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Los Angeles Angels first baseman Jared Walsh is an undervalued draft target and fantasy baseball sleeper for 2021. Jamie Steed evaluates Walsh's value based on current ADP.
Jared Walsh burst onto the Minor League scene in 2019 after hitting 36 homers in 98 games and received a call up to the Angels. Prior to that, Walsh had 49 homers in 361 Minor League games so his power outburst came as a surprise.
Walsh didn't have a great start to his MLB career after his 2019 call-up with a .203/.276/.329 slash line and one solitary homer in 34 games (87 plate appearances). His 2020 numbers were much better with a .293/.324/.646 line and nine homers in 32 games.
So what can we expect from Walsh heading into the 2021 season and is he a worthwhile addition to your fantasy roster given the relatively low draft capital you'll need to use to grab him?
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ADP & Projections
Walsh has an ADP of ~194 in early drafts and is the 23rd first base eligible player being taken. If we look at the Expected Draft Values (EDV) by RotoBaller's very own Nick Mariano, a player drafted at 194 is expected to have a .246 batting average, 29 homers, 69 runs, 74 RBI and four steals. How does that compare to his projections? Depending on the projection you look at, Walsh is expected to play between 110-124 games, hit 21-26 homers and hit for an average of .242-.255. The biggest variant in his projections is his RBI total which is as low as 64 and has a high projection of 84.
Given these projections, the ADP on Walsh is probably more bullish than it should be. Whilst that's true, the number of games played being projected is a bit on the low side which is understandable given the way they model and Walsh's lack of much MLB experience.
Underlying numbers
Although we're dealing with a very small sample size for Walsh in 2020, it can't be dismissed. You may see his .293 batting average and think his success was down to good fortune, but Walsh actually had a .256 BABIP. That isn't a true reflection of luck (good or bad) but we can also compare his actual stats to expected stats according to Statcast.
| Stat | Actual | Expected |
| AVG | .293 | .268 |
| SLG | .646 | .527 |
| WOBA | .386 | .337 |
It's fair to expect regression on last year's actual numbers but not to fall off a cliff. Of all hitters with at least 100 plate appearances in 2020, only Juan Soto (.695) had a higher slugging percentage (SLG) and his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .527 was higher than the actual SLG of Trevor Story (.519), Michael Conforto (.515), Bo Bichette (.512) and Kyle Tucker (.512), all of whom are going inside the first 80 picks in drafts.
Arguably the biggest improvement Walsh made in 2020 was to lower his strikeout rate (K%) from 40.2% in 2019 to 13.9%. If we look at his plate discipline numbers, we will see the factors which led to this.
| Plate Discipline | 2019 | 2020 | Change |
| O-Swing% | 34.8% | 35.7% | + 0.9% |
| Z-Swing% | 61.4% | 69.9% | + 8.5% |
| O-Contact% | 63.0% | 70.4% | + 7.4% |
| Z-Contact% | 73.2% | 85.3% | + 12.1% |
| SwStr% | 14.2% | 10.4% | - 2.8% |
The "O" numbers are pitches outside the strike zone while the "Z" numbers are pitches inside the zone. What we can see is Walsh only slightly swung at more pitches outside of the zone (O-Swing%) but made considerably more contact with pitches outside of the zone (O-Contact%). Walsh was also more aggressive with swinging at pitches inside the zone (Z-Swing%) and that helped him make more contact on those pitches (Z-Contact%). The ability to 'stay alive' and foul of pitches will give Walsh more chances to eventually put a ball in play, or draw a walk.
These are positive signs of Walsh adapting to Major League pitching. The total rate of swinging strikes (SwStr%) declined in 2020 also. It's not unexpected for rookies to improve their pitch recognition and as a result their plate discipline as they gain experience and that's exactly what Walsh displayed last year.
2021 Expectations
As mentioned, the number of games played being projected for Walsh does seem on the low side. Part of why Walsh was called up was to improve the Angels defense at first base. Walsh ended up hitting in the second spot of the lineup in the final 15 games of last year which emphasizes the faith the Angels have in the left-hand slugger. As the Angels no.2 hitter, hitting ahead of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon alone requires serious consideration for rostering a player in fantasy.
If we consider the games played projections to be low and Walsh actually plays 143 games, that's a 30% increase on projections. That translates the statistical projections into ~28-30 homers, and in the region of 80-88 runs and RBI. Walsh's projected batting average might also be a bit low based on a lack of a track record in the Majors. A look at his Minor League slash lines suggests he can hit for better than projected. Across all levels, Walsh hit .301/.375/.538 (462 games) and at Triple-A, he hit .307/.396/.620 (145 games). Given Walsh had an xBA of .268 last year, a batting average north of .260 is perfectly plausible.
Given everything we know, Walsh could easily have a season with a .260 average, 30 homers, 79 runs, and 80 RBI. If he did that, his EDV would be 114 representing 80 picks better value than his actual ADP.
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