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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 11 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 10/14/2022. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We managed to pick up a small profit last weekend but missed out on a big weekend with two near-misses on our parlays. Brighton failed to score in one and Leicester City blew a half-time lead in the other, which ultimately saw us miss out on more than doubling our money. The games are going to come thick and fast in the next ten days so let's buckle down and see if we can't pick things up a bit.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 41-46
- Total picks: 39-42-6
- Parlays: 3-12
- ROI: 96.79% (-2.25 units)
Friday, October 14th, 2022
Brighton (+142) at Brentford (+213) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 2 Brighton
Brentford suffered a 5-1 hammering at Newcastle United last week and have taken just one point from their last three games. Seven of their ten points have come at home this season with top-of-the-table Arsenal being the only team to take three points away at Brentford.
Brighton lost their first game in the De Zerbi reign last weekend, falling 1-0 at home to Tottenham. It was a familiar tale for Brighton, playing lots of attractive football, creating chances but just not taking them. They have now conceded eight goals in their last four EPL games too.
Betting pick: Total goals - Over 2.5 (+103) 0.7 units
I'm a bit worried about Brighton's profligacy last weekend, something that haunted them for most of last season. But Brentford have conceded five goals in their last two home games and after back-to-back blanks, at least got back into the goals scored column last weekend. If both teams' offenses click like we've seen them do this season, this could be a high-scoring affair.
Player to watch: Leandro Trossard
The Belgian international couldn't follow up his hat trick at Anfield but remains Brighton's top scorer with five goals this season, four of which have come on the road. Last season, Trossard scored five of his eight goals in away games and found the net in both fixtures against Brentford.
Saturday, October 15th, 2022
Crystal Palace (+216) at Leicester City (+136) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 2 Crystal Palace
Leicester once again blew a lead last weekend, falling to Bournemouth after being ahead 1-0 at half-time. They find themselves at the foot of the table despite scoring in eight of their nine EPL games and their 24 goals conceded are still the most in the league.
Palace had a tough set of fixtures to start the season but got back to winning ways at home to Leeds United last weekend, securing a 2-1 win with a late winner. They have only played three away games, but have two draws with one loss (coming at Manchester City).
Betting pick: Corners handicap - Crystal Palace 0 (+139) 0.5 units
I've not got a great feeling about this game as I just don't know what Leicester performance we'll see week-to-week. But the corners market appeals, with Leicester having conceded the fourth most (53) this season and have yet to take more corners than their opponents in any of their four home games.
Player to watch: Harvey Barnes
James Maddison has been the main source of goals for Leicester this season but someone else will need to step up if they are to avoid relegation. Barnes ranks second in the team for shots (18) but is only sixth in shot-creating actions (nine) and after tallying ten assists last season, is still looking for his first this campaign.
Bournemouth (+326) at Fulham (-114) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Bournemouth
Fulham suffered a third defeat in four games, losing 3-1 at West Ham United last weekend. That made it 11 goals conceded in their last four games and they are now without a clean sheet in their last seven EPL games. Both teams have scored in eight of their nine games so far this season.
Bournemouth's resurgence continued last weekend with their come-from-behind win against Leicester City. They're unbeaten in five games since losing 9-0 at Liverpool and sacking Scott Parker with just four goals conceded in those five games.
Betting pick: Handicap - Bournemouth +0.5 (+106) 1 unit
Bournemouth have certainly found some form after their Anfield humiliation while Fulham have been struggling a bit of late. During the two teams' promotion campaigns last season, both fixtures between them ended in 1-1 draws and I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat again here. Their respective form doesn't seem to be reflected in the odds.
Player to watch: Philip Billing
Billing made it three goals in four games last weekend and he picked up an assist in this fixture last season. His three goals this season have come from just six shots and he scored ten and assisted ten last season. Billing represents Bournemouth's best route to goal again this weekend.
Nottingham Forest (+456) at Wolves (-146) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Wolves are still managerless at the time of writing and last weekend saw them lose without scoring for a third successive game. Their only home defeat came against Manchester City and Newcastle United are the only other team to have scored at Wolves this season.
Forest moved off the bottom spot with a 1-1 draw at home to Aston Villa on Monday but their early season away form is atrocious. In four road games, Forest have one point and scored one goal, while conceding 13 (ten of which have come in their last two away games).
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Under 3.5 goals and under 10.5 corners (+120) 0.7 units
These are the two lowest-scoring teams in the league, combining for just ten goals in 18 games. Forest have failed to take more than two corners in three of their four away games while Wolves have not had more than five corners in any of their four home games and haven't taken more than six in any fixture.
Player to watch: Daniel Podence
Podence has scored two of Wolves' three goals this season while leading the team in shots (14). It's difficult to really get excited about any of the 22 players on the pitch but Podence likely carries the best chance Wolves will have to get on the scoresheet.
Everton (+603) at Tottenham (-201) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 0 Everton
While Tottenham haven't been convincing on their travels, they have a 100% record from their four home games, with 13 goals scored and four conceded. Their only home clean sheet came against the league's lowest scorers (Wolves) but won this fixture 5-0 last season and have only lost one of the last 19 EPL fixtures with Everton.
Everton fell to a 2-1 defeat at home to Manchester United last Sunday and have now failed to score more than once in a game in eight of their nine EPL games. They haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their four away games and as mentioned, have a dreadful record against Tottenham.
Betting pick: To score 2+ goals - Harry Kane (+390) 0.5 units AND Single game parlay - Tottenham to win, Tottenham over 1.5 goals and Tottenham over 5.5 corners (+140) 0.5 units
I was torn about which bet to go with so I'm hedging with both. Only Wolves have prevented Tottenham from scoring two at home this season, while they have taken six or more corners in all four home games (averaging 8.5 corners per game).
Kane has scored in his last four EPL games and has found the net in each of his last three home league games. He's scored 13 times in 14 games against Everton, which includes six braces in his last nine outings against them.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
As mentioned, he has a remarkable record against Everton, especially scoring multiple times in a game. He's been in good goal-scoring form and will fancy keeping up his goal-scoring streak this weekend.
Sunday, October 16th, 2022
Chelsea (-126) at Aston Villa (+394) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 2 Chelsea
Villa's 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest on Monday left them without an away win in five games this season but they have seven points from their four home games. All four games have been decided by one goal and their last four games have seen them score just three goals while conceding two.
Since taking charge at Chelsea, Graham Potter has won four games in all competitions (two EPL and two Champions League). They've scored two or more in each and kept three clean sheets. In their eight games under Thomas Tuchel this season, they failed to do both in any game.
Betting pick: Total goals range - 2-3 goals (+106) 0.7 units
All four of Chelsea's games under Potter have seen two or three goals with that being true for their last six EPL games. There have been two or three goals in five of Villa's nine games this season and with what looks like being a tight game again, it seems reasonable to think it'll be a similar outcome here.
Player to watch: Mason Mount
Mount has found some form under Potter, and he followed up his two-assist performance last Saturday with an assist against Milan on Tuesday. He's almost a lock for a place in England's World Cup squad but he'll need to continue this form to be assured of a place in the starting XI.
Arsenal (-170) at Leeds United (+492) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 0 - 2 Arsenal
Arsenal's impressive start to the season continued with a 3-2 win at home to Liverpool on Sunday. They showed resilience to win the game after being pegged back twice and they reclaimed top spot in the table. The 3-1 defeat at Manchester United remains the only blot on their record so far.
Leeds are winless in their last five games following last Sunday's 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace. They have drawn both home games in that run and lost the three away games. They are unbeaten at home this season (four games), conceding just twice.
Betting pick: Handicap - Arsenal -1.5 (+157) 0.7 units
I'm a little concerned that Arsenal might be a bit sluggish after two high-intensity wins against Tottenham and Liverpool but they look like the most likely team to challenge Manchester City for the title. Their three away wins this season were all accompanied by clean sheets while scoring two or more. They've now scored three goals in each of their last three EPL games.
Player to watch: Bukayo Saka
Arsenal have shared the goals around this season, with nine different players finding the net in the league. Gabriel Jesus has been carrying a knock and isn't certain to start this game which will put the onus more on Saka, Martinelli and Odegaard (who have combined for ten goals and seven assists). Saka scored a brace last weekend and is the team's penalty taker so he has a slight edge for me this weekend, but any of the trio should be fine options.
Newcastle United (+270) at Manchester United (+101) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 2 Newcastle United
Manchester United bounced back from their 6-3 Manchester derby humbling the week before, grinding out a 2-1 win at Everton on Sunday. They've scored in seven of their eight games this season, but they still look like a work in progress.
After scoring eight goals in their first seven games this season, Newcastle have scored nine goals in their last two games. While Manchester City and Liverpool are the only two teams to have scored more than once against them this season, Newcastle only have one clean sheet on their travels and just one in their last seven games.
Betting pick: Race to 5 corners - Newcastle United (+185) 0.5 units
This is an interesting game on paper and will be a good indication of where both clubs are right now. But it's the corners market that intrigues me the most. Newcastle (70) lead the league in corners while Manchester United (27) have had the fewest. Newcastle have taken eight or more corners in each of their last four games while Manchester United haven't had more than four corners in any of their last five games.
Player to watch: Antony
Manchester United's Summer acquisition has now scored in each of his three EPL games for the club and has had a total of ten shots, five of which have been on target. With plenty of exciting attacking players on display, the $85 million signing could shine brightest.
West Ham United (+146) at Southampton (+198) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 2 West Ham United
Southampton comes into the weekend on the back of four straight defeats and with only one goal scored in that run. They are the only Premier League team without a clean sheet this season and manager Ralph Hasenhüttl might be on borrowed time if they fail to take anything from this game.
West Ham made it back-to-back wins with their 3-1 victory against Fulham last time out and have now scored five of their eight goals in their last two games. After failing to score in their opening three games of the season, they've found the net in five of their last six, but only have one clean sheet in that span.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Both teams under 2.5 goals and both teams over 3.5 corners (+155) 0.7 units
Both teams have struggled for goals this season, scoring just eight goals apiece. West Ham's four away games have seen neither side score more than two with the same being true of Southampton's four home games. Southampton have taken five or more corners in each of their last three home games while West Ham averages 6.5 corners a game on their travels.
Player to watch: Gianluca Scamacca
West Ham's Summer signing had a slow start to his West Ham career but he's started and scored in their last two league games. West Ham's three wins are the only games in which the Italian has started and he's scored four goals in five Europa Conference League games. He looks in form and I fancy him to score again this week.
Manchester City (-125) at Liverpool (+323) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 2 Manchester City
The game of the weekend wraps up Matchweek 11 and Liverpool could find themselves 17 points adrift at the top of the table with a loss. They're winless in their last three league games but despite their poor form, have yet to lose at home this season.
Manchester City have been sensational at home, winning all five games while scoring 24 goals. But it's been a different story away from home with two wins, two draws and nine goals scored from four games. A win all but guarantees they'll finish above Liverpool this season, even with 29 games remaining.
Betting pick: Double chance - Liverpool or draw (+112) 0.5 units
It's safe to expect goals in this one and it's a fixture that has seen plenty with 23 goals coming in their last six EPL meetings. But I'm going to hedge Liverpool to take something from the game. Pep Guardiola intimated that some players in the squad are tired and Liverpool's desperation to get something from this game could see the home team drag themselves over the line in the later stages.
Player to watch: Roberto Firmino
Firmino is Liverpool's top scorer this season with six goals, five coming in three games at home. Injury to Luis Diaz should see Firmino returning to the starting XI after he came off the bench to score against Arsenal last weekend and could be crucial if Liverpool is to get something from the game.
Parlays
Both teams to score: Leicester City/Crystal Palace, Fulham/Bournemouth & Liverpool/Manchester City (+378) 1 unit
Moneyline: Chelsea, Tottenham and West Ham United to win (+560) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
