2021 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Preview

After last year's contest was held with significant restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is returning to its normally scheduled live audience this July 4th. When asked what playing in front of fans meant for the sport, the eccentric event's emcee and Major League Eating executive George Shea said, "The Nathan's Famous contest is the crown jewel of the Fourth of July and stands as a beacon of freedom for all those who believe in American exceptionalism." This year's event was moved to a minor league baseball stadium, and the limited 7,000 available tickets were claimed quickly. According to the Major League Eating archives, the Nathan's Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest has been happening every Fourth of July in Coney Island since 1916. For the 20th consecutive year, ESPN will broadcast the contest on its family of networks, and are hoping to top the 1.9 million record-viewership from the 2011 contest. TV coverage will begin at noon ET on July 4, 2021.

This year's contest will still feature some of the world's greatest competitive eaters. This year will feature 13 women in the women's division competing for the bejeweled pink belt (women's division winner), while 18 men will battle for the esteemed Mustard Belt (men's division winner). The goal remains to eat as many hot dogs as possible in 10 minutes. If watching a field of men and women try to consume as many hot dogs as they can in 10 minutes doesn't excite you, the incredibly unique and personalized introductions by George Shea are worth the price of admission alone. While the event is all fun and games, Major League Eating will once again be making a donation of 100,000 hot dogs to the Food Bank of New York City in a generous gesture.

Bettors in certain states will be able to place wagers through DraftKings SportsBook. For fans outside of Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Jersey, DraftKings is also offering a free-to-play $25,000 prop contest for all players in all states.

Breaking Down the Women's Division

Miki Sudo captured the 2020 bejeweled Pepto-Bismol pink belt (Photo courtesy of Shea Communications and Major League Eating)

The Women's Division first opened competition in 2011, when Sonya Thomas took the crown with 40 hot dogs eaten. Thomas would go on to win the 2012 and 2013 competitions before being overtaken by Miki Sudo, who has won each of the past 7 contests but will not be competing in 2021 due to her pregnancy. Unconfirmed rumors have been swirling that Thomas might make a surprise reappearance in the absence of Sudo this year, but until that news might be confirmed, Michelle Lesco is this year's favorite.

This year's Women's Division features 13 competitors - all with previous experience in the competition. One particular matchup to keep a keen eye on will be high school art teacher Kristina Rovtar-Dunne against her mother Dr. Rene Rovtar, who is the superintendent of schools in the Montville, NJ school district and beat her daughter in the last head-to-head matchup in 2018. Without the dominant Sudo in this year's field, the all-time best performance would be 32 hot dogs and buns (HDBs) by Michelle Lesco in 2017.

The favorite - Michelle Lesco enters the competition as the 9th ranked competitive eater in the world by Major League Eating's metrics. Lesco's average performance of 26.5 HDBs pales in comparison to the usual leader Sudo, but puts her well ahead of the remaining field. Outside of the competitive eating circuit, Lesco is a middle school math teacher, and hopes to bring the bejeweled pink belt back to the classroom for a show-and-tell.

Sleepers

Sarah Rodriguez - A nationally qualified bodybuilder, Rodriguez has averaged 19.67 HDBs in her three appearances, including a personal-best of 23 in her most recent performance in 2019. After traveling across the country for this contest, Rodriguez will hope to build on her 2019 performance to bring the belt back to Seattle.

Sophia DeVita - The former Fairfield University women's soccer goalkeeper is the youngest woman in the field and is the 33rd ranked competitive eater in the world. While her four-contest average of 15.38 HDBs leaves some room for improvement, DeVita's youth might give her an edge in a competition full of experienced eaters.

Larell Marie Mele - The 30th ranked competitive eater in the world placed second last year downing 18 HDBs. With 10 appearances under her belt, Mele is the most experienced eater in the field and carries a consistently strong 17.3 HDBs average. While Mele struggles to put up elite results, her consistency and unbroken streak of appearing in every Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest since the Women's Division was instituted a decade ago is impressive.

Breaking Down the Men's Division

13-time champion Joey "Jaws" Chestnut (Photo courtesy of Shea Communications and Major League Eating)

Similarly to the Women's Division, the Men have seen two dominant eaters dominate the competition for the better part of the 21st Century. Joey "Jaws" Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi have combined for 20 Mustard Belt championships. While Kobayashi has been in a contract dispute with MLE since 2009 and will not compete once again, Chestnut is seeking his record 14th win this year. Even with the previous competitor to beat him (Matt Stonie) back in the field this year, the Mustard Belt should return to Chestnut - the only matter to determine is by how many dogs.

This year's Men's Division features eighteen competitors, including only two new eaters this year. One notable omission from this year's field is the 6-foot-5, 4oo pound Eric "Badlands" Booker, who released this promotional rap video with George Shea in advance of the contest. Booker had been a staple in this event nearly every year since his 1997 entry to the competitive eating circuit, but it seems like he will continue to be involved in the festivities even if he doesn't join the contest itself.

The favorite - Joey "Jaws" Chestnut has won 13 of the last 14 competitions and is the unquestioned top-ranked competitive eater in the world. who weighs in at 6-foot-1, 230 pounds, is the #1 ranked competitive eater in the world by the MLE. Chestnut holds 50 world records in various competitive eating categories, including Krystal hamburgers (103 in 8 minutes), grilled cheese sandwiches (47 in 10 minutes), and hot dogs (75 in 10 minutes, set last year). Chestnut has competed in 16 contests, and his average hot dogs eaten is a staggering 63.3 per 10 minutes. Since 2015, which was the last year that Chestnut lost the competition, he has consumed at least 70 HDBs every year, breaking his own world record four times. Chestnut's dominance is unlikely to change anytime soon as the emcee Shea said when introducing Chestnut in 2012, "he has God's username and password, and he does with it what he chooses!"

Sleepers

Darron Breeden - Breeden, who is the third-ranked competitive eater in the world, earned second place in last year's contest with 42 HBDs, a mere 33 behind the leader. The Virginia native and motorcycle enthusiast has averaged 43.4 HBDs per event, and hopes to build on last year's momentum. Breeden holds the world record for Cheese Curd Eating champion (5 pounds and 2 ounces in 6 minutes) and will have an exciting contest with Esper for 2nd place.

Nick Wehry - Wehry, the sixth ranked professional eater in the world, isn't even the best eater in his own home. His fiancé, Miki Sudo, is the seven-time winner of the Women's Division. Wehry has competed three times in the annual 4th of July hot dog eating contest, and has seen improvement in each appearance - culminating with 39.5 HBDs and a third place finish last year.

Gideon Oji - Originally hailing from Zaria, Nigeria, Oji is a towering presence on the podium at 6-foot-9. With a background as a collegiate basketball center (Clayton State College), Gideon's athleticism and youth should provide him plenty of room to grow. The World Kale Eating Champion (25.5 16-oz kale salads in 8 minutes) is the seventh ranked competitive eater in the world and has averaged 32.1 HBDs per competition.

Steve Hammond - As one of the two first-time competitors in the Men's Division, expectations for Hammond are understandably low. However, the 33-year old Washington state native once ate 59 tamales in 10 minutes, downed 5.1 pounds of St. Elmo shrimp cocktail in 8 minutes, and might be the dark horse needed to bring Chestnut's reign to an end.

Odds

Picking an outright winner in this contest would be futile, as Michelle Lesco (-1000) and Joey Chestnut (-3335) are overwhelming favorites. Picking any other participant for the men's division (+900) doesn't offer enough value considering the sheer distance between the Chestnut and the rest of the competition. A $100 parlay of Lesco and Chestnut would pay out $13, so its probably best to look elsewhere for a worthwhile wager.

Joey Chestnut's over/under is set at 73.5 hot dogs. In last year's indoors controlled environment, Chestnut downed a record 75 hot dogs.

Predictions

The Women's Division Field (vs. Michelle Lesco) +500

Nick Wehry to defeat Gideon Oji (-140)

Joey Chestnut over 9.5 hot dogs eaten in the first minute (-250)