2024 3M Open Course Breakdown - TPC Twin Cities

6 months ago by Joe I (TourPicks)

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You won't find back-to-back weeks on the PGA Tour that are more different in architecture, difficulty, and appearance than we have this week when players head to TPC Twin Cities after much of the field just finished playing Royal Troon in Scotland. That said, one thing that this course brings to the table is less variability, making it easier to handicap and predict. There is the opportunity this week to have a profitable week in both DFS and betting if you have a proper understanding of the golf course.

While the field strength is less than stellar, I believe the golf course itself has several intricacies that lend it to being a predictable benefit for certain player skill-sets. I'll do a deep dive into some of the historical data, as well as analyze how current stat profiles align with what TPC Twin Cities typically rewards. I always enjoy weeks like this where it feels like the prevailing narrative is that most in the industry have taken the week off, so let's get into TPC Twin Cities and dominate the slates.

I wanted to use this piece to hopefully highlight a few different angles and elements that may be less spoken about to provide some value in this course preview. I'm hopeful that you can utilize this for building lineups and making your stat models to provide you with the best possible chances of success this week. In this course preview, we'll delve into some of the distinctive features that make TPC Twin Cities unique, hoping that it will assist in your preparation for the upcoming tournament.

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An Introduction to TPC Twin Cities

TPC Twin Cities is a relatively new golf course, opened in 2000, and was the brainchild of a joint venture between the PGA TOUR and golf legend Arnold Palmer, who played a pivotal role in its design along with celebrated course architect Tom Lehman, a Minnesota native. The defining feature of the golf course is the water, which comes into play on 15 holes and makes the course feel like someone took a Florida-style golf course and dropped it randomly in Blaine, Minnesota.

One year after opening, TPC Twin Cities began hosting the 3M Championship, a PGA TOUR Champions event. In 2019, TPC Twin Cities took another significant step in its history by hosting the inaugural 3M Open, a PGA TOUR event which has now settled into it's spot on the schedule as being a regular venue on the PGA Tour schedule. The course underwent a slgith renovation in 2018 at the hands of Steve Venzloff to lengthen the course in an effort to become a better test for PGA Tour players ahead of it's first host event.

This past year, a stormy September left many of the bunkers in disarray and destroyed. Half of them have now been completely rebuilt ahead of the 2024 3M Open. Tour players have turned this event into a birdie-fest, annually ranking inside the top 5 in easiest courses. That said, the water produces some big scores, and unlike what we saw at the John Deere Classic and Rocket Mortgage, bogeys will be in play often due to the magnitude of hazards. The course has a great closing hole, one of my favorite on Tour. Take a look. Drama!

Will Emma go for it on #18 at TPC Twin Cities? pic.twitter.com/sn9NY0QRuD

— 3M Open (@3MOpen) June 28, 2024

Scorecard:

Course Specs

This is a Driver-heavy golf course. Despite the presence of water on 15 holes which typically borders the fairway, players have no problem deploying Driver off the tee. The fairways are more than generous, averaging 38 yards wide and they don't narrow enough to discourage players who bomb it. There has been a decent mix of accuracy and bombers that have had success here, but I think this course really allows players to unlock some of the pin locations based on how far they hit it down the fairway.

The greens average 6,500 sq. ft. in size and are pure Bentgrass. While the majority of PGA Tour courses have some blend of Bentgrass in them, it's worth noting that these are Pure Bent which is often utilized in the midwest during the summers. They are flat and generally easy to putt. If you can hit greens in regulation at TPC Twin Cities, you are going to be left with a bunch of good opportunities at Birdie and putts that players can be aggressive with.

The Par 5's are one of keys to scoring. There is only three of them on the card, but they all play 590 yards and will be reachable for most of the field, given that they can hit the fairway off the tee. The par 4s are on the longer side but it should not present too many problems for players given the elevation and added distance. The par 3s at TPC Twin Cities are some of the easiest on the PGA Tour schedule. The greens are flat and receptive and will give players the chance to make birdies in bunches.

Statistical Considerations

I am going to favor distance over accuracy off the tee, but I understand that a case could be potentially made for either. The thing is, with the wide fairways, it's not crazy to think that a bomber who hits the ball 315 yards can still achieve 60% of fairways for the week. However, it's impossible for a player to suddenly pick up 20 yards off the tee. I'll take my chance and favor Driving Distance, while still factoring in a bit of Total Driving.

Also, in terms of off-the-tee stuff, I think you would be wise to look into "Right Miss Tendency". It's a stat that is becoming more available on most model building websites and as I mentioned, you cannot miss right of the fairway at TPC Twin Cities. Most professional players have a one-way miss. If you are looking at a right-handed player, you are better off playing a guy who favors a draw and misses left vs. a fader who has a big right miss.

I also looked into strokes gained approach from 160-225 yards. As you will see in the DataGolf graph below, that is where the majority of approach shots will come from and they are at a higher rate than PGA Tour average. TPC Twin Cities is one of the longer courses on Tour and only plays as a par 71, so being able to score and hit it close with your long irons is paramount to success around this course.

Lastly, this could quickly turn into a putting contest if there is no wind. I'm looking at long term strokes gained putting and short term strokes gained putting on pure Bentgrass greens. Lastly, you can never go wrong with sprinkling in a little bit of course history as a difference maker.