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Frank Dyevoich breaks down NFL Wild Card weekend matchups and gives his top betting picks and advice.
The NFL regular season is over, so fantasy football has largely come to an end. The playoffs still offer many opportunities for betting with higher stakes on the line. This year, the playoffs will be busier than ever with the expanded field of 14 teams
Let's get into the six-game slate of Wild Card Weekend in the NFL to find the best bets.
NOTE: All spreads and lines are from Draft Kings Sportsbook, which are constantly changing to reflect the shifts in money wagered. Remember, the sportsbook's job is to keep the spreads and lines at a number that will attract bets on both sides.
Indianapolis Colts v. Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -6.5 at -106/ IND +6.5 at -114
Over/under: 51
Moneyline: BUF -286/ IND +245
I am not a fan of betting the spread on this game. The Bills are on fire, but the Colts' defense has been excellent all season. I expect the Bills to win this game as a home favorite (5-0 this season), but expecting them to win by a full touchdown is a little too high for my liking, and a Colts victory is certainly within the cards due to that ferocious defense.
The Bet: OVER 51
I love betting the total in this game. 51 is a pretty high number, but these two teams can easily get there. The Colts are 9-7 to the over this season and the Bills are an astounding 11-5. Over their last eight games, the Colts have not scored fewer than 26 points in any game, and they have gone over 28 points nine times on the season. Over the Bills' last eight games, they too have not scored fewer than 26 points in any game, and they have gone over 28 points nine times on the season. If we assume that the Colts and Bills will each match their lowest-scoring game over the last eight weeks, the game will go to overtime at 26-26, which is already over the total of 51.
I also love betting over the total because both teams are on fire, going 9-1 combined over their last five games, and averaging 30.6 points per game for the Colts and 40.4 points per game for the Bills. In my opinion, the only thing that can make this total stay under, besides an injury to the quarterbacks, is the Buffalo weather. Buffalo is an outside stadium subject to the elements. The city is freezing this time of year and is certainly no stranger to heavy snow. However, the forecast for the game on Saturday shows partly cloudy skies and virtually no wind, perfect weather for football. I predict this game will end with the Bills winning 34-30.
Player Props: Stefon Diggs over 7.5 receptions +120; Stefon Diggs over 90.5 receiving yards -112; Nyheim Hines over 3.5 receptions -112; Jonathan Taylor over 73.5 rushing yards; Josh Allen over 25.5 rushing yards.
I love the over on both of Diggs' player props. He is on a complete tear right now and finished the season catching seven or more receptions in every game since Week 10, and at least nine receptions in every game since Week 13. Last week, he only caught seven receptions, but he only played the first half of the game. He has also gone over his total of 90.5 receiving yards in eight of his last nine games. Last week, he finished with 76 receiving yards in only one half of football. Diggs will be fed early and often and he should go over both of these totals.
Nyheim Hines is a game-script play. What I mean by that is the Colts will not be able to get a comfortable lead and lean on the run game. This usually results in many pass-catching opportunities for Hines. He has caught at least four receptions in three out of his last four games, and the game he failed to reach four receptions was against the Texans where they leaned on Jonathan Taylor the majority of the game.
Speaking of Jonathan Taylor, he has been an absolute monster since Week 12, surpassing his total of 73.5 in every game. He has scored a TD in five straight games, and the Colts are going to have to give him plenty of carries in order to slow the game down and keep the ball away from Buffalo. Buffalo is giving up only 119 rush yards per game, but most of their opponents had to abandon the run in the second half. Buffalo is actually not very good at stopping the run, allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs, 25th in the league. Taylor should find plenty of running room on Saturday.
Lastly, Josh Allen has been one of the most impressive players in the NFL this season. He has taken monumental leaps from where he was this time last year, and his competitive drive is unwavering. He will do anything necessary to will his team to a victory on Saturday afternoon, and that means keeping the ball in his hands on crucial downs. The Buffalo rushing attack has been pitiful, so Josh Allen may be their best bet at production on the ground. He is elusive in the pocket and fast enough to outrun linebackers, and he will take off at a moment's notice if the play breaks down. He also has the wheels to gain 26 rushing yards on one play.
Los Angeles Rams v. Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -3 at -118/ LAR +3 at -104
Over/under: 42.5
Moneyline: SEA -175/ LAR +150
I am fading this game at all costs. The Rams Defense is too good to trust the Seahawks skill players to produce high numbers, but Russell Wilson is so good that it might not matter. Further, the status for Jared Goff is unknown, and if he does play, he is one week removed from thumb surgery so trusting him to produce would not be wise. The Seahawks and Rams always play close tight games, so I am not even comfortable betting the money line on this one because it could easily go either way. The total seems low at 42.5, but the two meetings in the regular season between these teams both stayed under this number.
Even the player props are too close to call. D.K. Metcalf will be locked down by Jalen Ramsey who held him to under 60 receiving yards in both regular-season games, and Tyler Lockett has been equally disappointing against the Rams. He also does not produce a ton of stats two weeks in a row, and last week he went for 12 receptions for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Expect a down week for Lockett. This is one game I will simply sit back and watch with nothing on the line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Washington Football Team
Spread: TB -8 at -109/ WFT +8 at -112
Over/under: 44.5
Moneyline: TB -375/ WFT +310
Playoff matchups tend to be closer than people think, so I am not a fan of playing favorites with a spread of -7 or higher. Here the Bucs would have to win by nine to cover the -8 spread, which is a tall order. The Football Team has an excellent defense and pass-rush which should routinely make Tom Brady uncomfortable and keep the game within reach, but no one expects them to actually win this game. That makes this game in particular ripe for a teaser, which I will toss out later. So at the current spread of -8, the smarter bet is to take the +8 with the Football Team, but the wisest bet is to tease it down.
The total of 44.5 is also a fade for me because these two teams have tough defenses, and the Football Team has a struggling offense. If the Bucs win 34-10, the number stayed under even though the game was a blowout. I can't trust that the Football team will be able to score enough points to get to a total of 45
Player Props: J.D. McKissic over 4.5 receptions; Logan Thomas over 3.5 receptions.
Taking the over on J.D. McKissic's receptions total has been like printing money against tough teams. Since Week 5, McKissic has failed to hit this number in only five games. Most notably is the fact that all five of those games were games that the Football Team won. In every losing game since Week 4, McKissic has had at least five receptions, and I expect them to lose this game.
That is also the reason I love Logan Thomas' receptions prop. The Football team is likely to be trailing and forced to throw more than they want, and Thomas is averaging nine targets per game over his last six games, and he caught at least four balls in five of them. It is going to be really hard for him to not catch four passes if he stays healthy for the whole game. Player props for the Buccaneers' receivers are not out yet because the status of Mike Evans is still unknown, but I am avoiding the rushing props at all costs due to the Football Teams stout run defense.
Baltimore Ravens v. Tennessee Titans
Spread: BAL -3.5 at -104/ TEN +3.5 at -118
Over/under: 54.5
Moneyline: BAL -180/ TEN +155
The Bet: Over 54.5
This is the highest total on the slate and I am still taking the over. The Ravens are averaging 37.2 points per game since Lamar Jackson came back from the Reserve/COVID list, and the offense is firing on all cylinders. The Titans are also setting scoreboards on fire, averaging 34.5 points per game over their last eight games. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout. Over the season the Titans are 12-4 to the over and are allowing an average of 29 points per game over their last eight games.
The Ravens Defense has been stingy lately, but I don't really give them credit since four of their last five games have come against the Jaguars, the Giants, the Bengals, and the Cowboys. Their last opponent against a playoff team was the Browns, whom they allowed 42 points to that game, and when they faced the Titans earlier in the season they gave up 30 points. Neither team will have trouble putting up points in this game and it should comfortably sail over 54.5 points. Weather will not be a factor in this one. I predict the Ravens will win 38-34.
Player Props: Lamar Jackson over 68.5 rush yards; J.K. Dobbins over 61.5 rush yards; Marquise Brown over 46.5 receiving yards; A.J. Brown over 67.5 receiving yards; Corey Davis over 59.5 receiving yards.
Lamar Jackson has returned to his MVP form since he has returned from dealing with COVID-19, and that means more running for the signal-caller. Over his last five games, Jackson is averaging 86 rush yards per game, and he has the wheels to pick up huge chunk plays at a time. He should hit this number by the third quarter. Similarly, J.K. Dobbins has been shredding opposing defenses for weeks now. Over his last nine games, he has had at least 11 carries in all but one (he left early with an injury), and he is averaging a staggering 6.0 yards per carry on the season. Simple math tells us that if he gets his floor of 11 carries, he should produce at least 66 rush yards. However, he is actually averaging 6.5 yards per carry over his last six games and he has scored a touchdown in each one. Dobbins has been nothing short of efficient and explosive and I like him to get 13-16 carries in this game.
Similarly to Dobbins. Marquise Brown has finally hit his stride. Hollywood Brown was looking like Lifetime Channel Brown for a majority of the season, but over his last six games, he is averaging seven targets for four receptions, 56 yards, and one touchdown per game. What's even more enticing is the Titans' defense has been as effective as a screen door on a submarine this season. Over their last six games, they have allowed the opposing team's WR1 to average 110.5 receiving yards per game, and they have been even worse over their last three games, allowing the opposing WR1 to average a staggering 140 receiving yards per game. If Brown does not surpass 46.5 receiving yards against this defense, I may contemplate giving up gambling entirely (I won't).
I also like the overs on A.J. Brown and Corey Davis' receiving yards props because Tannehill is going to have to throw a lot in this game to give the Titans a chance. Derrick Henry is a beast of a man, but all of the Ravens' defensive attention will be on him which should create plenty of throwing lanes for Tannehill and winnable mismatches for his receivers. I think Brown will surpass 100 receiving yards and Davis will fall between the 70s and 90s.
Chicago Bears v. New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -10 at -109/ TEN +10 at -112
Over/under: 47.5
Moneyline: NO -500/ CHI +400
I am also fading this game at all costs. The Saints Defense is one of the best in the league, allowing only 93.9 rush yards per game (4th) and 217 pass yards per game (5th). No one should have any confidence that the Bears will be able to move the ball in this one. Additionally, Drew Brees is still banged up from his 11 fractured ribs, and there is no telling how Alvin Kamara will perform after his battle with COVID-19, or if Michael Thomas will be able to play. Due to the uncertainties with the Saints and the Bears' expected difficulty in moving the ball, the wise move is to simply lay off betting this game.
In regard to player props, only Michael Thomas and David Montgomery have lines posted out of the skill position players. I can't trust Montgomery to be successful against this rush defense and I cant trust that if Michael Thomas plays that he will be at 100%. Accordingly, I am avoiding the player props in this game as well.
Cleveland Browns v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: PIT -6 at -108/ CLV +6 at -113
Over/under: 47.5
Moneyline: PIT -265/ CLV +220
The Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -6
The spread on this game is right in our sweet spot at -6. The Steelers should win this game rather easily given what we know. First, The Steelers almost beat the Browns last week with Mason Rudolph under center. This week, future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is back, and there is no question that he makes this team drastically more lethal. If that wasn't enough to side with the Steelers in this one, Browns Head Coach Kevin Stefanski will miss this game because he tested positive for COVID-19. That is a huge blow to the Browns as Stefanski is an elite play-caller, and a huge reason that the Browns were able to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Now they have to go into battle without their General. I think this will simply be too much to overcome and the Browns will fall to the Steelers by a score of 31-17.
Player props: Diontae Johnson over 6.5 receptions.
The Browns player props are not posted yet, but when they are I will update this article because I am likely going to take the over on Jarvis Landry's receptions and Nick Chubb's rushing yards. Landry has caught at least five passes in each of his last five games, the Browns are going to have to throw it early and often to keep up in this one. Chubb just ran for 108 yards against the Steelers last week and is averaging 96.4 yards per game in every game that he received at least 11 carries.
Now, the prop that is available that I am betting is Diontae Johnson over 6.5 receptions. Johnson is without a doubt Roethlisberger's favorite target. He is averaging 12.7 targets per game in every game that he has played in full with Roethlisberger, and he has at least eight receptions in seven out of those ten games. The Steelers have no running game to speak of and Roethlisberger is averaging 40.5 pass attempts per game. I like Johnson to see 12-14 targets and to catch between eight to 10 passes in this divisional matchup.
Teaser
The Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5/Seattle Seahawks +3
As I explained above, -8.5 is too many points to comfortably lay in the playoffs, but everyone expects the Bucs to win this game. The smart move is to tease this game down to -2.5 so the Bucs cover even if they win by a field goal. I also like the Seahawks to win the game because of the Russell Wilson X-factor, but the Seahawks and Rams games are always hard-fought and extremely close. Either team could win this game by a field goal so the smart move is to tease the Seahawks to +3 so if they lose by a field goal you don't lose the bet.
Parlay
The Bet: Buccaneers ML/Seahawks ML/Saints ML/ Steelers ML; Odds +232
A lot would have to go wrong for one of these teams to lose the game outright this weekend. The Buccaneers are playing a beat-up Football Team that might rotate between quarterback Alex Smith and backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke. They should win even if elite wide receiver Mike Evans does not play.
The Seahawks face a Rams team that has recently been beaten by the Jets and the 49ers. The Rams offense has struggled the past few weeks, and quarterback Jared Goff just had surgery on his thumb, making his status for the game up in the air. If Goff doesn't play, the Seahawks should win by double-digits, but even if he does, what kind of quality performance will he be able to give?
The Saints completely outmatch the Bears on every level. Bears' quarterback Mitch Trubisky has a history of being erratic and a poor decision-maker in big games, and this one is at the Superdome in New Orleans. The Saints should roll over the Bears pretty easily.
Lastly, the Steelers are rested and healthy and are facing a Browns team that will be without their head coach. The Steelers have the playoff experience, the talent, and the defense to make this a one-sided affair. Winning the game outright should be a walk in the park.
Good luck! And remember, bankroll management is the key to sustained gambling success.
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