X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Jahan Dotson

Jahan Dotson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Phil Clark's fantasy football analysis for wide receiver Jahan Dotson. Is this NFL second-year receiver a 2023 fantasy football breakout candidate?

Many of you have been participating in Best Ball leagues throughout the draft season and will maintain your involvement in this format until the regular season is underway. Most of you are also determining your strategy as you construct rosters in redraft leagues while remaining aware that you should maintain flexibility in your decision-making based on the flow of every draft.

Your ongoing analysis includes the identification of players who could exceed expectations while achieving breakout status. The term ‘breakout’ has garnered frequent use within the fantasy community. This has fueled the emergence of multiple interpretations surrounding what constitutes a breakout player. For the purposes of this article, the term breakout will be defined as the ability to generate career-best numbers, while also outperforming the expectations of ADPs in Best Ball and redraft leagues.

That scenario applies to Jahan Dotson, who is primed to easily surpass the numbers that he assembled as a rookie, and is also being undervalued in current drafts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Jahan Dotson's Path To A First-Round Selection  

Jahan Dotson excelled at basketball, track and field at the high-school level which included capturing state championships in both the long jump and the 400x100-meter relay. However, it was Dotson’s accomplishments in football that provided the pathway for him to emerge in the NFL, and he is now positioned to ascend toward a higher tier within the fantasy landscape.

Dotson initially became a starter during his freshman year and ultimately accumulated 127 receptions, 1,876 receiving yards, and 25 receiving touchdowns in three seasons at Nazareth High School (Pennsylvania). Dotson also assembled 503 yards and three touchdowns with his 23 catches during his one year at Peddie High School (New Jersey) and later emerged as a four-star recruit.

 

Jahan Dotson's Rise To Prominence At Penn State 

Dotson originally committed to UCLA in September of 2017, before decommitting and signing with Penn State three months later. He started 38 of his 42 games during four seasons as a Nittany Lion (2018-2021) while accumulating 183 receptions, 2,757 yards, and 25 touchdowns during that span.

He became Penn State’s top receiving weapon after KJ Hamler departed for the NFL. Dotson led the Nittany Lions in receptions (52), receiving yards (884), and receiving touchdowns (eight) during 2020. He also paced the team in all three categories during 2021 (91 receptions/1,182 yards/12 touchdowns) and concluded his career in a tie for the second-highest number of receptions and touchdowns in school history.

2021 Targets Rec Yards YPG TD
Jahan Dotson 146 91 1,182 98.5 12
Parker Washington 91 64 820 63.1 4
Keandre Lambert-Smith 64 34 521 40.1 3

Dotson also became the 10th player in Penn State’s history to assemble 2,000+ yards, while averaging 2.56 yards per route run according to PFF. He also departed Penn State with a 5.2% drop rate from 2019-2021, which decreased to 2.2% during his final season as a Nittany Lion.

Dotson also became an All-Big Ten selection after his performance throughout 2021. He was also a semifinalist for the Walter Camp Award and was named as the Nittany Lions’ team MVP. Dotson also departed Penn State as the school’s all-time leader in punt return average (17.8), while also establishing a single-season record (24.6) in 2020.

However, it was the favorable collection of skills that Dotson consistently displayed as a receiver that created his runway toward what should be a prolific career at the NFL level. This includes his exceptional route-running ability, which enables him to effectively create space while executing routes at every level. His acumen as a route runner, and his favorable blend of speed, elusiveness, and reliability also incentivized Washington to secure Dotson during Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft.

 

Jahan Dotson's Promising Rookie Season 

Dotson became the fifth wide receiver to be selected during the draft when the Commanders seized him with the 16th overall pick. This positioned Dotson to seize a significant role in Washington’s aerial attack. He promptly attained a team-high 93.4% snap share in Weeks 1-2, which placed him 14th overall.

Dotson also rose to fourth among all wide receivers in routes run from Weeks 1-3 (140),  while soaring to a tie for second with three touchdowns. He also led Washington in snap share (91.2%), while averaging six targets, three receptions, and 36.3 yards per game during that span. 

Weeks 1-3 Routes
Ja'Marr Chase 153
Elijah Moore 146
Marquise Brown 142
Jahan Dotson 140
Curtis Samuel 139
Greg Dortch 138
Terry McLaurin 136
Davante Adams 132
Corey Davis 128
Tyler Boyd 127
Justin Jefferson 123

 

Weeks 1-3 TDs
Stefon Diggs 4
Jahan Dotson 3
Cooper Kupp 3
Davante Adams 3
Amon-Ra St. Brown 3
Jaylen Waddle 3
Christian Kirk 3
Michael Thomas 3
Devin Duvernay 3

Dotson also captured three of his four targets and generated 43 yards before sustaining a hamstring injury in Week 4. That became a lingering issue for Dotson, as he was unavailable for the Commanders’ next five games.  The troublesome hamstring also impacted his usage and output from Weeks 10-12 (four targets/two receptions/27 yards) before Dotson regained his health, and delivered encouraging numbers during Washington's final six matchups.

Weeks 15-18 Targ % Targ/Gm Rec/Gm Yards/Gm YAC AY
Jahan Dotson 24.3 6.5 4 72.5 91 382
Terry McLaurin 20.6 5.5 3.8 61.5 67 264
Curtis Samuel 12.2 3.3 2.5 25 47 130

 

Weeks 15-18 TPRR% YPRR Routes YPT YPR aDOT
Jahan Dotson 22.2 2.48 117 11.2 18.1 13.9
Terry McLaurin 18.5 2.07 119 11.2 16.4 11.7
Curtis Samuel 11.8 0.91 110 7.7 10 9.3

Dotson led the Commandeers in target share (23.8%), targets per route run (29.9%), and air yards (471) from Weeks 13-18. He also paced the Commanders in target share (24.3%), targets per route run (22.2%), receptions (16/4.0 per game), receiving yards (290/72.5 per game), air yards (382), yards per route run (2.48) and yards after catch (91), from Weeks 15-18.

He also captured 7+ targets and produced a touchdown during two of his final four outings, while generating 70+ yards in three of those matchups. Dotson's late-season statistical surge also propelled him into a tie with Christian Watson for the most touchdowns among all rookies (seven) from Weeks 1-18. He also finished 10th overall in yards before catch per reception (11.0) and 14th in aDOT (13.5) during his first season.

Dotson also generated 72 receiving yards in Week 18, when Sam Howell was spearheading Washington's offense. Dotson also secured a 22.2% target share during that matchup, while leading the Commanders in yards per route run (3.27), yards per target (18.0), aDOT (14.3), and yards after catch (50). He should build upon those results as he continues to operate with Howell during the regular season.

 

Jahan Dotson’s Integral Role In Washington’s Offense

Dotson joined Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel in finishing as the top three in targets, receiving yards, air yards, and receiving touchdowns, among all players on Washington's roster during 2022.  Dotson’s accomplishment gains significance considering the lengthy sequence in which his production was impeded by the hamstring injury. Logan Thomas (14.9) and Antonio Gibson (12.1%) were the only other receiving options who exceeded a 7.3% target share.

Weeks 1-18 Routes Targ/Gm Rec/Gm Yards TPRR% YPRR
Terry McLaurin 495 7.1 4.5 70.1 24.2 2.41
Curtis Samuel 472 5.4 3.8 38.6 19.5 1.39
Jahan Dotson 316 5.1 2.9 43.6 19.3 1.66
Logan Thomas 278 4.4 2.8 23.1 21.9 1.16
Antonio Gibson 213 3.9 3.1 23.5 27.2 1.66

Washington ranked 20th with an average of 32.6 passing attempts per game last season and the Commanders were 22nd in pass play percentage (52.8%). Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke combined for 16 starts during 2022 while Howell guided Washington’s attack in Week 18. The trio combined to distribute 58.8% of their targets to wide receivers, which ranked 20th overall. Several offseason developments will fuel a transformation within Washington’s offense, including the transition to Howell under center.

Eric Bieniemy has also replaced former OC Scott Turner. This will ensure some modifications to the Commanders' attack during Bienemy’s first season as the play caller. However, that should not preclude Dotson and McLaurin from operating as the teams' most targeted options. Washington also did not infuse any additional receiving weapons into the equation during the offseason that would prevent Samuel, Thomas, and Gibson from remaining directly below McLaurin and Dotson in target distribution.

 

Jahan Dotson's Competition For Targets 

It remains conceivable that Dotson could challenge McLaurin for the team lead in target share this season. Both receivers will remain cemented as the most critical weapons in the Commanders’ aerial efforts. McLaurin begins his fifth season in Washington, having led the Commanders in target share during his first four years with the team. He has also accumulated 120+ targets, 77+ receptions, 1,050 receiving yards, and 1,300+ air yards during each of the last three seasons.

McLaurin also paced the team in each of those categories during 2020 although his numbers were impacted by multiple transitions at quarterback. McLaurin was relegated to a 16.4% target share with Wentz under center (Weeks 1-6) and was targeted on 15.6% of his routes. During that sequence, he also averaged 6.2 targets/3.7, receptions/61.2 yards per game.

McLaurin’s target share rose to 28.4% while Heinicke was guiding Washington’s attack (Weeks 7-16). His averages also improved to 8.0 targets/5.6 receptions/80.6 yards per game. McLaurin was targeted on 35% of his routes, while vaulting to third overall in yards per route run (3.52), eighth in receiving yards (725), and 11th in yards after catch (225).

Samuel should finish third behind McLaurin and Dotson in most receiving categories this season. However, Samuel will not replicate the usage and output that he attained with Wentz under center, which preceded a massive decline in his numbers as the season advanced. Samuel paced Washington in target share (22.2%), targets per route run (20.2%), red zone targets (six), and yards after catch (152) from Weeks 1-6, when Wentz was spearheading the offense.

Samuel was also eighth overall in receptions (34/5.7 per game), and 13th in targets (50/8.3 per game) during that sequence. However, Samuel's numbers declined from Weeks 7-18, as he plunged to third behind Dotson and McLaurin in target share (14.0%), targets per route run (18.7), and red zone targets (three), while averaging just 3.8 targets/2.7 receptions per game.

 

Jahan Dotson Is Primed To Outperform Expectations 

Dotson’s steady progress toward functioning as a highly-productive weapon at the NFL level was displayed during several encouraging sequences last season. The cost of selecting him during your upcoming drafts would also be more substantial if his persistent hamstring issue had not emerged last season. However, this presents you with an opportunity, as his current ADP places him in Round 8 in FFPC Best Ball leagues (89/WR39), and NFFC leagues (86/WR37).

Dotson remains a dynamic and versatile receiver, who possesses the speed to operate effectively as a vertical weapon. His favorable footwork blends with his quickness, and route-running acumen to help him secure separation and accumulate yards after the catch on short and intermediate routes. He can also prevail in congested catch situations and is primed to flourish with the sizable role that he has secured with Washington.

Even though Bieniemy will make adjustments to Washington’s offense as he concocts each week's strategic approach, Dotson's involvement in the attack should remain sizable. His favorable collection of attributes that have been mentioned previously will position him to maximize his opportunities as he develops into a prolific roster resource.

Dotson should also assemble numbers that will reward you for investing in him near his current ADP. He is being selected as a WR4, even though he should deliver WR3 production and possesses the potential to approach WR2 territory.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Owen Caissie

Riding Six-Game Hitting Streak
Thomas White

Racking Up Strikeouts At High-A
Travis Bazzana

Hits Skid At Double-A
Brandon Walter

Sharp At Triple-A
James Outman

Swinging A Hot Bat At Triple-A
C.J. Kayfus

Headed To Triple-A
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Picks Up Fourth Save On Monday
Ryan O'Hearn

Homers On Monday
Hunter Goodman

Homers On Monday
Bryce Elder

Picks Up First Win Of The Season On Monday
Jesse Winker

Scores Four Runs On Monday
Michael Harris II

Doubles, Steals A Base On Monday
Jeff McNeil

Hits Three-Run HR On Monday
Ryan Jeffers

Homers, Drives In Three On Monday
Dane Myers

Hits Grand Slam On Monday
Riley Greene

Homers Twice On Monday
Moises Ballesteros

Now The Triple-A Batting Average Leader
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Raisel Iglesias

Notches Fifth Save Monday
JP Sears

Fans Seven In Monday's Win
Josh Hader

Earns Eighth Save Of Season Monday
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers

Quentin Johnston Needs To Earn His Spot In Training Camp
Los Angeles Chargers

Hassan Haskins The Leader For No. 3 RB Job
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Plan For 1-2 Punch At RB With Omarion Hampton, Najee Harris
New England Patriots

Patriots View TreVeyon Henderson As A Three-Down Back
Cleveland Browns

Browns View Quinshon Judkins As A Potential Bell-Cow Back
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Plan To Develop Jalen Milroe As A QB
Tennessee Titans

Titans Unlikely To Pick Up Treylon Burks' Fifth-Year Option
Cleveland Browns

Browns Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To Elijah Moore
Cleveland Browns

Browns Agree To One-Year Deal With Diontae Johnson
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Could Reunite With Amari Cooper
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Sign Robert Woods To One-Year Deal
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
Cleveland Browns

Browns Decline Kenny Pickett's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Giants Won't Pick Up Evan Neal's Fifth-Year Option
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Ikem Ekwonu
Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert Could Remain An Eagle
Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Could Still Add Wide Receiver Help Prior To 2025 Season
Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders Struggled During Pre-Draft Process
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Visiting With Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars

Emmanuel Ogbah Signs With Jaguars
New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Undergoes MRI Exam
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Ivan Demidov

Has Historic Outing In Game 4
Timo Meier

Records Two Points Sunday
Andrei Svechnikov

Nets Hat Trick In Game 4 Win
Leon Draisaitl

Caps Off Four-Point Effort With First Postseason Overtime Goal
Connor Hellebuyck

Gets Pulled Again
Alexandre Carrier

Fails To Finish Game 4
Tyler Tucker

Makes Early Exit Sunday
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF