2024 College Football Playoff Picture, Projections, Outlook (Week 14 Update)

This was intended to be a monthly update of the playoff picture, but things have gotten wild in the first couple weeks of November. Wild enough that we at RotoBaller thought it was necessary to do a weekly update for the last few weeks of the season. Week 13 was massive chaos and whittling this down to 12 teams with automatic bids is nearly impossible.

The SEC was completely upended with Alabama getting whipped in Norman. The Big 12 (16) is a zoo. The Big Ten (18) finally has some clarity. The college football playoff committee may not be rid of Indiana as quickly and seamlessly as they had hoped. Oh...and they have to try to figure out how to justify a three-loss SEC team.

This new playoff system ushers in a new era of college football. I have been openly critical about this, but I hope I am proved wrong. I fear that once the novelty of all of these wild conference games wears off, we will be left with an unimportant regular season and a 32-team playoff. You know they're not stopping at 12. The apocalypse is happening in Year 1.

College Football Playoff Overview

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the playoff. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. That will be the Power Four conference winners plus the next-highest-ranked conference champion.

Since the Pac-12 isn't a conference again (yet), Washington State and Oregon State will be treated as independents. The top-four-ranked teams will be given a first-round "bye."

BREAKING:

The CFP has just approved the 5+7 12-team playoff model.

5 highest-ranked conference champions + 7 highest-ranked at-large teams will get a spot.

The 2024 CFP will have one less automatic qualifier and one more at-large spot than the previously proposed 6+6 model. pic.twitter.com/Q0tQAcZ4J1

— Sidelines - Bama (@SSN_Alabama) February 20, 2024

That leaves seven at-large playoff teams. Again, we will have a committee to choose these teams. Those seven teams plus the other conference champion will play in the first round. Those games are held at the home stadium of the higher-ranked team.

This will be an exciting time for those teams. Honestly, I have always thought that the college football playoff games should be at on-campus stadiums instead of half-empty ready-made bowl stadiums. That is the one part about this playoff that I am in favor of.

Three-loss teams vying for a championship? If I wanted that mess, I would watch football on Sundays. There is a reason why I don't.

College Football Playoff Automatic Bids

ACC: 

SMU took care of business and is all but assured a spot in the ACC Championship Game. The committee hates this. This system was not designed with teams like SMU, Indiana, and BYU in mind. The committee hopes for the failure of these teams because other teams are worth more money. Who would have guessed that college football is still run by greed at the end of the day?

The second spot is down to Clemson and Miami. The ACC wants a Clemson-Miami title game, but they won't get it. The committee hopes that Miami sneaks in via the tiebreaker (they still aren't there) and beats SMU, rendering the ACC a one-bid league.

Big 12:

Kansas and Arizona State not only upended the apple cart, but they also cut down the apple trees and set the forest on fire. Big 12 (16) Armageddon happened. This was likely a one-bid league anyway. Now it's a certainty.

We have four 6-2 teams in the conference right now, but which one deserves the automatic bid? We'll go ahead and eliminate Colorado for its third loss. BYU has lost back-to-back games. Iowa State has won but struggled. I'll go with the Arizona State team that ruined K-State and BYU in back-to-back weeks to throw this conference into chaos.

Big Ten:

Indiana's ball security cost them against Ohio State and we're now having the dreaded strength of schedule conversation about the Hoosiers. This is still Oregon's automatic bid until someone takes it from them.

SEC:

Oklahoma and Florida nuked the SEC. Texas is the only one-loss team, so they are still the champions for the purpose of this exercise. We'll dive into the at-large mess later.

At-Large Champion:

Army lost, so the only other team in this conversation is Tulane. It's not as close as media outlets would have you believe. They just want something to talk about. This is Boise State's bid, and they may get a bye with the way the Big 12 (16) is going.

College Football Playoff At-Large Bids

ACC:

We have some clarity in the ACC now. SMU is in the conference championship game; Clemson needs Miami to lose because they are now behind in the tiebreaker. After all, Miami beat Louisville and the Tigers didn't. The question now is whether the loser of the SMU-Miami game could claim an at-large spot.

SMU's loss to BYU isn't looking great right now. If you're going to dog the Big 12 for going in the tank, it's because BYU has lost back-to-back games. The same BYU team that beat SMU. This week, both teams are still in. If SMU loses to Miami, I think they're out.

Big 12: 

This is a one-bid league. Don't believe the smoke they're blowing about a loss in the conference championship game not keeping a team out. An SEC team may survive a third loss in the CCG. A Big 12 team won't.

Big Ten:

Ohio State is in. Penn State is likely in despite only beating one ranked team. Indiana is in a world of trouble because Notre Dame smashed Army. While that knocked Army out, it all but assured Notre Dame a spot and it could come at the expense of Indiana.

Indiana's schedule is still terrible. Most people will just look at the score of the Ohio State game and immediately disqualify the Hoosiers. It's unfortunate because the offense and defense looked pretty good in that game. Special teams doomed them.

In my mind, I would put Indiana in over Alabama because Alabama lost to two five-loss teams. Both will likely suffer their sixth loss this weekend. I don't care if they are on the road. You shouldn't lose to two average teams and get to play for a championship. It's dumb. This isn't the NFL.

If Alabama rolls Auburn and Indiana struggles with Purdue, then we have another discussion about this next week. For me, Indiana is still in this week.

SEC: 

Last week we went from touting Alabama's wins against the top 25, but why can't they beat 6-5 teams? Georgia and Tennessee are in as two-loss teams. How many others can the SEC get in? Is Indiana more deserving than a three-loss SEC team?

The only other two-loss team in the SEC is Texas A&M, but the loss to Notre Dame gives them three overall losses. If we have the five conference champions, Penn State, Ohio State, and Miami, that's eight teams already without looking at the SEC.

We decided that Georgia and Tennessee are in, so we're already up to 10 teams. That leaves two slots for Indiana, Notre Dame, or the five three-loss SEC teams (Alabama, A&M, Missouri, South Carolina, and Mississippi). Seven teams for two slots. Did anyone think this would be easy?

It can be, but SEC homers are going to be very unhappy. Things will likely change during rivalry week. Can it top Week 13?

Those pesky teams that won't join a conference:

We're only talking about Notre Dame here. Who else would it be? Washington State and Oregon State would love to join a conference. Notre Dame's only loss is to a 6-5 MAC team. The win over Army and how they did it only helped their cause this week.

Hey, I don't blame Notre Dame for running up the score and I don't have a problem with it. College football doesn't care about sportsmanship and hasn't in decades. The only ones who do are the coaches, but they all understand that you have to do what you have to do when it comes to style points. The fans get more bent out of shape about it than anyone involved in the games.

The problem for Notre Dame is that Northern Illinois is in the middle of the MAC. Their other big win over Louisville takes a hit thanks to Louisville's loss to a bad Stanford team. The Navy win? Tulane shut out Navy in Annapolis. That one loses some luster too. The Army win is good for now, but what if they lose to Tulane?

I'm going to offend the lot of you and keep all of the three-loss teams out of the playoff. That is the simplest way to handle this right now.

What I came up with for the seven at-large teams: Miami, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Tennessee, and Notre Dame.

College Football Playoff As Of November 26

Byes: Oregon (1), Texas (3), SMU (9), Boise State (11)

Other automatic qualifier: Arizona State (14)

At-large teams: Ohio State (2), Penn State (4), Notre Dame (5), Georgia (6), Tennessee (7), Miami (8), and Indiana (10).

My updated college football playoff projection pic.twitter.com/SButFWRldb

— Bud Elliott (@BudElliott3) November 25, 2024

This person gets it. I still have SMU as the ACC Champion right now, but that will sort itself out. The point is that ACC has two bids, Notre Dame is in, and Indiana/SMU crashes the party. The committee can find solace in the fact that they won't have to give these "imposters" a home playoff game.

These super-huge conferences are an issue. They will be the death of the 12-team playoff in a matter of three years or less. We have no major games in the Big Ten this week, which is a conference that sorely needs one. Then again, last week's big game accomplished nothing. Ohio State and Indiana are both still in the playoffs.

This isn't over. Not by a long shot. If Texas wins out and wins the SEC Championship game, the loser of the SEC Championship will have three losses and there will likely be another team with two losses who skates in because they "missed" the conference championship. Sign me up for that.

If you thought whittling the field down to four was tough (it wasn't ... 2023 was the only year of the four-team playoff where it could have been necessary), wait until you see the arguments over 12! I don't know about you, but I would rather be arguing over which one-loss team deserves a shot over arguing about which three-loss team deserves a shot.

If you're wondering what the older (and better) playoff system would look like now, it would feature three Big Ten (18) teams. Paul Finebaum's head would explode.

Since we are doing this piece weekly now, I'm going to highlight a few games this weekend of interest.

Mississippi State at Mississippi: For the first time in nearly a decade, the Egg Bowl is not on Thanksgiving. Ole Miss is still out of the playoffs though.

Georgia Tech at Georgia: It's Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate...with a lot riding on the game for Georgia (again).

Michigan at Ohio State: It would be an epic failure by Ohio State to lose this, but I'm not saying it isn't possible.

Tennessee at Vanderbilt: Vandy ruined one team's season this year in Nashville. Can they do it again?

South Carolina at Clemson: The Gamecocks are one of the few three-loss teams that can help their cause in rivalry week.

Auburn at Alabama: The Iron Bowl loses a bit of luster, but Auburn can put this beyond a shadow of a doubt with a win.

Miami (FL) at Syracuse: A loss would likely knock Miami out, but who knows? It's chaotic out there.

California at SMU: It's simple for SMU. If they win, it's a playoff berth regardless of the outcome of the ACC Championship.

Arizona State at Arizona: The Sun Devils are still made about last year's Territorial Cup. If they exact revenge, they get a trip to the Big 12 (16) Championship.

Purdue at Indiana: I have a feeling that Indiana needs to do what Notre Dame is doing: running up the score.

Texas at Texas A&M: The Aggies can do their rivals dirty with an upset win, even though they're still out.

Kansas State at Iowa State: It's Farmageddon! Do we need a reason? Iowa State needs a win to stay in the Big 12 (16) race.

Houston at BYU: If BYU wins this game, we'll have to study the Big 12 tiebreaker rules.

We are still college football fans, so we will argue over whatever they tell us to argue about. We could have a clearer picture by next week. It could be even worse. Who knows? Until then, happy arguing!

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