Early-Season Small Sample Sizes And Slow Starters: Fantasy Baseball Insider Report

April 26, 2022

Scott Engel delivers his analysis on exclusive fantasy baseball insider insights from a former MLB executive.

Welcome back to our annual Fantasy Baseball Insider series on RotoBaller.com, where we take you inside Major League Baseball clubhouses, press boxes, and front offices for exclusive insights that provide a completely unique edge on the competition. We give you an all-access pass to information and takes that simply won’t be found anywhere else, along with comprehensive Fantasy breakdowns.

On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, coaches, scouts, and media members provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott Engel supplies his fantasy baseball analysis on their commentaries. These reports contain perspectives that you will not find anywhere else, from the truest experts on the game: The Fantasy Baseball Insider series won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s award for best Fantasy Baseball Series. Scott was also a finalist for the 2021 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year Award, as the nomination recognized his work on the Insider Series.

In this edition, we talk to a former Major League Baseball executive who is now a broadcaster. He has also been playing fantasy baseball for many years. This source shares his views on players who have started slowly and looks at some other early-season results. He lends advice on players who deserve patience from fantasy leaguers, adds in some lesser-heralded waiver adds, and provides his thoughts on an early-season sensation. This source has seen all of these players up close recently and delivers in-depth scouting reports tailored for fantasy players. His comments are in italics.

Insider Report: Executive Analysis in April

Andy Ashby

“He’s a sleeper starting pitcher on that staff. I think the main thing with him is he’s got a really good sinker and a good changeup. He was playing catch with Josh Hader this spring, and Hader was teaching him the grip on what was kind of a back door slider. He has really good ability and a pedigree and then you think about him possibly adding another pitch, that makes him a really interesting guy. He’s a little bit below the radar. They’re going to be careful with his innings but I would keep a close eye on him for sure.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Ashby has worked as a swingman for the Brewers so far, and has not gotten into a rhythm as Milwaukee has utilized a six-man rotation. Still, the ERA is at just 3.18 and the xFIP is 3.75. He does have a 24.1 K%, but the 14.8 BB% has been a little bit troubling. Ashby has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two appearances, but it’s early and he still has a lot of promise. Opponents are hitting .389 against his slider, but the XBA is .288 vs. the pitch. The changeup numbers are .333/.278. Ashby may be uncomfortable sliding back and forth between starting and the bullpen right now and you should be patient with him.

Willy Adames

“You saw him last season, he really had a quality year went he went over to Milwaukee. He fits so well there with the team. His OPS was almost .900 as a Brewer (the actual number was .886). He’s a guy they’re expecting big things out of, offensively in particular, especially in that park. To me, he is easily a 25-homer guy, with a .850 to .875 OPS.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Adames was off to a slow start, hitting .190 with one home run and four RBIs entering play on Monday, when he hit his second homer of the year. He did have nine runs scored heading into Monday's game. Adames’ 13.6 BB% is the highest of his career so far, and his 28.7 K% is right in line with his career norms. A .263 BABIP has not helped matters, and Adames’ xBA is .275. He is barreling up the ball less than he did last season (7.7 to 11.4), but the Hard Hit% of 38.5 is also in line with his career norms. Be patient with Adames and you should still end up with numbers comparable to last season. Our source here, as noted by the OPS predictions, believes Adames can even outperform what he delivered in 2021.

Willy Adames answers right back with a MOONSHOT to tie the game‼️pic.twitter.com/XnADk2xiDJ

(via @Brewers)

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 26, 2022

Seiya Suzuki

‘Suzuki is a real wild card there in Chicago. He has been pretty darn impressive. I think he gets close to 30 homers in that park and in that division. He’s got a pretty good idea of the strike zone and that is the thing that impresses me about him.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Our source originally believed Suzuki could get off to a slow start when we spoke to him in the spring, but he has blazed out of the gate with a .354 average, four home runs, 13 RBIs, and 12 runs scored. Suzuki has been buoyed by a ridiculous .448 BABIP, and the xBA is actually .240. He is also not going to continue to fashion a 21.2 Barrel%. Tougher times are ahead as the league adjusts to Suzuki, but he should still settle in to ultimately hit around .280 with close to the 30 home runs predicted here. In a preseason Insider Report, a current player told us how we should target N.L. Central hitters because of the pitching they will face for much of the year.

Jon Gray

“He doesn’t get a lot of love. I think he’s going to pitch well in Texas. I can see him pitching better than his projections indicate. The obvious is not being in Coors Field, and that matters a lot for him. He learned how to pitch in a tough park. He was not bad there, even if the overall numbers don’t look impressive. He learned how to make every pitch really matter in that park. Now if you have that same mentality in what is a pitcher’s park, that usually carries over well. In Coors Field, every pitch is important and you cannot take a pitch off. It’s almost like a postseason mindset. It’s max effort on every pitch."

"People don’t realize that when you have to do that every time, it wears on you over the course of a season. You’re going to be inconsistent from start to start and you don’t bounce back so well. You would get soreness in the arm that other pitchers don’t have. People don’t understand the physical grind of pitching there on a nightly basis. Now that he’s not there, I think you’re going to see better outings.”

Jon Gray's Nasty Breaking Balls. 🐺 pic.twitter.com/NkoW1wTGcn

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 3, 2022

Engel’s Insider Angles: Gray was not impressive in his first two starts and then landed on the IL because of knee inflammation.  He had also been on the IL previously because of a blister issue. There should be better times ahead for the veteran starter with his new team. He has not made a home start with Texas yet and he allowed seven runs in two starts covering nine innings to open the season. Gray has a 7.00 ERA so far, but his xFIP is just 3.79. The 41.7 Strand Rate is another strong indication of corrections ahead. Gray should prove to be very serviceable once he returns to action in good health, which is expected to be soon. According to published reports, he was expected to possibly miss just one start.

Taylor Hearn

“Hearn has moved from the pen to the rotation, so he’s going to be limited on his innings.  He’s got plus stuff. His fastball as a reliever was at 96-97 mph. It’s going to tail back a little bit, but he's really aggressive. Those guys who pitch in the pen, they tend to throw strikes and be a little bit more aggressive. He has a chance to be a good strikeout guy at some point. Give him a little bit of time to get his feet wet in that role. He might be a keeper for next year. They really like him in Texas.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Much like his new teammate Gray, Hearn has dealt with some bad luck. He has a 7.59 ERA, but the xFIP is just at 3.68. The .471 BABIP also will surely correct itself. The strikeouts have been there, with 14 in 10.2 innings pitched, but he does have six walks. The free passes were less of an issue in the minors, and Hearn is a good waiver add right now for some possible upside later on. Hearn is rostered in just 11% of CBSSports.com leagues.

Joe Barlow

“He’s a really interesting guy. He has plus stuff. He can be a sneaky source of saves. He could be a 25-save type of guy. I like his mentality and his stuff.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Barlow does not have a save yet and Matt Bush has one, but that came in a situation where Barlow was unavailable. He has seven strikeouts in 4.1 innings pitched so far and should still end up in the range of 20 saves. Barlow is using his slider more than he did last season (58.6 to 40.7 percent) and we will see if that alteration in his pitch selection can benefit him well. Chris Woodward confirmed to The Athletic that Barlow is still his main fireman. If you drafted Barlow among the final closers available, you can still be confident in a decent amount of saves.

Lou Trivino

“He’s already done it, and they have put him in high leverage situations. Oakland is going to struggle for wins, but he had 22 saves last year. I don’t know who they’re going to go to if it’s not him. Overall, his stuff isn’t anything spectacular, but he has the right mentality to handle that role. When I was talking to him, he said ‘I’m not putting any credence on the ninth inning over the eighth. I learned that last year. I know I’m going to make mistakes along the way, and I’m not going to put too much extra pressure on myself and that worked for me last year.’ I thought it was the right mentality.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Our source here believes that Trivino can be a good third closer type, even though many fantasy players rushed to add Dany Jimenez when Trivino went on the COVID-19 IL. Jimenez has three saves, and many fantasy players saw him as one of the first closers who would lose his job this season. However, Trivino did have two saves before he was put out of action and should get the opportunity to keep his job when he returns. Jimenez could eventually get the job back if Trivino is traded, so we may have not seen the last of Jimenez as a closer for Oakland.

Pavin Smith

“The sneaky guy for me from Arizona is Pavin Smith. I would keep a close eye on him. I think he has a little more power than what I have seen projected. He’s a guy that puts the ball in play. I like guys who don’t strike out and have a pretty good idea of the strike zone. I like his approach and bat-to-ball contact skills. I think he’s an interesting guy because he gives you versatility at first base and in the outfield.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: I have been hearing about Smith from insider sources for the past two years. In the minor leagues, he hit for average with adequate pop. If he exceeds expectations, Smith could hit above .275 with close to 15 home runs. I have seen him on the free agent list in some deeper leagues and he could provide respectable production if injuries strike and you need corner infield or outfield help. Smith is strictly an add for larger leagues, but he could be a necessary plugger when the situation calls for one.

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