FAAB Bidding - Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets

September 29, 2021

Nick Mariano's fantasy football waiver wire FAAB bidding recommendations for Week 4 (2021) -- how many FAAB dollars (free agent budget) to spend on waivers.

Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). We'll get to the action in a bit, but first I am compelled to speak on something more serious.

It is admittedly difficult to focus on the games as the fantasy football community mourns the loss of Mike Tagliere, but I think he would've wanted us to enjoy Mike Williams' going off. I had the pleasure of meeting Tags and he spoke like we were old friends. Just a warm, charismatic guy who was respected by all yet he'd never make you feel as though he was more important in the space than you. He always had time for people and genuinely loved our silly little game, second only to his loving wife and family. If you can help with supporting the Tagliere family in this tragic time then here is the link for their GoFundMe.

Alas, we must play on. As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override. It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Will you be an aggressor early, looking to score those league-winners as they emerge? Or do you hold onto more funds in 2021 given the enhanced uncertainty with player availability? Whatever your attitude, here's my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 4.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold (QB, CAR) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

22% rostered

Darnold didn't have any passing touchdowns in Week 3's victory over Houston, but the Texans didn't force much action and ol' Sammy saved the scores for his legs. The first-year Panther brought two touchdowns to the house with his own two feet while everyone's drawn to the next man up behind Christian McCaffrey. Maybe it is Darnold RB1 szn (I'm kidding...szn should automatically imply sarcasm). Week 4 at Dallas may be loud, but the dome environment will be a good spot for Darnold to go for his third consecutive 300-yard performance.

It’s amazing how different Sam Darnold looks with coaching, blocking and talent around him. #ThursdayNightFootball

— shannon sharpe (@ShannonSharpe) September 24, 2021

Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

6% rostered

Heinicke was a top-10 play in Week 3 despite the rough matchup with Buffalo. He only completed 14 passes (of 24 attempts), but he totaled 212 yards, two passing touchdowns and 21 ground yards with a rushing TD to boot. Two interceptions held Washington back, but the results were there for us as fantasy managers. He's got quiet mobility and isn't afraid to sling it. With Buffalo out of the way, now Heinicke has matchups versus Atlanta, New Orleans, Kansas City, and Green Bay in the following weeks. Cha-ching.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) - FAB Bid: 20-30%
Royce Freeman (RB, CAR) - FAB Bid: 2-4%

25% rostered / 2% rostered

Hubbard stepped into 14 touches and 79 total yards after Christian McCaffrey pulled up with a hamstring injury. CMC was almost instantly ruled out for the game and Hubbard got the lion’s share over Freeman (six touches for 25 yards). At this point, I’m prepared for CMC to miss Weeks 4 and 5, but won’t be shocked if he returns earlier. How badly do you want Hubbard for a date against Dallas? Freeman is more of a stash given his 10 snaps to Hubbard’s 36. It’s hard to make that start call.

I understand a lot of people don’t think Chuba Hubbard is very good, but he’s played every snap since Christian McCaffrey went down, similarly to what we saw in the preseason

It doesn’t matter what we think, it matters that he’s given a CMC-type workload

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 24, 2021

Peyton Barber (RB, LV) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

6% rostered

Barber put the Raiders on his back against Miami, totaling 26 touches for 142 yards and a lunging score in the 31-28 victory. It was supposed to be a revenge game for Kenyan Drake, but he only saw half the workload of Barber. If Josh Jacobs is out again for Week 4’s date with the Chargers’ poor run D, then Barber is a solid flex play in 12-team formats.

Giovani Bernard (RB, TB) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

16% rostered

The Buccaneers found themselves trailing for much of Week 3, which had Giovani Bernard channel his truest James White form. The Bucs would lose, but Gio had nine catches for 51 yards and a touchdown. His 10 targets were tied with Mike Evans for the team lead. The bad news is that Tampa surely won’t be in this gamescript often, especially in Week 4 against Tom Brady’s hapless exes. Bernard also hurt his left knee and may be limited with a bone bruise or hyperextension. Monitor the situation and stash in PPR.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

26% rostered

Sanders made the most of his six targets on Sunday, hauling in five of them for 94 yards and two TD dances. Josh Allen finally showed his ceiling just in time to rope us in for a likely Week 4 pummeling of the Texans defense. Perhaps it’ll be Stefon Diggs’ get-right moment to re-establish his top-five WR status, but Sanders, Gabriel Davis, Cole Beasley, and company are all beneficiaries.

Tim Patrick (WR, DEN) - FAB Bid: 5-10%

22% rostered

You may be surprised to learn Patrick’s five targets/receptions were tied with Courtland Sutton for the team lead. Denver didn’t need much to topple the Jets in a 26-0 laugher and Patrick’s five looks yielded 98 yards compared to Sutton’s 37. With a TD or 90-plus yards in each of Denver’s first three games, Patrick is making the most of modest volume. Said volume may inch higher as K.J. Hamler's torn ACL opens up more work for a team still absorbing the injury to Jerry Jeudy.

Bryan Edwards (WR, LV) - FAB Bid: 3-5%
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

17% rostered / 11% rostered

Edwards and Renfrow were two of the six Raiders to see at least five targets in Week 3. This volume won’t go around each week but it’s a tad silly to see Henry Ruggs III up at 50% rostered while Edwards had 89 yards and Renfrow put up a 5-77-1 line at roughly one-third the rostered rate. 

Renfrow has a more stable range of outcomes, seeing at least six looks with a minimum of five receptions in each of the first three games. Edwards has topped 80 yards in two games and the other saw his best plays negated by penalties. Just keep an open mind and don’t get anchored by rostered rates.

A.J. Green (WR, ARI) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

15% rostered

Green is a recognizable name who notched 112 yards in Week 3, which demands a blurb here. DeAndre Hopkins’ rib injury clearly limited his run and AJG got to beat up on Jacksonville’s backup DBs as a result. This won’t be the case in Week 4 against the Rams, though that should be a high-scoring affair. If Hopkins is healthy, then Green, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore all form a roulette wheel behind him for action. Act appropriately.

DeSean Jackson (WR, LAR) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

2% rostered

Even at nearly 35 years old, D-Jax can still burn most NFL defenders and waltz his way to the endzone. His 120-yard day was highlighted by a 75-yard score but he only has five total receptions on the season. It’s a deep-league dart throw, but at least we’re relying on Matthew Stafford’s arm to throw it. Van Jefferson has 12 targets to Jackson’s 7 behind Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee.

Others to consider:

James Washington (WR, PIT) - FAB Bid: 0-1% - 1% rostered
Josh Gordon (WR, KC) - FAB Bid: 0-1% - 2% rostered
Anthony Miller (WR, HOU) - FAB Bid: 0-1% - 0% rostered
Kendrick Bourne (WR, NE) - FAB Bid: 0-1% - 0% rostered
Collin Johnson (WR, NYG) - FAB Bid: 0-1% - 0% rostered

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL) - FAB Bid: 4-5%

3% rostered

Schultz separated from Blake Jarwin with six catches for 70 yards and two scores on Monday night. Jarwin had 14 yards on two catches and hasn't topped four targets in any of Dallas' first three games while Schultz has hit the six-target mark twice. It's clear that the Cowboys are using Schultz as the primary replacement for Michael Gallup rather than Cedrick Wilson, though Schultz only had 52 snaps to Jarwin's 43. Production when given an opportunity creates the bottom line and Schultz is cashing in. I'm not chasing this as a weekly top-10 lock, but those growing impatient at the position could do worse than targeting the primary TE in this potent Cowboys attack.

Tyler Conklin (TE, MIN) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

4% rostered

It was Conklin’s week to be the third receiving option for Kirk Cousins rather than K.J. Osborn. After seeing just four targets in each of Minnesota’s first two games, that mark doubled to eight looks for a 7-70-1 receiving line. It’s unlikely that Conklin (or Osborn) ever carves out a consistent role behind the star WR duo, but the bar for TE is low enough where Conklin must at least be watched.

#Vikings got a great game out of TE Tyler Conklin, who had seven catches for 70 yards while playing 54 of 75 snaps. No other Vikings TE has a catch this season and no others were targeted Sunday Ben Ellefson, who is well regarded for blocking, played 30 snaps and Chris Herndon 12

— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) September 27, 2021

Dawson Knox (TE, BUF) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

9% rostered

With at least 40 yards or a TD in each of his first two games, Knox checked both of those boxes in Buffalo’s Week 3 win. It’s a low ceiling, but Knox has great matchups against Houston, Kansas City, and Tennessee on tap before the Week 7 bye.

Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

8% rostered

Freiermuth continues to work ahead of Eric Ebron – who has one catch in 2021 and none in Weeks 2 or 3. The rookie scored his first NFL TD on Sunday and there may be more to come very soon considering both Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are injured. It’s hard to project Najee Harris and Chase Claypool getting an insane 34 targets between the two moving forward.

Dan Arnold (TE, JAC) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

3% rostered

Arnold was dealt to the Jaguars on Monday morning, ending the Darnold-to-Arnold memes. Sorry, everyone. Jacksonville gets stuck in pass-happy negative gamescripts often and Arnold gives them a receiving TE with James O’Shaughnessy on the injured reserve. The Jags have an impressive WR trio, but we saw O’Shaughnessy secure eight targets in Week 1, so there’s room in the gameplan for Arnold to offer fringe top-12 weeks.

Tommy Tremble (TE, CAR) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

0% rostered

Tremble scored his first NFL touchdown on Thursday, which surely made Carolina feel secure enough to trade Arnold. Those in deep waters will want to eye Tremble and see what his workload amounts to as a starter. This is more of a monitor situation rather than proactively chasing the Notre Dame alum, but games without CMC should mean more passing.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

New Orleans is available in roughly half of Yahoo leagues and gets a home date against the turnover-prone Daniel Jones in Week 4.

Tennessee Titans Defense (at NYJ) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

14% rostered

The Titans defense is not good, but the Jets offense is atrocious. I’d even think about Jacksonville’s D against the Jets at this point. Zach Wilson looks overmatched and the gameplan isn’t giving him enough easy progressions to work through. Without a star RB to lean on, Wilson is simply pushing through things along the development curve.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense (vs. JAX) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

2% rostered

Much like targeting the Jets, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are also looking like a streaming snack. The Bengals also have at least three sacks in each of their first three games, generating four turnovers in that span while holding offenses to an average of 16 points per game. Pretty good momentum going into a plus matchup! All of that being said, Week 5’s date with the Packers is no good, but they do face the Lions in Week 6.

Chicago Bears Defense (vs. DET) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

28% rostered

The Bears had a rough Week 1 against the Rams, but they’ve recorded five sacks in each of their last two games (v. CIN, @CLE) and now get Jared Goff and the Lions. We like Detroit for their garbage-time potential, but that also means long dropbacks and risky throws for a defense that can afford some risk. Even if Matt Nagy can’t orchestrate an offense geared towards Justin Fields’ skill set, the defense should be enough for a win in Week 4.

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