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Bold predictions for the 2022 fantasy baseball season by Kev a.k.a. RotoSurgeon. These are his most confident calls on players to trust or bust in fantasy.
The best time of year is when I am allowed a platform to over-explain my seemingly irrational fantasy opinions. Bold predictions are a fun exercise for any and all analysts to let their gut do the talking beyond a tweet that may just come off as a hot take.
For what it is worth, these are more expectations than anything. The guise of "bold predictions" allows me to come off as less crazy.
If you have any questions or concerns regarding this piece and the content within it, please direct all anger/frustration/confusion to @RotoSurgeon.
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Julio Rodriguez Outperforms Bobby Witt Jr. in All Formats
Julio Rodriguez is a better prospect than Bobby Witt Jr., at least for fantasy. If you look at their minor league numbers in AA (Rodriguez's highest level), Witt is outperformed while playing at a year older than JRod!
Rodriguez (20): 14.1% BB, 18% K, .362 AVG, .461 OBP, .546 SLG, .448 wOBA, 173 wRC+
Witt Jr. (21): 9% BB, 24% K, .295 AVG, .369 OBP, .570 SLG, .404 wOBA, 145 wRC+
*In fairness, Rodriguez is lifted by a .431 BABIP but he has sustained a heightened level there throughout the minors*
Rodriguez gets the benefit of playing in a much improved Seattle lineup as well that was 18th in team wRC+ last season and added Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Adam Frazier over the offseason while also having the benefit of another former top prospect, Jarred Kelenic, entering year two.
Witt Jr.'s Royals were 25th in wRC+ and made no offseason additions to the offense aside from Witt's promotion. He definitely helps but a rookie can only do so much to elevate a low-level offense. The lack of protection around him could hinder his overall fantasy stat-line while Rodriguez is slightly boosted by his surroundings.
Throughout this fantasy baseball offseason, Witt Jr. had been drafted roughly 150~ picks ahead of Rodriguez but now that both are up for Opening Day, that could prove to be a mistake.
Kevin Gausman AND Jose Berrios Finish As Top-10 SPs
This may seem far-fetched given that they're on the same team and pitching in the daunting AL (B)East but both certainly have the chops to make it. Gausman and Berrios are no strangers to workhorse innings. Each is a candidate to be of the select few that crack 200 IP, yet it may not even be necessary. Toronto's top starters both landed in the top-eight of 2021's innings pitched leaders and each has at least three seasons with 175+ IP in their resume.
There will be a lot of pitcher fatigue this year from starters who aren't used to massive workloads, particularly due to coming off the shortened 2020. Those who recently ramped up to 150+ IP in 2021 (Freddy Peralta, Logan Webb, Julio Urias, Corbin Burnes, etc) will have much more difficulty this season in the long-haul sustaining velocity, control, and/or health.
Nevertheless, finishing with a ton of innings is just the starting point. Those innings must be quality after all. For the sake of wins, playing on the Blue Jays should help with that as Toronto finished ninth in the MLB despite missing the playoffs while accumulating the fourth-most SP wins.
*Fantasy SP Wins are random but teams with good records are more likely to have more wins*
Jose Berrios turned in the best stretch of his career after his trade from Minnesota to Toronto. In 12 starts, he posted career-highs in strikeout and walk rate while posting the lowest ERA of his career in the full season. Berrios has been criticized for never taking that next step in his development from very good starter to great but this may have begun. His 20.4% K-BB in 2021 was also the highest of his six-year career and that includes his 19.2% in Minnesota that season to 22.3% in Toronto. More improvements may come with a full offseason in Toronto.
Kevin Gausman posted a top-10 fantasy season just last year (eighth via RazzBall's player rater) but there are questions as to whether he could handle the transition back to the AL East where he struggled with Baltimore. While the added competition is legitimate, Gausman no longer will have a bandbox as a home park and has completely changed his approach as a pitcher with 10% fewer four-seam fastballs and twice as many splitters since his Orioles days. The Giants worked wonders on Gausman and Toronto should continue his development, especially with resident pitching coach/guru Pete Walker still in town.
Art Warren Saves 25+ Games
Art Warren is far from a household name, but in all honesty, so are most breakout relievers. Warren is a 29-year-old converted starter-turned-reliever who posted an incredible 1.29 ERA last season in 21 IP. Typically, ERA can be deceiving but not in Warren's case. His 41.5% K and 9.8% BB displayed peripherals that supported his stellar surface numbers in the form of a 1.71 xERA, 1.84 FIP, 2.65 xFIP, and 2.31 SIERA.
Warren's limited MLB track record is not ideal but it is not uncommon for relievers to have breakouts in their late 20s. Liam Hendriks, Ryan Pressly, Giovanny Gallegos, Jordan Romano, Blake Treinen, and Paul Sewald all come to mind when considering skilled relievers who broke out after age 26. Some, like Warren, were initially starters who failed and re-built themselves as late-inning aficionados.
The Reds had four pitchers with at least seven saves last season and none with double-digits. While many use this as a case against rostering one of their 2022 options, we must remember just how bad those relievers were.
Warren may not have the closer role to start the season, but considering that the next best option, Lucas Sims, is on IL and still dealing with an injury from last season, he cannot be seen as much of a threat beyond a couple of opportunities. Luis Cessa would be the next biggest threat; however, he does not have the strikeout ability of Warren and could easily get hit around in Great American's bandbox.
Mitch Keller Finishes with an ERA Below 4.00
Mitch Keller is the poster boy for post-hype pitching prospects in 2022. He experienced a velocity dip on his four-seam fastball over the past two seasons from 95.4 in 2019 to 94.2 in 2020 and 94.1 in 2021. However, he is sitting around 97 mph throughout the spring and occasionally hitting 100!
2016: 20yo in A, 23.2% K-BB (124.1IP)
2017: 21yo in AA, 23.9% K-BB (34.2IP)
2018: 22yo in AAA, 14.8% K-BB (52.1IP)
2019: 23yo in MLB, 21.6% K-BB (48IP)
Keller did everything necessary at every level relative to age to continue believing in a delayed breakout despite a rough start to his career. If he's really putting it all together, this season could be the start of something special but expectations shouldn't get *too* high. A sub-4.00 ERA is reasonably bold given that he's at 6.02 for his career through 170 1/3rd IP. Pittsburgh's pitcher-friendly home park and weak offensive division should help push him under that threshold as well.
Wins may be hard to come by in Pittsburgh but Keller is built to pitch deep into games and provide plenty of strikeouts. At his cost in fantasy, it is a no-brainer flier for the first month.
Kyle Higashioka Plays 100+ Games, Performs as a Top-15 Catcher
Kyle Higashioka essentially took over as New York's starting C last season as Gary Sanchez's offensive AND defensive failures mounted. Sanchez's fall from grace did come with the silver lining of getting career minor-leaguer Kyle Higashioka significant playing time. Higashioka displayed great framing that caught the eye of ace Gerrit Cole and tied the two together. From late July on, Higgy, as he's been dubbed, took on the primary catching role for the Yankees.
Higashioka finished 2021 as MLB's 14th-best framer while Sanchez sat at fifth-worst among 59 eligible catchers, according to StatCast. StatCast also shows that Higashioka's poor offensive output was somewhat due to bad luck as he made good contact and the expected outcome of those batted balls should have been more fruitful.
While it is tough to find any beauty in a .181/.246/.389 slash-line, his xStats (expected stats) show a much more favorable potential outcome of a .231 AVG and .499 SLG! His differential was fifth-worst among all hitters with at least 50 balls in play. This is not a perfect science by any means but when you are extremely high or low on any list, there may be some truth to it. 
New York did recently trade for Jose Trevino from Texas but he is an even worse offensive catcher than Higashioka despite a better framing season in 2021. Expect Higashioka to continue holding the reins as the Yankees' primary catcher and do not be shocked when he is rostered in one-catcher leagues.
Dodgers Do Not Finish With NL's Best Offense
Many, including myself, would immediately assume that the Dodgers hold the crown of not just the NL's best offense, but baseball as a whole given the construction of their all-star squad. However, after looking at LA's roster, there are several glaring issues that may prevent them from finishing as the top dog. Firstly, the injury bug has spread throughout the Dodgers lineup before the 2022 season has even kicked off:
- Max Muncy is carrying over a torn UCL from the 2021 postseason
- Chris Taylor underwent elbow surgery this past November
- Mookie Betts did not surgically repair the hip injury that nagged him throughout 2021. He claims to be 100% but that is questionable at best
- Cody Bellinger's preseason struggles can only be seen as a red flag after an atrocious season
The Dodgers did not even finish as the best NL offense in 2021! Their rival San Francisco Giants did but are unlikely to repeat, thankfully.
Yes, the addition of Freddie Freeman is a massive buoy but it may be more of a necessity than luxury considering the bandaids on several wounds thus far. LA also deploys the strategy of staggering starters throughout the year via ghost IL stints and regular rest days, which should be more common with the addition of an NL DH. The Dodgers should be one of the league's better offenses, but it is unwise to believe this stellar lineup won't have several ugly days/weeks throughout a 162-game season. Focus is (and has been) the postseason and that is all but a lock to clinch.
Phillies Win East with NL's Best Offense
Give credit where it is due, the Phillies have loaded their starting lineup with the signings of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. These two bats are essentially equivalent in value and fit perfectly into a top-heavy lineup that can now push down their more average bats to ask less of them.
Despite possessing the league MVP Bryce Harper in 2021, Philadelphia finished 19th in team wRC+. It's not as if Harper was the only "name-brand" player either, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins, and former third-overall pick Alec Bohm were all present but did not do enough to elevate a certainly flawed team.
Now, Realmuto is reportedly at full strength after dealing with a wrist issue throughout 2021, Hoskins is another season removed from his October 2020 Tommy John, and Alec Bohm has far lower expectations, which could be beneficial for younger players. On top of this and the recent signings, 2019 first-round pick Bryson Stott has delivered in Spring Training and the Phillies no longer need to rely on Mickey Moniak to play regularly.
The elephant in the room with Philly will be their defense but given that the shift is still in play until 2023, this can be mitigated by defensive positioning. Also, Phillies starters like Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, and Zach Eflin have such good strikeout stuff that they aren't as worried about balls in play as other rotations. Their bullpen is questionable at best but Corey Knebel is fully healthy and had a stellar 2021 and there are several former closers like Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, and Jose Alvarado, who can figure out their roles as the season goes on. The best non-closer may just end up Seranthony Dominguez, who is looking like a massive bounce-back candidate after injuries took him down these past few seasons.
If you can bet on the Phillies to win the NL East, you should.
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