X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Five Players Set to Break Out at Second Base

Mike Kurland identifies second basemen who could break out in 2021 for fantasy baseball. These 2B could be undervalued sleepers in fantasy drafts.

When defining a breakout, I look at it as players that can take a step forward to a level they never reached before. This leaves most of the top targets at the position unavailable for this discussion.

Today, we bring you five players at the second base position that can take that next step and break out.

The average draft position data is NFBC ADP since December 1, 2020.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Nick Solak, Texas Rangers

ADP: 162

Nick Solak is entering his age-26 season and comes into 2021 with the inside track to play second base every day. In 2020, Solak showed us an improved strikeout rate of 18%. This is a 3.5 point improvement from 2019 and in line with his minor league production. He also posted seven stolen bases but just two home runs. The stolen bases were definitely welcomed by fantasy managers as it was unexpected. Although, having stolen 21 bases as recently as 2018 in Double-A, we know the skill set is there. Also, 2020 may have indicated the Rangers are willing to be a team who gives their players the green light after being tied for fourth in the league with 49 stolen bases as a team.

Solak also flashed power in the minors with double-digit home runs at three different stops. So we know the power potential is there. We have come to know that max exit velocity is an indicator of power potential and he posted a max exit velocity of 111.7 MPH. This is either tied with or better than names like Brandon Lowe, Mike Moustakas, Francisco Lindor, and Luke Voit among others. A reminder that the double-digit home run totals we saw in the minors were not a fluke. Solak did increase his launch angle and in turn, the GB% dipped (but was still high) to 48.5% and the fly balls increased 11.3 points in the process up to 25.1%. So it shows he is making progress towards putting the ball in the air more, which should lead to some more power production.

Lastly, the batting average floor feels safe given the contact profile. Solak has never hit under .266 at any stop in his career. In 2020, we saw gains in the contact rate (up 2.4 points to 82.1%) with an elite zone contact rate of 91.7%. That is up there with the best of them. This contact skill allows for there to be a solid floor of production at the very least. Ultimately, the track record and skill set are in place for Solak to take a step forward in 2021.

 

Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Indians

ADP: 196.24

Expect this to increase a ton now that he has been traded to the Indians. This not only opens up playing time, but allows him to have the opportunity to possibly lead off. He has shown off the speed in the minors and his short stint in the MLB as well. Gimenez has stolen double-digit totals in every stop since A-Ball in 2017. The hit tool followed him as well as he minimizes strikeouts and hits for a solid batting average. He also produces good OBP. The all-around profile is very safe and provides what should be a high floor.

In the small sample of 2020, he had above average O-Contact% (63.1%), Z-Contact% (86.5%) which led to an above-average overall contact% (76.9%). This was his first taste of the majors so with time it could continue to grow. Although speed is his main attribute, the power isn’t an absolute zero. He has grown into some pop of late having posted nine home runs in Triple-A and then three over the span of the shortened season. That leads me to believe 10-to-12 HR over a full season is realistic. Ultimately, with this trade and improved playing time situation and paired with possibly leading off, he could be a sneaky 4-to-5 category producer. 

 

Mauricio Dubon, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 283.65

We may have been a year early on Mauricio Dubon. The 26-year-old came into 2020 as more of a platoon bat and did not play every day. However, he worked his way into everyday at-bats by the end of the season. In the final month of the season, he hit three of his four home runs while batting .273. He stole two bases on the year as well. This gives us a chance for a little power and speed combination. He has multiple seasons in the minors with double-digit stolen base outcomes. Most recently, he stole 13 bases in 2019 when combining the three stops he made.

The power showed up as well in 2019, however, that was the year of the juiced ball so it is something to consider as to part of the reasoning. He posted 24 home runs in 2019 as a whole and although it was the juiced ball season, they all weren't from the ball so even if you regress the total down, 12-to-15 over a full season is a very realistic outcome. Pair that with the double-digit stolen base potential and solid batting average and we have ourselves a diamond in the rough (so to speak).

In 2020, he posted a strikeout rate of 20.3%. This was the highest strikeout rate since Rookie-Ball in 2013 to give you an idea of how solid the plate approach is. We also saw gains in walk rate. It nearly doubled from 2019 coming in at 8.5% in 2020. Speaking of the plate approach, the batting average has only dipped below .272 once and, again, that was his 2013 Rookie-Ball season. Something to be aware of is Dubon crushes left-handed pitching and is mediocre verse right-handed pitching. However, given a chance, he could improve against them. If he does not, he still hits them well enough (career .259 and .311 OBP so far) to get a strict platoon situation. Also, it's not like the Giants have anything to lose giving the young kid a chance to develop.

Last little tidbit, Dubon changed his stance and mechanics from 2019 to 2020.

If given the chance to work on his game, he could give us some all-around production. Dubon will likely hit at the bottom of the lineup so that will limit his runs and RBI but the stolen bases and batting should still come with the few home runs. He isn't flashy but he should be a solid contributor.

 

Ty France, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 289.53

Ty France was acquired last season by the Mariners and now enters 2021 as the favorite to be their everyday DH. France is expected to play the field as well though and could pick up eligibility even at third base. In 2020 he flashed some of his upside by hitting four home runs while batting .305. Not a large sample, but we saw the strikeout rate slightly reduce but the more notable change from 2019 to 2020 was the 2.6 point increase in the walk rate. This shows there was some growth at the plate as he entered his second season as a major leaguer after getting just 69 games in 2019. 

There is even reason for more optimism in the plate discipline front as France has never struck out over 19% of the time in the minors at any level. So we see two small samples of a strikeout rate of over 23% and there’s a chance once he gets accustomed to the MLB that he improves on that rate.

We have seen the power play up in the minors and it really began to take off in 2018 when he hit 17 home runs in Double-A. France continued the power production into the 2019 season, where he hit a combined 34 between Triple-A and the Majors. He makes a good amount of contact as a whole and we saw France increase his barrel rate from 2019 to 2020 as well. It increased by 2.8 points to 8.7%. The Sweet Spot% also increased 12.6 points to 44.2%. This shows us the quality of contact has improved.

Unfortunately, the hard hit rate (29.8%) and average exit velocity (85.7 MPH) both declined in 2020.  However, given the growth in quality of contact, an increase in line drives and pull rate, he can manufacture power with that approach. France improved his ground ball rate and got it down 4.9 points to 38.5% and the fly ball rate also fell while the line drive rate increased dramatically. It was up to 34.6% from just 22.1% the year prior. A line drive heavy approach should play well to batting average and BABIP. Although a repeat of a .390 BABIP will not happen, if these changes hold it should drop as low as you may think it will. 

There is ultimately a lot to like here between the profile and potential. This is a combination of the two and given his draft day cost, it is worth taking a shot.

 

Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 346.67

When you think of Luis Arraez, you should think of David Fletcher. Among players with 100 PA last year, there were five players inside the top 10 in O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, Contact% and SwStr%. Now, all these metrics correlate and the same names SHOULD be on these lists. But the point of why it made sense to look into it was to form this idea of similar profiles and of the five names, two were Luis Arraez and David Fletcher. Both offer similar profiles but one can be drafted 130 picks later. In part, it is the consistency and multi-positional flexibility Fletcher offers, but with such similar skill sets, you are better off attack flexibility elsewhere and take the discount here.

Reasons to buy into Arraez:

  •  Should bat atop the lineup (hit top two in final two games of regular season and the two playoff games)
  • Great hit tool and plate discipline
  • On a good offense so he will get good amount of runs
  • He will hit for a high average over a large number of at-bats

You need to build for taking on this type of player but runs and batting average tend to be hard to come by late and those are the two categories of strength he should bring to your roster.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF