2021 NCAA Tournament Busts to Avoid

March 18, 2021

Todd Salem looks at potential busts, over-seeded squads, and teams to avoid for the 2021 NCAA Tournament. These are highly-seed teams to be wary of in March Madness.

Last year was unlike any in the history of college basketball. Thanks to the pandemic, there was no NCAA Tournament. The entire end to the best finish in sports was canceled. This year, we have a tournament, but that's all anyone can be sure of. There is so much unknown, it makes trying to predict this year's outcomes rather frivolous.

We already saw multiple teams, including teams still invited to the Big Dance, eliminated from their respective conference tournaments due to positive COVID tests or contact tracing protocols. They straight-up forfeited, with their opponent advancing by default. That is a very real possibility for the main tourney as well. A team can still play with at least five healthy players, but even that would obviously put them at a stark disadvantage.

When trying to locate potential busts, over-seeded squads, and teams to avoid backing for the 2021 tournament, it's best to start right there. Here are the favorites (according to seed) to stay far away from in this year's bracket. Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets.

Kansas Jayhawks (3) and Virginia Cavaliers (4)

The tournament committee invited both teams into the tourney. They both had deserving resumes for sure. Yet as of the beginning of tournament week, we still don't know if either team will actually be allowed to play in round one. They each need seven consecutive days of negative tests to be eligible.

That seventh day won't come until the tournament is underway on Friday. (Virginia dropped out of the ACC Tournament and Kansas from the Big 12 tournament due to COVID protocol failures on Friday, March 12.) It is hard to pick a team to advance even one round when we don't know if it will be allowed to take the court.

Ohio State Buckeyes (2)

What a turn OSU's season took. Teams want to finish hot heading into March. Ohio State did the opposite, losing its last four regular-season games before making a run in the Big 10 Tournament. Teams want to be able to get stops. Ohio State did not do that, ranking 79th in adjusted defense, 198th in scoring defense, and 190th in turnover margin.

If they can't get consistent stops, teams at least need to keep opponents off the free-throw and three-point lines. The Buckeyes do none of that. They rank 338th in fouls committed and 208th in three-point defense. OSU will likely outscore Oral Roberts in round one since the Golden Eagles are also defensively challenged, but it is hard to feel good about an OSU bracket run this year.

Villanova Wildcats (5)

This team deserved a 5-seed based on its resume, but the available roster is no longer worthy of that distinction. Without Collin Gillespie, Nova loses its floor general, veteran leader, and its second-leading scorer. Gillespie gets everyone else going, and then when necessary, he can get his own, either from outside or taking opposing guards in the paint.

Gillespie is exactly what a team needs to advance in the tournament. Without him, this team will need to rework its entire offense. For a team that won with the offense this year (223rd nationally in field-goal defense), that is worrying indeed.

Florida Gators (7)

According to kenpom, the Gators are one of the lowest-ranked seed-favorites in the tourney. They went just 8-8 against quad 1 and quad 2 opponents this season. Florida wins with its rim protection, forcing turnovers, and hitting quality shots on the offensive end. Yet, it is one of the worst teams in the country in taking care of the basketball (182nd in turnover margin) and assist-to-turnover ratio (291st).

And they just so happen to be facing one of the peskiest opponents in the first round. Virginia Tech had an up-and-down year, but its ups were very...up. It beat then-3rd-ranked Villanova in November, 24th-ranked Clemson in December, 19th-ranked Duke and 8th-ranked Virginia in January. After that, the Hokies season was knocked off the rails by COVID cancellations, and they sputtered to the finish. If they get back on track after this layoff, Florida will be in trouble.

UConn Huskies (7)

Through the first month of the season, James Bouknight was a Player of the Year candidate. Then he hurt his elbow, missed more than a month of action, and didn't quite look the same upon returning. Sure, his numbers down the stretch were fine, but he wasn't having the same impact and didn't show the same burst, perhaps because of fatigue and conditioning (which did cause him to leave one game with cramps).

Bouknight was getting to the line 7.2 times per game before he got hurt. After returning, that dropped to 4.8 attempts per game. (The 1/5 game was not counted for either statistic.) The entire team goes only as far as he takes them offensively and otherwise relies on defense to win. They went just 7-7 in quad 1 and quad 2 games this year and don't find efficient points around the court. Connecticut is 221st in free throws, 90th in free-throw percentage, and 181st in three-point percentage nationally.

To make matters worse, the Huskies face the best double-digit seed in the tourney according to kenpom. With Maryland's equally effective defense, this should be a low-scoring matchup in round one; one that UConn will need Bouknight to take over. Fans shouldn't be sure that he can do it.

North Carolina Tar Heels (8)

Few teams have felt more inconsistent than UNC. The reason to worry about North Carolina is that a lot of that inconsistency has come from its guards and wings. Whether anecdotally true or statistically accurate, reliable, veteran guard play is known as a key to tournament success. UNC will not have that. The Heels also rarely played up to the best opponents, going 3-9 in quad 1 games.

The interior presence, the rebounding, the size are all scary. The nearly nonexistent three-point attack and careless play satiate some of that fear. Carolina is also set to face far and away the best seed-underdog in the tournament. Thanks to facing one of the hardest schedules in the nation and coming away with a top 15 defense and serviceable offense, Wisconsin is ranked as the 10th-best team in the country by adjusted efficiency margin. Even if that feels a bit too kind, the Badgers' strengths butt right up against UNC's worst weaknesses: lowest turnover rate in the nation, a high-octane three-point attack, while allowing only 64.3 points per game.

North Carolina's pedigree will not aid it in what looks to be one of the more fascinating round one matchups in terms of one team's strengths being the other's weaknesses.

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