2020 K% Decreases: Buy, Sell, or Hold

August 18, 2020

Nicklaus Gaut analyzes differences in strikeout rates since last season using plate-discipline metrics and Statcast data to determine if fantasy baseball managers should buy, sell, or hold these players.

Faster than most stats, the strikeout rate for batters stabilizes quickly. While not a guarantee of the future, once we have 60 plate appearances we can start making some judgments on where batters are at in their plate discipline and what we might expect going forward.

Last week, we took a look at some of the biggest increases in strikeout rates, to see who had decided to go back to school and get their doctorates in whiffery. But today we'll head to the optimistic flip side, taking a closer look at some batters who've crossed the 60 PA threshold while making big cuts to their whiffiness.

We'll put a closer eye on a few of these K-rate droppers and see how you should be valuing their stocks for the rest of the season. We're a third of the way through the season so we're getting to the point where you need to decide who to hold, who to buy, and who you might want to ship off. Let's get to it.

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Biggest Decreases in Strikeout Rate

Just as an increase in strikeout rate doesn't necessarily mean a decrease in production, neither does fewer strikeouts guarantee more success. Here are the top-40 decreases in strikeout-rate, along with their 2019 and 2020 wOBA.

Joey Votto (1B, CIN)

2020: 8.1% K% (12.1-pt decrease)

So Joey Votto has just stopped striking out? Not only is his 8.1% K% a career-low, but it's his low mark by almost four percentage points. He's also back up to a more Votto-esque 18.9% walk-rate after posting a 12.5% BB% in 2019. And I don't know if anyone has noticed but Votto has a 53.7% Pull% according to Statcast batted-ball data; his previous high was a 35.8% Pull%. Might want to keep that up, if the results thus far are any indicator:

Votto's fantasy stats don't jump off the page (3 HR, 10 R, 8 RBI) and a .233 AVG is a real drag. But a .284 xBA and the aforementioned batted-ball and plate-discipline data make me think that Votto has some leveling out coming his way. I'm holding if I have him and if I don't I might go knocking on some of his owner's doors. The price shouldn't be onerous, especially considering what the upside for 40 games is.

Verdict: Hold/Buy

Trevor Story (SS, COL)

2020: 14.6% (11.9-pt decrease)

If this is the next evolution in Trevor Story's plate-discipline, then we're all in big, big trouble. Story had over a 30% K% in his first two seasons and the previous years he's been down to around a 26% K%. The drops in strikeout-rate have been accompanied by drops in his swinging-strike rates, going from a 13% average in 2016-17, to below 12% the previous two seasons. This year Story has a 7.7% SwStr% and has also dropped his chase-rate almost three points while dramatically increasing his contact on balls outside the zone, going from 54.1% to 67.1%.

Story also isn't hitting anything on the ground either, going from a 33.8% GB% in 2019 to a 23.6% GB% this season, with much of the change being transferred to a near seven-point increase in fly balls. I'm no scientist but more fly balls at Coors tend to be a good idea.

It also helps that Story has totally stepped up his breaking-ball game. On the 98 breaking balls that Story has seen in 2020, he has a .691 wOBA, .544 xwOBA, with a .438 AVG that's backed by a .354 xBA. He just absolutely murdering the ball and nothing has been fooling him. Not balls outside, not breakers, and definitely not anything fast or in the zone. Story is locked-in, in his prime, and it's a shame we're only going to see 60 games of it. Somewhere Nick Mariano weeps tears of joy, bittersweet though they may be.

You're probably not getting Story in trade without backing up the truck but it never hurts to try feeling out any owner that has a shortstop surplus and may want to cash in early. And if I have Story, he's not going anywhere unless I get bowled over and have a surplus at the position.

Verdict: Hold/Good luck buying

Kyle Lewis (OF, SEA)

2020: 27.4% K% (11.3-point decrease)

Wow. Kyle Lewis has actually made dramatic gains in his strikeout-rate and overall plate-discipline. Lewis showed off his boom-stick in 2019, hitting six home runs in just 75 PA. It came with a 38.7% K% and 17.7 SwStr%, however, rates that have dropped to 27.4% and 12.7% in 2020. Still high but I'm not sure how much more improvement you can ask for after his performance in 2019. He's swinging less overall but most of the change comes from a nearly 11-point drop in his chase rate.

He's not hitting home runs at the rate he did in 2019 (1 HR every 13 PA in 2019 vs. every 24 PA in 2020) and his average exit velocity is down over 4 mph. Did Lewis forget how to hit the ball hard or is he trying to improve his pitch selection and selling out less in order to make more contact? I also find it encouraging that his performance on breaking balls has greatly improved, going from a .341 xwOBA in 2019, to a .442 wOBA this season - and from a .254 xwOBA to a .404 xwOBA.

The power may be down from last year but I don't think it really went anywhere. And besides, he still has four home runs, 15 RBI, and 13 runs scored, along with a shiny .325 AVG. I'm not going to overpay for Lewis but if I can get him for the price of an OF 4/5 then I'd be trying to make a move. Because his type of prodigious power can come on suddenly (and in big bursts) and a five home runs in two weeks kind of outburst is just the kind of thing to carry your team for a minute of this short season.

Verdict: Buy

Bryce Harper (OF, WAS)

2020: 15.7% K% (10.4-pt decrease)

Sometimes I like to go to the park and feed the pigeons, sitting on a bench and thinking quaint things, like the debate over who should get more money between Harper and Manny Machado. I enjoy these simple things. The problem with Harper is that he was just too damn good in 2015 and gets labeled as underachieving every time he doesn't replicate it. People talk about 2019 like it was a bust but he had 35 home runs, 114 RBI and 98 runs scored, with 15 stolen bases! A .260 AVG wasn't anything to write home about but it's also not .230 and Harper was a major contributor in every other category.

Well, everyone that has damned Harper for not repeating 2015 are hopefully silent now. The power is down slightly but he's on a batting-average heater like he's never been on before, with a .364 AVG and .338 xBA. His average exit velocity is down but he's seen a bump in his barrels for the third year in a row, going from a 14.8% Brl% to a 17.8 Brl% this season.

Much like Story, you can try to trade for Harper but his owners likely aren't biting. I know I wouldn't be. He's got a hot stick and gives you elite production everywhere, batting in the middle of a dangerous lineup at a bandbox of a stadium. And it looks like he's still running, kicking in two stolen bases so far and pacing right about where he's been the past two seasons. In a year when no one's running, every last bag you can get is going to help.

Verdict: Hold/Sure, why not trying buying?

Other Notables

I was wrong about Brandon Lowe, thinking that the slight splits issues he showed in 2019 would be enough to keep him from playing full-time. It's those tricky Rays and their dastardly ways that make me always hesitant to project their hitters to play every day if there's even a hint of handedness issues. But I was wrong. Lowe has not only improved on his .231 AVG versus lefties last year but is hitting them better than right-handers, with a .400 AVG against LHP, versus a .309 AVG against RHP.  He also has 89 PA and has played in 22 of the Rays 23 games. So very wrong.

Nolan Arenado has one of the biggest drops in strikeout rates but it comes with a 73-pt drop in wOBA. A .319 wOBA is not what you were counting on when you drafted Arenado and that's after he hit two home runs on Sunday night. But six home runs on the year isn't anything to sneeze at, even with a .244 AVG, but his .276 xBA and .349 xwOBA are a lot more palatable.

Let's pour one out for Bo Bichette, who suffered a knee sprain on Sunday and could be shelved until mid-September. That's a real shame as Bichette had really begun to burn hot lately, hitting home runs in four straight games prior to the injury, along with two stolen bases, eight RBI, and seven runs scored.

Almost Qualified

Giancarlo Stanton pulled a Kansas City shuffle, blowing out the hamstring while we were all focused on his calf of glass. Tricky, tricky. As much as we expect the inevitable injury to Mr. Glass, it was a particular bummer this season, with Stanton turning back the strikeout clock like it was 2017 and mashing three taters in his first 54 PA.

Looking like two beer league MVPs, Dan Vogelbach and Rowdy Tellez have both made substantial cuts to their departments of whiffery. Maybe this wasn't the best thing in Vogelbach's case considering his wOBA has dropped almost 100-points since last year and he has only two home runs with a .108 AVG. Tellez, on the other hand, is playing in the "A" Flight league compared to Vogelbach, with three home runs and a .319 wOBA. Neither is very useful in most leagues unless your league uses chugging ability as a scored category.

Did I pull down the list until Rougned Odor was included, even though he had a minimal decrease, just so Eric Samulski and I can take victory laps on his "improved" plate-discipline? No comment. Sure he has a .151 AVG, with two home runs and no stolen bases; but how about that improved K-rate, huh? Less than 30%!

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