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Hey, RotoBallers! I want to introduce myself formally, my name is Jon Irvin. Some of you may know me from the Discord channels and know I love breaking down DFS slates, especially in the MLB and NHL. I enjoy the deep dumpster diving so to speak, and look forward to helping find the low-owned, overlooked, and unwanted plays. I predominantly play on DraftKings, so some of my picks are more tailored to their point/price system but a good spot is a good spot regardless of platform. We now have enough data to focus on positive and negative trends by implementing my trend chart where I look at both L25 and L10 to help see which teams are trending in which direction.
Welcome back to the discount rack! Today's DFS content will be for the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, March 11th, 2024. Happy 311 day, we got a fun little 4-gamer tonight filled with both blindingly kush spots and ones that disregard Vegas implied totals. Let's dive into this "Beautiful Disaster" and find the key value to afford my top spend up in David Pastrnak.
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After reading this, jump into the RotoBaller Discord NHL channel and chat with all the other great minds about today's slate. Don’t forget to check out our valuable NHL tools, including the new NHL DFS Heat Map.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/11/24
As stated earlier, I have begun to implement my personal trend chart. Below, you'll see stats that reflect the average of L25 and L10. This happens to weigh L10 heavier, which tightens our sample and shows both positive and negative trends.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Ilya Sorokin - DK $7.6K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Hopefully, we aren't going to the well one too many times with Ilya. I'm trying to "Come Original" but Sorokin has been solid in recent form, coming into tonight winning his last five games. I expect the shot volume to be a little higher than it has been due to the Islanders playing last night and also the King's tendency to toss pucks at the net at a higher clip.
Others to consider: Charlie Lindgren (DK $7.4K || FD $7.5K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Pavel Zacha - DK $4.4K || FD $5.5K
Getting to be the "Transistor" for a line that includes David Pastrnak, Zacha has been on an absolute tear these past 4 games. With STL coming into Boston tonight, things should follow suit, making Zacha a steal and an easy value play.
Opponent - St. Louis Blues
Others to consider: Erik Haula (DK $4.2K || FD $5.2K )
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Ondrej Palat - DK $3.7K || FD $4.4K
Opponent -New York Rangers
The Devil's lines tend to be "All Mixed Up" from game to game, but the common piece is Palat at a reasonable price. His recent L10 away game metrics speak for themselves, with an xGF nearing 4, no matter who he skates with his production comes at a discount.
Others to consider: Kaapo Kakko (DK $2.7K || FD $3.6K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
K'Andre Miller - DK $3.5K || FD $4.5K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
With the recent loss of Jacob Trouba on the blue line, Miller should be relied on a bit heavier. An uptick of minutes shouldn't be out of the question. In terms of peripherals, K'Andre sits just inside the top 5 for tonight's slate, the blocks are there but the lack of point upside keeps him from getting a price increase. There's also a slight chance that Adam Fox misses tonight's game, making the NYR "Down" their top 2 defensemen which will only raise Millers' minutes and potential.
Others to consider: Simon Nemec (DK $3.8K || FD $4.3K)
Below I've included a chart of defensemen over the past month concentrating more on peripheral floors rather than relying on goals/assists.
JIrv’s Discount Stacks and Sample Lineups
Top Value Stack
NYR3 (Cuylle/Wennberg/Kakko)
NJD3 (Tierney/Lazar/Mercer)
Top Pay Up Stack
BOS2 (Heinen/Zacha/Pastrnak)
NJD2 (Hughes/Haula/Bratt)
Don't be afraid to go off the beaten path and distinguish yourself from the masses, and as always, good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
