Starting Pitcher Risers and Fallers - ERA Regression Candidates for Fantasy Baseball

June 3, 2023

Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) explores the pitchers through one-third of the MLB season who are either due for positive or negative regression moving forward.

The regression fairy (or monster) has many faces. Sometimes positive, sometimes negative, or sometimes just barren. While water will always find its level for every player surrounding a baseball diamond, pitchers specifically have it the roughest as one bad outing can define a full chunk of a season.

Hitters can only go 0-for-6 at worst in a game more often than not. Pitchers can tack on upwards to low double-digit earned runs while allowing a flurry of bases to batters, hyper-inflating both their ERA and WHIP, if a manager is not kind enough to pull them early. These results could stain a truly quality SP and eschew us from certain league-winning players. Luckily, advanced metrics created by talented baseball analysts have paved the way for fantasy players to see beyond the surface numbers and understand that ERA is almost always a number backed by more luck than skill throughout parts of any season.

Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) explores the pitchers through one-third of the MLB who are either due for positive or negative regression moving forward.

Negative ERA Regression

Bryce Elder - Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elder is en route to becoming a household name if his luck, I mean...play keeps up going forward. With an ERA below 2.00, Elder leads the major leagues and could be considered an NL Cy Young candidate at the moment despite ERA indicators showing everyone that he is much closer to just a solid SP rather than an elite one.

Bryce Elder's ERA is now 1.92. pic.twitter.com/lR1jkykvK2

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 31, 2023

Elder's strikeout numbers are pedestrian at just 21.1% but he does suppress walks decently at 7.2%. Most importantly for his surface numbers, he is a groundball machine (57.6%) playing in front of an elite infield defense. Elder is a fine pitcher who can go deep into games. There is no reason to drop or bench him anytime soon but temper expectations as he is far from what we have seen thus far.

Josiah Gray - Washington Nationals

Josiah Gray has been teetering on the edge of danger all season. His 2.77 ERA can only be described as a fluke regardless of which underlying metric you prefer (xFIP, FIP, SIERA, or xERA). He walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out while his home runs per fly ball are cut in half from his career numbers thus far despite any substantive change. A case can be made that Gray has gotten WORSE since last year when he posted an ERA nearly twice as high as this season.

While it is difficult to drop someone with Gray's numbers, you can save yourself the pain of what is to come by taking the money made thus far and running from the table.

Cristian Javier - Houston Astros

Over Javier's past three starts, he has a 1.59 ERA and a massive 5.72 xFIP. This differential is largely the result of a 10.9% K-BB in this span along with a .167 BABIP. Most concerning in this span is that he accomplished this clean stretch against teams that are not exactly powerhouses in the Oakland A's, Milwaukee Brewers, and Chicago Cubs (none in the top 10, two in the bottom six).

Javier's fly ball tendencies pay off typically as they keep the ball in the park along with runners in place but luck has a funny way of working both ways. If Javier fails to regain the strikeout numbers he displayed over the past two seasons, the contact he's allowing now may bite him back sooner than later. His next two opponents - the Angels and Blue Jays - are no scrubs and could bring some regression his way.

Positive ERA Regression

Logan Gilbert - Seattle Mariners

Logan Gilbert has pitched extremely well this season, arguably the best of his career, yet his ERA is nearly a full run higher than in 2022. The strikeouts are up and bordering on elite at 28.7% while the walks are down and again, bordering on elite at 4.3%. Gilbert does everything right as he is inducing more groundballs and preventing home runs per usual. However, he is receiving no help from lady luck with a left-on-base percentage that is the worst of his three-year career.

Logan Gilbert, Disappearing 86mph Splitter. 👻 pic.twitter.com/cjMJ0jDYVG

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 26, 2023

The Mariners defense is somewhat solid yet runners continue to reach home more than they should against Gilbert. Assuming that his strikeouts and walks stay the course, Gilbert should be on the receiving side of luck moving forward as this is likely just a rough stretch of variance.

Lance Lynn - Chicago White Sox

Lance Lynn is the definition of a time bomb this season. Just when you think it is safe...BOOM. He posted three-straight quality outings before his most recent blow-up versus the Angels and had managers believing the regression from his earlier blow-ups was underway. Wrong.

Lynn is definitely due for better days as his 6.55 ERA is far from his 4.07 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA. However, given that these numbers are not that great in general, it is fair to drop Lynn in most formats with a tough upcoming schedule.

@ Yankees

@ Dodgers

@ Mariners

vs Red Sox

@ Angels

While Lynn could flourish in a new environment if traded, it is not worth the beating of holding on these next few weeks.

Yu Darvish - San Diego Padres

Yu Darvish is not quite the Yu Darvish of old but still, we are not witnessing a 4.61 ERA starting pitcher every five days for the Padres. Darvish's xFIP and SIERA both sit below 4.00 as he is posting a solid 17.9% K-BB and similar velocity as last season where his ERA was a mere 3.10. Patience is necessary despite the mediocre ERA and WHIP which are the highest of his since 2018.

Unfortunately, his coming soft start at home against the Cubs is followed by a meeting in Coors against the Rockies who are quality opponents for right-handed pitchers. Darvish's schedule eases up once again afterward, making him a tight hold for managers.

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