Josh Hader Traded to Padres - Fantasy Baseball Impact

August 2, 2022

We look at the potential fantasy baseball impact of the trade that sent former Brewers closer Josh Hader to the Padres ahead of the 2022 MLB trade deadline.

The trade season burst into life on Monday and one of the biggest moves was unsurprisingly made by the Padres, acquiring Josh Hader from the Brewers in exchange for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, Robert Gasser, and Esteury Ruiz.

Obviously, the big piece in the trade was Josh Hader, the number one relief pitcher in fantasy drafts and the league leader in saves coming into this week.

But what is the fallout of the trade and how will it impact your fantasy teams?

July struggles

As mentioned, Hader leads the majors in saves with 29, despite July being the worst month of his career. Interestingly, last year was a similar story with six of the total eight runs Hader allowed in 2021 coming in July. I don't think there's much to be read into that unless it's a trend that continues throughout his career.

Coming into this season, Hader had a career 2.26 ERA (282.1 IP) between 2017-2021 and his 44.4% K% is the highest of all 311 pitchers with at least 200.0 IP in that timeframe. His 2.26 ERA is the second-lowest of that group.

The trade for Hader was necessitated by Rogers' own struggles in July, putting up a 9.31 ERA (9.2 IP) which ultimately saw Padres manager Bob Melvin take Rogers out of the closer role. Despite having the second most saves this year, Rogers' seven blown saves is a league-high and he gave up earned runs in eight of his 11 outings over the last five weeks.

Better with the Padres or Brewers?

There is no doubting Hader's ability and he should fit in as the Padres closer immediately. Normally, if a pitcher leads the league in saves, going anywhere else will be a downgrade. But if you consider Rogers ranks second in saves (28) while with the Padres, there should be no concerns there.

The Padres 52 save opportunities this season actually ranks as the third most, while the Brewers 50 ranks fourth. So there really shouldn't be any drop-off in Hader's saves.

Given Hader's strikeout rate (41.8% ranking in the 99th percentile), it matters less on the defense behind him than most other pitchers. Moving to the Padres should still help as they rank first in Outs Above Average (OAA) with 28, while the Brewers rank 21st with -9 OAA.

The Padres also offer a much more friendly ballpark for pitchers. Below is a table showing where each ballpark ranks in terms of pitcher friendliness (according to Statcast).

Hader has now upgraded to a better ballpark to pitch in and a better defense supporting him so it's fair to say the move should certainly benefit his fantasy value. Especially as he looks set to be the main closer, like Rogers was before his struggles and eventual trade.

Who is the Brewers Closer?

Where does that leave the Brewers and their closer role? The immediate expectation among the fantasy community was that Devin Williams will be the closer in Milwaukee. That could well be true but it might take us a few days to know for sure.

There's certainly a case for Williams to move into the role, given his numbers this year and throughout his young career. In 2022, Williams has a 1.59 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 41.8% K%. If you don't know how he fares among his peers, his Statcast profile should give you an idea.

If he can cut the walks down a bit, there's every chance that Williams will end up being the best reliever in baseball, something that you can make a strong argument for already. His changeup (known as "the airbender") has the highest spin rate among all changeups in the league (2,742 RPM) and has a 49.5% Whiff%. It's easy to see why.....

The Brewers may want to deploy Williams in the higher leverage roles, given his ridiculous strikeout numbers which could open the door for Rogers to get save opportunities himself. If the Brewers believe Rogers' recent struggles are fixable, that may prove to be their best option.

Prior to July, Rogers had a 2.84 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 29.8% K% in 32 appearances (31.2 IP) so had shown why the Padres traded for him this offseason. Rogers had a 2.95 ERA (253.1 IP) in the five years prior to this season so has a history or success to back him up as well.

If I were to guess, I'd say they both get save opportunities for the remainder of the season but it'll be around a 75/25 split in Williams' favor. Williams hasn't recorded more than three outs in a game since 2019, so I don't see the Brewers using him to get a big out or two in the eighth and then letting him pitch the ninth.

That's where I believe Rogers will be able to add to his own saves tally with the Brewers, but that's entirely dependent on if he can get back to his former self and put his recent struggles behind him. For now, I wouldn't be looking at dropping Rogers but Williams should be added in all leagues and could be the best fantasy reliever over the last two months of the season if he does take on the full-time closer role.

Lamet, Gasser and Ruiz

Lamet is a restoration project for the Brewers. Injuries have plagued Lamet since his 2017 debut and he's transferred to a bullpen role from being a starter as a result. He's only managed 12.1 IP this season for the Padres but has a 9.49 ERA and a 14.5% BB%. He will likely fill in as a middle reliever with the Brewers for now.

Gasser is a left-handed starting pitcher who MLB Pipeline ranked as the Padres' seventh-best prospect. The 23-year-old has a 4.18 ERA in 18 starts (90.1 IP) at High-A this year but does have a 30.5% K% and "could develop into an effective back-of-the-rotation starter."

Outfielder Ruiz made his MLB debut for the Padres this year, but only had 22 plate appearances and is expected to report to the Brewers Triple-A team. His main asset is elite speed, with 158 steals in the minors before this season, then tallying 60 stolen bases in 77 games across Double-A and Triple-A this year.

Ruiz is the only one of the trio who could offer fantasy value this season as a late-season steals provider if he gets called up to the Brewers. However, he only went 1-for-3 in stolen base attempts with the Padres, reminding us that stolen bases in the minor leagues don't equate to immediate success on the bases at the major league level.

In dynasty leagues, Gasser and Ruiz are still worthy of rostering but outside of Ruiz's speed right now, neither of them are big-time prospects that could be significant fantasy contributors in the long term.

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