RADIO
We’re just about a quarter of the way through the year, and we finally have enough data to start filling out trends this NFL season.
So far, we have concrete evidence that the Bills are as good as we expected (if not better), but also the running back position is not as dominant as in previous years for fantasy. With only 10 backs averaging more than 15 points per game, it’s looking like the wide receiver position has made a comeback.
With 10 receivers also averaging more than 15 fantasy points, there seem to be two big names missing from that list. Davante Adams and Ja’Marr Chase have had relatively slow starts to the season. Considering there are nearly 40 receivers averaging 10 or more fantasy points, these two are not making the difference we had hoped for. So what should we do with them? Let’s dive into the analytics.
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This Season
So far in 2022, Adams and Chase have averaged 15 and 14.2 fantasy points per game, respectively. Considering Adams was averaging 19.7 over the last eight weeks last year, and Chase was averaging 15.5 over his entire rookie season, we were really hoping for more from both. However, I’m guaranteeing that both players are still atop the position and it’s only a matter of time before they find their footing again. After all, the law of averages makes it so that when these two bounce back, they are going to light the world on fire.
Davante Adams
Let’s start with Davante Adams. It’s tough comparing his performance to last year as a lot has changed for the veteran wide receiver. After moving from the only option in Green Bay with Hall of Fame Aaron Rodgers at the helm to Vegas with “future Hall of Fame” (according to Adams) Derek Carr, we could expect a dip in production. What is interesting is that Adams is averaging a ridiculous 12 targets per game in Vegas. That’s one target more than he was averaging last season.
The other side of this equation is yardage totals. Yardage is typically where you’ll find consistency at the receiver position, so it’s more than encouraging to see Adams have 28% of Carr’s passing yards through four weeks. Although this is well below the 38% of yards he had with Aaron Rodgers, it’s still an elite share.
Ja'Marr Chase
Now let’s move to the young star Ja’Marr Chase. Over the last two weeks, Chase has failed to crack the top-30 at the position. After breaking fantasy metrics for rookie receivers last season, Chase has managed two touchdowns in four games and two games with less than 60 yards. However, before we start worrying, we need to talk about targets. In 2021, Chase was averaging 7.5 targets per game and finished 17th in targets at the position. This year is a different story. Tied for sixth in the league for targets at the position, Chase has demanded an impressive 10 targets per game. That’s good enough for 44% of Joe Burrow’s targets to the WR position.
Despite this domination of WR targets, he is behind Tee Higgins in yards. Unlike last season, we have seen an increase in volume but a decrease in efficiency and big plays. After watching all of his targets this season, it’s clear that the numbers don’t tell the whole story. There are multiple times that Burrow has looked downfield at his top receiver and either overthrown him or Chase has failed to make the catch. It’s only a matter of time until he starts connecting on some of these big plays, and this week against a porous Ravens defense might be a great opportunity.
The X Factor Statistic
Now, this is where the fun begins. We’ve seen that both players are still commanding elite target shares in their respective offenses. But what about the most valuable targets on the field? I’m talking red zone targets, so buckle up your seat belts as we’re about to shatter the current belief about these players. In 2021, Adams had a 64% catch rate in the red zone and was commanding nearly two red zone targets a game. Through four games this season, his catch percentage has dropped to 46.2% (most likely a result of Derek Carr), but he is averaging a league-leading 3.2 red zone targets per game!
As for Ja’Marr Chase, you could probably guess that it’s a similar situation. This season, he is tied for third in the league, averaging two red zone targets per game. This is well above his 0.8 red zone targets per game last season. The key difference here is that his catch rate has dropped from 83% in 2021 to 38% this season. Although he still has game-breaking ability, the trend this season looks like he won’t just be relying on the big plays. Although we have not seen it yet, the increase in targets should make Chase a more consistent play for fantasy, plus it’s inevitable that Burrow and Chase will start connecting near the goal line.
Time to Trade
All of the underlying metrics when it comes to target share, yards, and red zone usage indicate that these players returning to the top-five at the position over the coming weeks. However, what good is this information if they are sitting on another team? Well, it’s always difficult acquiring these types of players, but it’s never impossible. Here are some of the players I’d be willing to capitalize on and bring in one of these elite receivers.
Running backs are always hard to part with, but as I mentioned above, they don’t seem to be as valuable this year as they have in the past. If you’re able to accept this, it might make what I’m about to say an easier pill to swallow. The two backs that jump out to me as trade-high candidates are Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler. Henry has started to find his footing, but the team is nowhere near as strong as it has been in the past.
He’s a good option but I think his elite days might be slipping away. As for Ekeler, after a monster Week 4 performance, it’s easy to dismiss that he was splitting a majority of the touches with his backfield mates in the weeks prior. I love Ekeler, but he just went against one of the worst run defenses in the league that was torched by a backup RB the week before. If the team with either Adams or Chase needs a back, it could be worth your while.
Wide receivers are where this starts to get interesting. It’s near impossible to do a one-for-one trade at the same position unless the fantasy manager has some sort of fan affiliation justifying the lateral move. However, here are some players I think could be worth reaching out to. The two names that come to my mind first are both Miami receivers. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are second and fourth, respectively, at the position.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise since they have combined for seven touchdowns and over 850 receiving yards. However, these metrics are heavily skewed by their incredible Week 2 performance, where Tua Tagovailoa threw for nearly 500 yards and six TDs. That's not happening again this year. Plus, with Tua Tagovailoa injured for the near future, you might need to add a piece to get the deal done, but regression should be coming for these two even when Tua is back.
Lastly, I would like to emphasize that these moves largely depend on your team makeup as well as your trade partner. Whether these moves can help you in redraft or DFS, it’s worth noting that Adams and Chase shouldn’t be counted out just yet.
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