to play, I'm taking Kansas. If not, give me Tech.
Wyoming(-8.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This looks low as well as Wyoming can run the ball. Yes, the Rams are showing signs of life, but I still like the Cowboys by double figures.
Florida Atlantic(-15.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too many points in a rivalry game, especially since the Owls aren't playing all that well. Give me FIU at home, but I don't think they win outright.
(4)TCU at (18)Texas(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
TCU is still getting no respect from Vegas. Why? Everyone is still betting the name. Not me. Give me the Toadies outright!
(15)North Carolina at Wake Forest(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I don't buy this either. Louisville took something from Wake in that third quarter that they don't have back yet. Give me UNC outright.
Texas A&M at Auburn(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Sorry, Cadillac. Conner Weigman is back and so is the A&M offense. Aggies by double digits!
Southern Mississippi at Coastal Carolina(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line has cratered with the news that Grayson McCall will miss the rest of the regular season. I still like CCU in this one, but I'm lowering the bet a touch.
(23)Florida State(-7.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jordan Travis is going to be a problem for the Orange. Give me Florida State.
California at Oregon State(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That Cal offense has been better than advertised for much of the season. I'll take the Bears to not lose by double digits.
Stanford at (13)Utah(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, Stanford looked bad last week. With all of the injuries they have, that's understandable. I'm still taking Utah, though.
Arizona at (12)UCLA(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is up five points, and I wouldn't be shocked if it went higher. That means Zack Charbonnet is playing and the small chance that Arizona had is now non-existent. Give me UCLA.
Boise State(-20.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Pack are playing better with Shane Illingworth taking snaps. I'm taking Boise, but I don't trust it at all.
San Jose State(-2.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I still like the Aztecs outright, but I'm not confident enough to bet on it.
Utah State(-10.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Aggies aren't all that explosive, but can they really stop Calvin Tyler? I have my doubts. Give me the Aggies.
I dabbled a little more in the middle this week. I have nine one-pointers again this week. I have 28 on the two lines and 19 more on the threes. I went with five four-point bets this week and went a little lighter with only three max bets. Good luck out there!
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