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Jon Anderson looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers and potential sleepers for the rest of the fantasy baseball season, written in week 21 of the season. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
Welcome back to another edition of my "Breakout Hitters To Watch" series. We probably only have one or two weeks left of this series after today, and I really appreciate RotoBaller for letting me putting it on, and I especially appreciate those of you who have read along with it all season! It's something we will be bringing back for next year, thanks for the positive feedback!
Breakouts are a bit hard to come by right now, and we don't even really have enough time in the season left to do hindsight to see if were right. But we are seeing some top prospects get called up as the calendar turns to September, so we'll highlight those names for you in this post.
Before we get to the names this week, I've included a brief intro and also a recap of all the names we've talked about throughout the year in this weekly piece.
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Fantasy Baseball Breakouts Recap
Here are all of the names I've recommended so far.
Breakout Picks for the Week 21
Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays
This isn't really a recommendation for 2022, because Jansen just can't find himself enough playing time to matter in fantasy. However, he is someone to keep in the back of your head for the future, because what this guy has done at the plate this year is really impressive.
Only two hitters in the league have racked up more than 100 PAs while having a barrel rate above 15% and a strikeout rate below 20%.
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) August 30, 2022
Yordan Alvarez is one (19.7% Brl%, 19.8% K%)
Danny Jansen is the other (18.0% Brl%, 17.6% K%)
He has just 157 plate appearances this season, but he has been a seriously effective power hitter in that time, as you can see by the tweet above. Jansen is just 27 years old, and he will be a free agent this offseason.
I imagine there's a decent chance he goes to another team this offseason to play DH for them, and he could prove to be a very useful fantasy hitter for a cheap cost next season. Again, he's not someone to add for 2022 unless we see something happen with Alejandro Kirk soon, but he's a decent buy in dynasty leagues right now if you're in a league like that.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
This is also not a super useful tidbit for most people because competitive leagues know about Carroll, and he's almost certainly been scooped up. However, if you're in a more relaxed league – Carroll may be there for you. He is one of the top prospects in the entire league.
Through 437 PAs in the minors, Carroll hit .309/.426/.616 with 24 homers and 30 steals. At the top level (AAA), he slashed .294/.408/.548 with seven of those homers in 152 PAs. He's already put up some stats in his few games with the Snakes, and he's certainly going to be in the lineup every day as he's a huge part of the Diamondbacks' seemingly bright future.
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
If Carroll isn't the number one hitting prospect in baseball, then it's Henderson. The Orioles infielder will get a crack at the majors this week, and he's had a very impressive season. Between AA and AAA ball, he has slashed .300/.418/.536 with 19 homers and 22 steals.
It's important to note through all of this that tons of hitters steal bases in the minors, way more so than in the majors. I wouldn't count on a guy being a steals source just because he has 20+ steals in the minors, but it's certainly something in his game – so that's good to see.
Henderson's 22.7% K% and 15.7% BB% are encouraging, and the .395 wOBA in International League play made him one of the most effective players there was. It's obviously a huge step up to face Major League pitching, but Henderson's upside justifies a pickup right now in any league.
Wednesday night update: he homered in his first plate appearance!
Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks
Another piece of the D'Backs bright future may be McCarthy, who has been really impressive in the bigs this year. His calling card for fantasy is the stolen base, as he's swiped 10 bases since the All-Star break to lead the entire league (tied with Cedric Mullins at the time of this writing). But, unlike some of the other steals guys, that's not all he can offer.
His 72.8% contact% is a solid number and he's put up a nice 21.2% K% to boot. Since the break, he has an elite 13.6% K% and a 76.1% contact rate while slashing .325/.386/.462. He's homered just three times over that span, and the low barrel rate around 2% suggests that he won't be a home run hitter moving forward, but this guy can rack up some counting stats near the top of that Diamondbacks lineup while stealing a ton of bags and hitting for a good batting average.
He's also much less "sexy" than these other top prospects coming up, meaning you can probably get your hands on him – and there's a pretty good chance he's a better fantasy player than the rest of these names for the rest of 2022.
Bubba Thompson, Texas Rangers
Thompson ran wild all year long in the minors, stealing 48 bases in 370 plate appearances. He also got on base at a .354 clip which supported that high steals count. He was called up by the Rangers a few weeks ago and since has stolen eight more bases while slashing .261/.311/.319. He has just one homer and it really doesn't seem like he'll be a decent power hitter in the majors right now, but he's been able to get on base enough to be near the league leaders in steals since the call-up.
The downsides are that he hasn't quite been an everyday player, and he's hit in the nine-hole when he has started, but if you need a source of steals for the rest of the season, there are few better options than Thompson – and he's probably free in your league right now.
And that's it for this week's breakout picks, hope this helps. Good luck this week, RotoBallers!
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