RADIO
Hello everyone and Happy Easter! We take a jaunt over to Bristol, Tennessee for the Food City Dirt Race this week and the ninth 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
Please note the start time of this race (just after 7pm ET). Some of the race will be run while there is some daylight and the rest at night. Keep that in mind.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Martin Truex Jr. Under 46.5 Points. This is high-risk only because of the name of the driver. If this was anyone else, one could write this off as a free square. Honestly, players might be able to here. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been slow all week and it has only become worse. This was illustrated on Saturday in his qualifying run where Truex Jr. nearly caused an accident by being too slow around the turns. It looked like the No. 19 was running in quicksand. Unless there is some magic adjustment to be made, there is potential for place differential but that's not enough to rack up more than 46.5 points. Take the under!
Cole Custer Under 19.5 Points. The reason is that second starting position. That brings about danger if Cole Custer cannot stay in the top half on Sunday. The hope is that he can given this is only a 250-lap race. Is Custer's car fast enough to lead a few laps? That is dicey. Keep in mind, Tyler Reddick is right behind him. If he can stay with Reddick early, that will help track position though. The final 50 lap portion of the race could be anyone's guess and the expecting changing on track conditions does make this more and more problematic. Custer likely drops back enough that place differential knocks him under the prop. Take the under.
Justin Haley Over 22.5 Points. This is one of the more fun numbers to look at on Sunday. Justin Haley has been fast and there is no reason to believe he will slow down much on Sunday. Can he keep that Kaulig Racing car on the track? Now, that is going to be said for a lot of the racers up closer to the front this week. Haley's Chevy may be on of the few other than say one of the Hendrick cars that can keep the momentum err speed intervals rolling. The prop total is just enticing enough to take a shot at the over when all is said and done Sunday night.
Ross Chastain Over 45.5 Points. The #1 driver benefits majorly due to place differential this week. His ability to net top-ten results is well documented this season and punctuated by the win in Austin. He can race on any track and has shown the controlled aggression (somewhat controlled) to race at Bristol. The Trackhouse Racing driver starts 33rd at Bristol so basically anything around the top ten hits the prop. Chastain could also benefit as the conditions transition from day to night. His best run could be during that critical final stage. Take the over here.
Tyler Reddick Over 53.5 Points. This could prove to be one we go too far on. However, Reddick has been lightning fast since they got to Bristol. Look at how often he pulled away with ease during the 15 laps during that first qualifying heat. Reddick and his Chevy did it not once but twice. He floored it a second time and never looked back. When a racer gains tenths of a second per lap and is able to almost coast at times is scary. This can be scary good or bad. However, he can net some fastest laps and rack up led laps early. That might be enough to overcome that lofty point total. Take the over with the No. 8.
Some other drivers to look at:
Kurt Busch (Over 27.5 points) -- The elder Busch starts 13th and should not drop too much as his Toyota seemed to avoid the problems that have befallen others like Denny Hamlin and particularly Martin Truex Jr. If the elder Busch lurks around the top-ten then he connects on the over. It's worth a shot.
Willam Byron (Over 45.5 points) -- Expect another solid week for Byron. After all, he was Mr. Consistent last year. Even starting 19th on Sunday just gives him more ceiling to add to his potential point total. The Hendricks have looked mostly very good all week and do not lose a ton of speed on the dirt. If the pit crew does not make any mistakes, Byron could sail into a top ten at Bristol like last year (sixth place).
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