32 for 32: NFL Draft Predictions for the Saints

April 9, 2020

Brandon Murchison's 2020 NFL Draft predictions for the New Orleans Saints. His 32 for 32 series looks at fantasy football implications for redraft and dynasty.

Even with an injury taking down Drew Brees for a stretch during the season, the Saints offense did not miss a beat. Along with the record-breaking performance of Michael Thomas, there was plenty of fantasy value to grab from this team. Will the NFL Draft also welcome in talent to further this team's potential? Let's find out in our latest edition of the NFL Draft 32 for 32 series.

The focus of this series is to dive into each NFL team's needs to project their draft picks in this year's draft, which will go on as planned in late April. I will predict the first three selections and give fantasy football owners perspective on how this affects fantasy value. Whether it be a positional player or players on the defensive side of the ball, all selections made can help in some way when it comes to fantasy scoring.

As we have seen in recent memory, some rookies can enter this league and make an immediate impact. Based on the appropriate landing spot, this year's crop of prospects has the potential to create some very fantasy-friendly situations. When you're done here, look back on our previous installments by checking the links at the bottom of this page.

2019 Review

It was a head-scratching finish to the 2019 season for the New Orleans Saints. Owning the top graded offense and a defense inside the top 10, the team should have been a shoo-in in the Super Bowl, if not the NFC title game. But alas, a stunning defeat to the Minnesota Vikings sent this team home early.

Drew Brees, in an injury-shortened season, turned in a brilliant performance. In the 11 games played, Brees threw 27 TD, ran for one more while throwing only four INT. Sure, he finished as QB24 on the season but imagine where he would have placed with a full season under his belt. Extrapolating those numbers out over 16 games, Brees could have easily been a top-five option in fantasy and with the weapons around him, things should not change moving forward. The low ADOT (6.9) is cause for concern because it limits the big plays in this offense, but when you have a passing attack that believes in short, quick passes the ADOT will always be typically low.

It was an odd season for the Saints rushing attack, led by Alvin Kamara. With Mark Ingram gone to Baltimore, many were expecting to see Kamara back in the hunt as one of the top backs in all of fantasy. But what we got was a player struggled in the running game (797 yards and five TD) but made up for as usual as a pass-catcher (81 catches and a score). Combine those numbers, and you have a back that finished inside the top 10 (RB9). He battled injuries throughout the 2019 season (missed two games), which affected his big-play ability (one TD over 40+ yards). But with a healthy offseason, Kamara should once again return to prominence across all formats as a backend first-round pick.

Latavius Murray was a very useful handcuff to Kamara owners, and himself saw value as a Flex option during certain points in the season. The five TD (three from inside the red-zone) and 637 yards proved that he could be very useful if called upon. But it was the 34 receptions that were surprising, proving he could be a solid PPR option as well. Murray's fantasy value is tied to the health of Kamara, limiting him to being a player as a strong handcuff.

The record-setting performance of Michael Thomas (149 receptions) paid off big-time for fantasy owners that had the luxury of grabbing him in the second round of drafts. He was the only receiver over 300 FP and led the league in yardage by a wide margin. His 10 100-yard games paced the field also, with the next closest at six. Every major statistical category for receiving, Thomas either led or was in the running for. But if you want to nitpick, it is that his value is largely tied to being bombarded with targets (180). If the targets were to drop, Thomas only has one way to go and that is down. He will be the top WR off the board in fantasy drafts and rightfully so.

Outside of Thomas, Jared Cook was the only other viable option in fantasy football. The catches weren't there (43) but the nine touchdowns were what lifted his value. Obvious regression in scoring in expected, but Cook will be in the mix again as a lower-tier TE1. The other receivers (Ted Ginn and Tre'Quan Smith) were largely irrelevant for fantasy owners and is why the team went out and signed Emmanuel Sanders.

As for the draft, The Saints will look to solidify positions as they are still in win-now mode with Drew Brees under center. Even with the signing of Sanders, this team should look to add another playmaking receiver in what will be a very deep class. Finding more depth along the offensive line will be needed in case this team sustains an injury. Also, filling a spot at linebacker could prove useful for a team with a strong defense that likes to rotate its players.

New Orleans Saints - 2020 Outlook

TEAM GRADES
Offense: 85.9 (1st)
Defense: 80.6 (7th)
Overall: 93.7 (2nd)

TEAM NEEDS
OL, WR, LB

First Selection (1.24)

Justin Jefferson, WR LSU

The Saints stay in-state as the selection of the LSU product fills a need on this high-powered offense. Jefferson mainly plays from the slot and his contested catch focus and ball skills are among the best in this year's class. He generally quick off the snap and has a decent long speed, but his route tree will need to develop more at the next level.

What makes him good is his ability to adjust speeds as he is tracking a ball. This allows him to shield a defender away and use his quick hands to stab at the pass. Playing initially behind Thomas and Sanders, Jefferson's value in season-long leagues will be limited. But in dynasty formats, he should be a second-round pick that could eventually perform as a WR2 in this offense.

Second Selection (3.24)

John Simpson, OG Clemson

With their next pick being in the third round, the Saints look to address a need along the offensive line with Jonah Simpson. He is a very big and strong interior lineman. He has the prototypical size and frame to withstand the rigors of playing in the trenches. His power allows him to be able to turn a crease into a full-fledged running lane. His look and power will draw the team's attention, but Simpson is more than a one-trick pony.

He has multiple moves in his skillset, agility to get to the second level and is an asset in screen blocking. His lateral agility may hurt him in pass protection at first, but coaching should round out the edges in his progression. Simpson will be a solid pick for the Saints and could develop into a long-time starter.

Third Selection (4.24)

Michael Pinckney, LB Miami

Pinckney was a four-year starter in college and comes into the pros with some seasoning under his belt. He was remarkably consistent with production during his college career. He's very physical and plays with admirable instincts, but he is an average athlete. He doesn't play with enough control or balance from snap to snap.

Some believe he has yet to truly tap into his potential and if he can unlock that, then the Saints have a solid starter on their hands. But early on, Pinckney will likely be a backup on this defense and a contributor on special teams. Not a lot of value to be had in fantasy circles but a sound pick nonetheless.

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