RADIO
Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 6 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 9/03/2022. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Midweek was incredibly frustrating. We bagged just two winners (with two voids), missing out on the other eight games by one goal for either the home team or either side. That included the two parlays, one missing out by a goal and one bet denied by a 98th-minute goal. Frustrating to say the least, but we go again this weekend.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 25-25
- Total picks: 20-24-5
- Parlays: 2-6
- ROI: 97.74% (-0.77 units)
Saturday, September 03rd, 2022
Liverpool (-229) at Everton (+661) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 0 - 1 Liverpool
Everton remains winless but enters the Merseyside Derby unbeaten in three games after their third consecutive 1-1 draw. They have only conceded six goals having improved the defensive personnel in the preseason but continue to lack goals, having scored only four this season.
Liverpool managed their second straight win, although the two games couldn't be more contrasting. Following a 9-0 victory against Bournemouth, they had to come from behind and score a 98th-minute winner against Newcastle in midweek.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Everton under 1.5 goals and Liverpool under 2.5 goals (-115) 1 unit
Everton's struggles to score goals continue and they have yet to score more than one in a game. Liverpool's 9-0 win aside, they've scored six goals in four games and failed to score more than twice in those games. Derbies are generally tight affairs and on the back of midweek fixtures, this one could be tighter than the oddsmakers will have you believe.
Player to watch: Mo Salah
Salah didn't score or assist any of Liverpool's nine goals against Bournemouth and only picked up an assist in midweek. He's yet to catch fire this season but has three goals in his last two trips to Goodison Park and will want to really kick-start his season.
Leeds United (+242) at Brentford (+117) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 1 Leeds United
Brentford came from behind to secure a late draw at Crystal Palace in midweek, their third draw of the season. They've scored in each of their five games so far (ten in total) while their solitary clean sheet came against Manchester United.
Leeds battled back to a 1-1 draw at home to Everton in midweek after losing top scorer Rodrigo early on with a shoulder injury. Patrick Bamford did return and came on as a late sub but after a hot start, they've scored just once in their last two games and seven of their eight points so far have come at home.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-149) 1 unit
While I can see Leeds picking up a point on the road, it's difficult to see them winning the game and Brentford are justifiably favorites. Both teams have goals in them and last season's contests ended 2-1 and 2-2 so I'm plumping for both teams to find the net again this weekend.
Player to watch: Ivan Toney
Toney has two goals this season but has failed to score in either of Brentford's home games and will want to correct that on Saturday. He's only had two shots on target this season (nine shots in total) and Brentford will want to find more ways to create chances given his finishing prowess.
West Ham United (+545) at Chelsea (-185) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 1 West Ham United
Chelsea dropped more points in midweek, blowing a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 at Southampton which prompted Head Coach Thomas Tuchel to publically criticize the players. They responded by going out and bringing in more recruits before the transfer deadline but they still look disjointed right now.
West Ham followed up their first win of the season with a solid draw at home to Tottenham, a game they will feel they should've won. They have only scored two goals but following their own goal in midweek, it's consecutive games without an opponent scoring against them.
Betting pick: Double chance - West Ham United or draw (+166) 0.5 units
With the Champions League game on Tuesday, Chelsea might have half an eye on that tie but they've looked very average so far this season and will need to be at their best to win this game. West Ham caused Tottenham all sorts of problems in midweek and will look to take advantage of Chelsea's struggles. A win might be too much of an ask so we'll hedge a bit.
Player to watch: Reece James
Illness saw James miss out on the midweek fixture and Chelsea missed his attacking threat down the right flank. He already has a goal and assist to his name and has been one of the few bright spots in the season so far.
Crystal Palace (+287) at Newcastle United (+105) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 0 Crystal Palace
Newcastle succumbed to their first defeat of the season in the contentious 2-1 loss at Liverpool. After three straight draws, they haven't won since the opening weekend but have now played last year's top-2, nearly taking a point from both games and they continue to be a tough nut to crack.
Crystal Palace conceded a late equalizer to draw with Brentford in midweek but have had arguably the toughest start to the season with games against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool. They are difficult to play against but are yet to keep a clean sheet.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Newcastle United (+105) 1 unit
This looks like being a close encounter on paper but I'm slightly surprised that Newcastle are at plus odds. Liverpool became only the third team to score more than once in a game against Newcastle in 2022 and their defensive solidity should set them up for the win on Saturday.
Player to watch: Alexander Isak
Newcastle's record signing was almost the hero in midweek, scoring a debut goal to give Newcastle the lead before they ultimately lost. He'll need to continue scoring goals to justify the hefty price tag but he's certainly got his Newcastle career off to a good start.
Bournemouth (+289) at Nottingham Forest (+103) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2 - 0 Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest have completely rebuilt their squad with an incredible 20+ new signings prior to the transfer deadline passing. And they'll hope they strike gold with most of the signings as with just four points and two goals scored, they need to win games like this to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.
Bournemouth are in shambles right now. After their 9-0 hammering at Liverpool, Manager Scott Parker was sacked but they stopped the rot with a goalless draw against Wolves in midweek. It's now four games without a goal and still a squad that looks lacking in enough quality to keep them from being relegated.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (-126) 1 unit
As much as I think Forest win the game, Bournemouth held out against Wolves and Forest have been similarly inept in front of goal as Wolves. So I can see a 0-0 draw being played out. But I think the home fans can help drive on their team but however the game plays out, goals look like being at a premium with both teams combining for just four so far this season.
Player to watch: Neco Williams
The wing-back leads Forest in shots (11) while also taking free-kicks and corners, with set pieces being a possible route to goal for a team struggling to find the net in open play. He's a candidate to keep a clean sheet and have a hand in a goal making him an appealing play.
Fulham (+561) at Tottenham Hotspur (-191) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 1 - 0 Fulham
Tottenham labored to a 1-1 draw at Wet Ham on Wednesday and haven't looked particularly good in an attacking sense since their opening weekend 4-1 win against Southampton. Their two clean sheets have come against teams with only two goals scored so they are doing enough but will want to pick up their form soon.
Fulham have impressed so far and have played three teams in the current top-5, with the 2-1 defeat at Arsenal last weekend being their sole loss on the season. They only have one point from their two away games and will need to work out how to pick up more points on the road if they are to steer clear of relegation.
Betting pick: Draw no bet first half - Fulham (+282) 0.5 units
Fulham haven't trailed at halftime in any of their five games while Tottenham have scored six of their ten goals in the second half. Fulham's resoluteness and Tottenham's stuttering attack make me feel this will be a tight encounter but the home side should ultimately have enough quality to find a winner in the second half.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
Son Heung-min has yet to find the net this season. With last year's joint top scorer in the EPL struggling for form, Kane has picked up the slack, scoring four of Tottenham's last five goals and the other coming courtesy of an own goal from a Kane cross.
Southampton (+249) at Wolves (+124) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 0 Southampton
Wolves have just two goals and three points to start the season and it's obvious they will struggle to score goals, just like last season. But they have the second-best defensive record with just four goals conceded in another apparent repeat of last season.
Southampton have a solid seven points to begin the season but remains without a clean sheet and their 4.7 xG is the fifth-fewest in the league. Wolves are such a difficult team to break down that Southampton may struggle to find a route to goal.
Betting pick: Total goals each half - Under 1.5 (+120) 0.5 units
Goals at Wolves' games are such a premium, with three of the six coming in the open weekend and since then, there has there been more than one goal in any half of their games. I just don't see a scenario whereby goals are aplenty and this bet takes advantage of the expected low goals count.
Player to watch: Raul Jimenez
If Wolves are to avoid a long and arduous season near the bottom of the table, they simply have to start scoring and Jimenez remains their best bet to do so. He was the club's top scorer last season with just six goals and will be desperate to improve on that tally this season.
Manchester City (-280) at Aston Villa (+764) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0 - 3 Manchester City
Aston Villa's poor form late last season has carried into this one and following Wednesday's 2-1 defeat at Arsenal, they have just three wins from their last 16 EPL games. Unfortunately, they now face the champions who have scored 19 goals in their opening five league games.
Manchester City's goal-scoring threat has gone into overdrive with the arrival of Erling Haaland who has back-to-back hat-tricks and his nine goals are more than what 15 teams have managed. They do average only 2.5 goals on the road and 4.67 at home so far, so you could argue their away goal-scoring form is only great and not insane.
Betting pick: Handicap - Manchester City -1.5 (+103) 1 unit
I'm normally not as bullish on Manchester City away from home but they continue to score goals at will and although Aston Villa only went down 2-1 at Arsenal on Wednesday, they really could've trailed 4-0 at half-time. There's a negative aura around Villa at the moment and no team in Europe is better poised to take advantage of that.
Player to watch: Erling Haaland
Is he the obvious choice? Yes. But nine goals in five games and back-to-back hat-tricks isn't something you ignore. Sometimes you have to go with the chalk as if he fires in another couple of goals, you'll be left ruing not playing him.
Sunday, September 04th, 2022
Leicester City (+351) at Brighton (-113) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 2 - 1 Leicester City
Brighton suffered their first defeat of the season in midweek, going down 2-1 at Fulham. That ended their run of three straight clean sheets but their three goals conceded this season is still the fewest in the league.
Leicester's Thursday loss at home to Manchester United leaves them rooted to the bottom of the table and with just one point having now lost four straight games. Three of the defeats have been by one goal but they were still defeats and in truth, they don't look like winning games right now.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Brighton (-113) 1 unit
Only three teams should have won all their matches this season based on expected goals (xG); Manchester City, Arsenal and Brighton. Meanwhile, Leicester are in trouble with no new signings and a weak-looking squad, they seem too reliant on a couple of players and sit bottom of the table for a reason.
Player to watch: Leandro Trossard
Despite only scoring six goals so far, Belgian international Leandro Trossard has impressed. He leads Brighton with 19 shot-creating actions and 12 shots with one goal and one assist. He was Brighton's joint top-scorer with eight last season and generally carries Brighton's biggest creative threat.
Arsenal (+179) at Manchester United (+159) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 1 Arsenal
Manchester United's turnaround in form continued with a second consecutive 1-0 away win on Thursday. This time at bottom of the table Leicester City following their win at Southampton last weekend. They've brought in new recruits and appear to have turned the corner and got their season on the right track.
Arsenal's Wednesday night win against Aston Villa made it five wins from five games. They have picked up some key injuries in the past ten days and captain Martin Odegaard limped off in midweek as their squad is being stretched early on.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Manchester United (-115) 0.5 units
This is a fixture that generally produces controversy so I'm a bit reluctant to go heavy considering how influential a bad officiating decision can be. I see Arsenal's 100% record ending in what will be their toughest challenge so far but I'll hedge in case it ends in a draw so we can at least cover the bet.
Player to watch: Jadon Sancho
I've been banging the Sancho drum since preseason and two goals in three games have started to repay that faith. He's shown great composure in front of goal and despite Arsenal being yet to concede an away goal this season, Sancho will want to shine on the national TV stage.
Parlays
Moneyline: Liverpool, Manchester City and Brighton (+267) 1 unit
Draw no bet: Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Brentford (+400) 0.5 units
Both teams to score: Brentford/Leeds United, Chelsea/West Ham United and Brighton/Leicester City (+350) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
