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"Thunder" Dan Palyo breaks down the conference finals of the NBA playoffs in both the Eastern and Western conference with his sports betting picks and advice for the NBA postseason.
The NBA Playoffs have been incredibly entertaining so far. We have some major surprises with the Nuggets being eliminated last night by Minnesota and some other expected outcomes (like Boston cruising through the first two rounds).
We are down to the final four teams with Boston being the only top-seeded team remaining. Dallas was the #5 seed out West, Minnesota was the #3 seed, while the upstart Pacers were the #6 seed in the East.
None of those seedings matter now, it all comes down to one more seven-game series to advance to the NBA Finals. The Eastern Conference matchup is set to start tomorrow while the Western Conference Finals will begin on Wednesday. We get a game every night for the next week or more which should be great for viewing (and betting) purposes. Today I will preview both series and my official predictions and best bets.
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Eastern Conference: Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers
Season Series: Celtics 3-2
Series Odds: Celtics (-1000), Pacers (+700)
The Eastern Conference was supposed to be a gauntlet this year. The Celtics were supposed to have to contend with the Bucks and their super duo of Giannis and Lillard. Boston was supposed to have to get past reigning MVP Joel Embiid and a tough Philly squad. Instead, the Celtics drew the Heat in the first round who were without their best player (Jimmy Butler), and quickly disposed of them in five games.
Then Boston drew my beloved Cleveland Cavaliers in round two. I thought the Cavs could push them in that series, but Jarrett Allen never suited up after being injured in the Orlando series and Cleveland star Donovan Mitchell watched from the bench for the final two games as the Celtics cruised past the Cavs in five games.
Boston has been firing on all cylinders this postseason except for two fluky Game Two losses in each series where they couldn't make a shot and their opponents got hot behind the arc. The Celtics haven't even had their starting center, Kristaps Porzingis, who is set to return at some point in this series (possibly as early as Game Three).
Kristaps Porzingis putting in some intense work on the bike pic.twitter.com/0E4ugLDrxG
— Taylor Snow (@taylorcsnow) May 19, 2024
I don't mean to discredit what the Pacers have done to get this point, and this is obviously a huge move forward for their franchise as they have completed their rebuild around Tyrese Haliburton. But the Knicks seemed to have their number up 2-0 in the last series before suffering injuries to a number of starters (Brunson, Hart, Anunoby) that allowed Indiana to get back into the series.
Boston is obviously a huge favorite here and for good reason. They were the best team in the East all season long and they have playoff experience in spades. The Celtics regulars have all been here before and Jrue Holiday has been here with Milwaukee. Porzingis is the only Celtic without that much postseason experience.
Boston is well-rested as they finished off the Cavs last Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Pacers needed all seven games to fight off a scrappy Knicks squad that was incredibly physical. It's the age-old debate of whether you'd rather have a fresh team or one playing at a high level on a roll. With how much of a grind the playoffs can be, I side with the team that is well-rested having the advantage early in the series.
If there is one area where the Pacers do have an advantage, it would be with their depth. While the Celtics only played three guys off their bench this postseason (Pritchard, Kornet, and Hauser), the Pacers often play nine guys with TJ McConnell and Ben Sheppard playing over 20 minutes quite often, Obi Toppin splitting minutes with Aaron Nesmith, and Isaiah Jackson even playing around ten minutes a night behind Myles Turner.
I watched every minute of the Cleveland-Boston series and I think Boston is going to be incredibly tough to beat this round. They are so well-rounded and every guy in their lineup can kill you with big shots. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum can both take over at any point, while Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are content to play suffocating defense until they're needed to step up and knock down big shots.
Al Horford can still play and Luke Kornet gave Boston some pretty solid minutes behind him. Once Porzingis returns, Big Al will bump back to the bench and resume his sixth-man role which he's perfectly suited for with his versatility. The one area that Boston can be attacked in on the interior, but I'm not sure Myles Turner is the kind of player to take advantage as he's content to settle for jump shots outside the paint quite often.
Peyton Pritchard is also a dog out there defensively, rebounding and making tough shots, and should match the intensity that TJ McConnell brings to the Pacers' second unit.
Boston seems to let down their guard at least once per series, so I will give the Pacers one game here, but I think the Celtics dominate otherwise. They have yet to play their best basketball this postseason while the Pacers may have just used up their best effort to get past the Knicks.
Betting Pick(s): Celtics -2.5 games (series spread, -155 DK)
Series Prediction: Celtics 4-1
Western Conference: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Season Series: Minnesota 3-1
Series Odds: Wolves (-170), Mavs (+145)
This is the series that should be much more competitive and I've already seen plenty of people attempt to make the case for both teams. Dallas is coming off a huge upset of the top-seeded OKC Thunder, however, a lot of NBA folks expected the Thunder to run into trouble eventually with their lack of experience and size. It was still a huge win for this team and franchise as the Mavs are playing for a chance to return to their first finals since Dirk Nowitzki led them to a championship in 2011.
But was Dallas's series victory more impressive than what the Timberwolves just did to the defending champion Nuggets? I'm not so sure it was. Minnesota overcame a 20-point deficit in the first half to come back and defeat the reigning MVP while holding Denver to just 90 points (and to just 37 points in the second half).
8 More #LockIn #5 pic.twitter.com/wCQDARFcI2
— Anthony Edwards (@theantedwards_) May 20, 2024
It was a gutsy Game Seven performance by Minnesota and the entire series was a testament to how tough and determined this Wolves team is. They're getting done on defense and by controlling the glass with their two 7-footers. Oh, and that Anthony Edwards kid is pretty darn good, too.
Minnesota handled Dallas three times out of four this season, but it was pointed out to me by some Dallas fans that the Mavericks didn't have Daniel Gafford or P.J. Washington for some of those games. That's a fair point, especially with how crucial Washington was to Dallas's success in the OKC series.
The Mavericks are a tough offense to stop with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic forming a dynamic duo of scorers who can also create for their teammates. But if there is one team that is built to stop them, it's Minnesota as they just shut down one of the best offenses in basketball in Denver. And is Luka going to be 100%? He's been nursing some injuries and certainly didn't look like himself at times in that last series.
I'm going to roll with the Wolves here for their size on the interior, defensive presence, and because their star, Anthony Edwards, is up for the challenge. The moment certainly doesn't feel too big for him at all as he continues to play at a high level even as the pressure mounts. Dallas is going to win a few games on the backs of a big Kyrie or Luka game (or both), but I think defense wins championships and this Minnesota team feels like a team of destiny at this point.
The safe bet is just to take the Wolves to win, but I will also put a half unit down on them finishing off Dallas in six games or less. I can't wait for a Minnesota-Boston final, I think that will be a compelling series. Let's see if we get it, or if Dallas or Indiana can pull off an upset in these Conference Finals.
Betting Pick(s): Wolves to win series (-170), Wolves -1.5 games (series spread, +125 DK)
Series Prediction: T-Wolves 4-2
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