2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Jahan Dotson

Many of you have been participating in Best Ball leagues throughout the draft season and will maintain your involvement in this format until the regular season is underway. Most of you are also determining your strategy as you construct rosters in redraft leagues while remaining aware that you should maintain flexibility in your decision-making based on the flow of every draft.

Your ongoing analysis includes the identification of players who could exceed expectations while achieving breakout status. The term ‘breakout’ has garnered frequent use within the fantasy community. This has fueled the emergence of multiple interpretations surrounding what constitutes a breakout player. For the purposes of this article, the term breakout will be defined as the ability to generate career-best numbers, while also outperforming the expectations of ADPs in Best Ball and redraft leagues.

That scenario applies to Jahan Dotson, who is primed to easily surpass the numbers that he assembled as a rookie, and is also being undervalued in current drafts.

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Jahan Dotson's Path To A First-Round Selection  

Jahan Dotson excelled at basketball, track and field at the high-school level which included capturing state championships in both the long jump and the 400x100-meter relay. However, it was Dotson’s accomplishments in football that provided the pathway for him to emerge in the NFL, and he is now positioned to ascend toward a higher tier within the fantasy landscape.

Dotson initially became a starter during his freshman year and ultimately accumulated 127 receptions, 1,876 receiving yards, and 25 receiving touchdowns in three seasons at Nazareth High School (Pennsylvania). Dotson also assembled 503 yards and three touchdowns with his 23 catches during his one year at Peddie High School (New Jersey) and later emerged as a four-star recruit.

Jahan Dotson's Rise To Prominence At Penn State 

Dotson originally committed to UCLA in September of 2017, before decommitting and signing with Penn State three months later. He started 38 of his 42 games during four seasons as a Nittany Lion (2018-2021) while accumulating 183 receptions, 2,757 yards, and 25 touchdowns during that span.

He became Penn State’s top receiving weapon after KJ Hamler departed for the NFL. Dotson led the Nittany Lions in receptions (52), receiving yards (884), and receiving touchdowns (eight) during 2020. He also paced the team in all three categories during 2021 (91 receptions/1,182 yards/12 touchdowns) and concluded his career in a tie for the second-highest number of receptions and touchdowns in school history.

Dotson also became the 10th player in Penn State’s history to assemble 2,000+ yards, while averaging 2.56 yards per route run according to PFF. He also departed Penn State with a 5.2% drop rate from 2019-2021, which decreased to 2.2% during his final season as a Nittany Lion.

Dotson also became an All-Big Ten selection after his performance throughout 2021. He was also a semifinalist for the Walter Camp Award and was named as the Nittany Lions’ team MVP. Dotson also departed Penn State as the school’s all-time leader in punt return average (17.8), while also establishing a single-season record (24.6) in 2020.

However, it was the favorable collection of skills that Dotson consistently displayed as a receiver that created his runway toward what should be a prolific career at the NFL level. This includes his exceptional route-running ability, which enables him to effectively create space while executing routes at every level. His acumen as a route runner, and his favorable blend of speed, elusiveness, and reliability also incentivized Washington to secure Dotson during Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Jahan Dotson's Promising Rookie Season 

Dotson became the fifth wide receiver to be selected during the draft when the Commanders seized him with the 16th overall pick. This positioned Dotson to seize a significant role in Washington’s aerial attack. He promptly attained a team-high 93.4% snap share in Weeks 1-2, which placed him 14th overall.

Dotson also rose to fourth among all wide receivers in routes run from Weeks 1-3 (140),  while soaring to a tie for second with three touchdowns. He also led Washington in snap share (91.2%), while averaging six targets, three receptions, and 36.3 yards per game during that span. 

Dotson also captured three of his four targets and generated 43 yards before sustaining a hamstring injury in Week 4. That became a lingering issue for Dotson, as he was unavailable for the Commanders’ next five games.  The troublesome hamstring also impacted his usage and output from Weeks 10-12 (four targets/two receptions/27 yards) before Dotson regained his health, and delivered encouraging numbers during Washington's final six matchups.

Dotson led the Commandeers in target share (23.8%), targets per route run (29.9%), and air yards (471) from Weeks 13-18. He also paced the Commanders in target share (24.3%), targets per route run (22.2%), receptions (16/4.0 per game), receiving yards (290/72.5 per game), air yards (382), yards per route run (2.48) and yards after catch (91), from Weeks 15-18.

He also captured 7+ targets and produced a touchdown during two of his final four outings, while generating 70+ yards in three of those matchups. Dotson's late-season statistical surge also propelled him into a tie with Christian Watson for the most touchdowns among all rookies (seven) from Weeks 1-18. He also finished 10th overall in yards before catch per reception (11.0) and 14th in aDOT (13.5) during his first season.

Dotson also generated 72 receiving yards in Week 18, when Sam Howell was spearheading Washington's offense. Dotson also secured a 22.2% target share during that matchup, while leading the Commanders in yards per route run (3.27), yards per target (18.0), aDOT (14.3), and yards after catch (50). He should build upon those results as he continues to operate with Howell during the regular season.

Jahan Dotson’s Integral Role In Washington’s Offense

Dotson joined Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel in finishing as the top three in targets, receiving yards, air yards, and receiving touchdowns, among all players on Washington's roster during 2022.  Dotson’s accomplishment gains significance considering the lengthy sequence in which his production was impeded by the hamstring injury. Logan Thomas (14.9) and Antonio Gibson (12.1%) were the only other receiving options who exceeded a 7.3% target share.

Washington ranked 20th with an average of 32.6 passing attempts per game last season and the Commanders were 22nd in pass play percentage (52.8%). Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke combined for 16 starts during 2022 while Howell guided Washington’s attack in Week 18. The trio combined to distribute 58.8% of their targets to wide receivers, which ranked 20th overall. Several offseason developments will fuel a transformation within Washington’s offense, including the transition to Howell under center.

Eric Bieniemy has also replaced former OC Scott Turner. This will ensure some modifications to the Commanders' attack during Bienemy’s first season as the play caller. However, that should not preclude Dotson and McLaurin from operating as the teams' most targeted options. Washington also did not infuse any additional receiving weapons into the equation during the offseason that would prevent Samuel, Thomas, and Gibson from remaining directly below McLaurin and Dotson in target distribution.

Jahan Dotson's Competition For Targets 

It remains conceivable that Dotson could challenge McLaurin for the team lead in target share this season. Both receivers will remain cemented as the most critical weapons in the Commanders’ aerial efforts. McLaurin begins his fifth season in Washington, having led the Commanders in target share during his first four years with the team. He has also accumulated 120+ targets, 77+ receptions, 1,050 receiving yards, and 1,300+ air yards during each of the last three seasons.

McLaurin also paced the team in each of those categories during 2020 although his numbers were impacted by multiple transitions at quarterback. McLaurin was relegated to a 16.4% target share with Wentz under center (Weeks 1-6) and was targeted on 15.6% of his routes. During that sequence, he also averaged 6.2 targets/3.7, receptions/61.2 yards per game.

McLaurin’s target share rose to 28.4% while Heinicke was guiding Washington’s attack (Weeks 7-16). His averages also improved to 8.0 targets/5.6 receptions/80.6 yards per game. McLaurin was targeted on 35% of his routes, while vaulting to third overall in yards per route run (3.52), eighth in receiving yards (725), and 11th in yards after catch (225).

Samuel should finish third behind McLaurin and Dotson in most receiving categories this season. However, Samuel will not replicate the usage and output that he attained with Wentz under center, which preceded a massive decline in his numbers as the season advanced. Samuel paced Washington in target share (22.2%), targets per route run (20.2%), red zone targets (six), and yards after catch (152) from Weeks 1-6, when Wentz was spearheading the offense.

Samuel was also eighth overall in receptions (34/5.7 per game), and 13th in targets (50/8.3 per game) during that sequence. However, Samuel's numbers declined from Weeks 7-18, as he plunged to third behind Dotson and McLaurin in target share (14.0%), targets per route run (18.7), and red zone targets (three), while averaging just 3.8 targets/2.7 receptions per game.

Jahan Dotson Is Primed To Outperform Expectations 

Dotson’s steady progress toward functioning as a highly-productive weapon at the NFL level was displayed during several encouraging sequences last season. The cost of selecting him during your upcoming drafts would also be more substantial if his persistent hamstring issue had not emerged last season. However, this presents you with an opportunity, as his current ADP places him in Round 8 in FFPC Best Ball leagues (89/WR39), and NFFC leagues (86/WR37).

Dotson remains a dynamic and versatile receiver, who possesses the speed to operate effectively as a vertical weapon. His favorable footwork blends with his quickness, and route-running acumen to help him secure separation and accumulate yards after the catch on short and intermediate routes. He can also prevail in congested catch situations and is primed to flourish with the sizable role that he has secured with Washington.

Even though Bieniemy will make adjustments to Washington’s offense as he concocts each week's strategic approach, Dotson's involvement in the attack should remain sizable. His favorable collection of attributes that have been mentioned previously will position him to maximize his opportunities as he develops into a prolific roster resource.

Dotson should also assemble numbers that will reward you for investing in him near his current ADP. He is being selected as a WR4, even though he should deliver WR3 production and possesses the potential to approach WR2 territory.

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