2020 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Preview

On July 4th every year, thousands of fans crowd Coney Island for the annual Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Major League Eating (MLE) announced significant changes to this year's event, but the show will go on. For the 18 consecutive years, ESPN will broadcast the contest on its family of networks, and viewership is expected to top the 1.9 million record-viewership from the 2011 contest. TV coverage will begin at noon ET on July 4, 2020.

This year's contest will still feature some of the world's greatest competitive eaters, albeit in a different setting. There will be no fans, and the contest will be held indoors for the first time since its inception. In a typical year, 15 to 20 contestants gather on the stage for the chance at the Mustard Belt (men's winner) or the bejeweled pink belt (women's winner). This year, there will be only 6 competitors in the men's division, and 5 competitors in the women's division. The goal remains to eat as many hot dogs as possible in 10 minutes.

Bettors in certain states will be able to place wagers through DraftKings SportsBook. For fans outside of Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Jersey, DraftKings is also offering a free-to-play $25,000 prop contest for all players in all states.

Breaking Down the Women's Division

6-time champion Miki Sudo (Photo courtesy of Shea Communications and Major League Eating)

The Women's Division first opened competition in 2011, when Sonya Thomas took the crown with 40 hot dogs eaten. Thomas would go on to win the 2012 and 2013 competition,s before being overtaken by Miki Sudo, a newcomer to the competitive eating circle. Sudo has won each of the past 6 contests and is looking to continue her dominance of the sport.

Miki Sudo - The 5-foot-7 native of Torrington, Connecticut has won all 6 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contests that she has competed in, is the #6 ranked eater in the world, and is the #1 ranked female eater in the world. Her personal best performance was in the 2017 competition when she consumed 41 hot dogs. Last year was her weakest performance in the contest (31), and she still managed to win by almost 5 hot dogs. Sudo is the overwhelming favorite, and for good reason.

Larell Marie Mele - Mele is the 30th ranked eater in the world, and is coming off a 5th place finish in last year's event (18). Mele is not new to the circuit, as this will be her 9th hot dog eating contest. Her best performance in a contest was 21.25, slightly above her 9-contest average of 17.22 hot dogs per contest.

Katie Prettyman - The 36-year old Washington state native is ranked #36 in the world by the MLE rankings. This will be her 3rd appearance in the hot dog eating contest, where she recorded a personal-best 12.5 hot dogs eaten last year's 10-minute contest.

Julie Goldberg - This will be Baruch College history professor's 2nd appearance in the annual contest. Goldberg only ate 7 hot dogs in last year's contest, but since has been training under the guidance of longtime MLE legend Crazy Legs Conti, which she hopes will pay off in this year's contest.

Dr. Rene Rovtar - Dr. Rovtar is a New Jersey superintendent by day and a competitive eater on the weekends. She has competed in 3 contests and is the long-shot with an average of 7 hot dogs consumed. While Rovtar may not be a top-grade competitive eater, she has plenty to be proud of as she was awarded the Morris County Superintendent of the Year award for the 2016-2017 school year.

Breaking Down the Men's Division

12-time champion Joey Chestnut (Photo courtesy of Shea Communications and Major League Eating)

Similarly to the Women's Division, the Men have seen two dominant eaters dominate the competition for the better part of the 21st Century. Joey "Jaws" Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi have combined for 18 Mustard Belt championships. While Kobayashi has been in a contract dispute with MLE since 2011 and will not compete, Chestnut is seeking his 13th win this year. With the absence of 2015 champion Matt Stonie (due to New York quarantine laws from coming out of state), the Mustard Belt should return to Chestnut - the only matter to determine is by how many dogs.

Joey "Jaws" Chestnut - Chesnut, who weighs in at 6-foot-1, 230 pounds, is the #1 ranked competitive eater in the world by the MLE. Chestnut holds 56 world records in various competitive eating categories, including Twinkies (121 in 6 minutes), hard-boiled eggs (141 in 8 minutes), and hot dogs (74). Chestnut has competed in 15 contests, and his average hot dogs eaten is a staggering 62.5 per 10 minutes. In the lead-up to the event, Chestnut has said in interviews that he is going for the world record and "could push 80." If you look at Chesnut's interviews in the lead-up to last year's event, these are some of the same promotional things he was out there saying. Being in an air-conditioned environment should help, but without the energy of the fans to feed off, it will be difficult for "Jaws" to break his world record of 74.

Geoffrey Esper - Esper is a physics teacher who holds the record as the world Pizza Eating Champion, with 83 slices consumed in 10 minutes. He is the #2 ranked eater in the world, and arguably Chestnut's top competition. Esper's 5-contest average of 39.9 hot dogs pales in comparison to Chestnut, but he hopes he can build off of last year's 47 hot dogs, a personal best.

Darron Breeden - The 31-year old Breeden is the #4 ranked competitive eater and placed 2nd in the 2019 contest with 50 hot dogs. Breeden holds the world record for Cheese Curd Eating champion (5 pounds and 2 ounces in 6 minutes) and will have an exciting contest with Esper for 2nd place.

Nick Wehry - Wehry, the #8 ranked professional eater in the world, isn't even the best eater in his own home. His girlfriend, Miki Sudo, is the overwhelming favorite to win her 7th championship. Wehry has competed twice in the annual 4th of July hot dog eating contest, with an average of 33.5 hot dogs eaten.

George Chiger - Chiger, who stands at 6-foot-6 and weighs in at a burly 340 pounds is a physically imposing eater who MLE co-founder George Shea calls, "a gentle giant." Chiger is the #12 ranked eater in the world. The 2020 contest will be Chiger's 3rd attempt, and he hopes to improve on last year's performance of 26 hot dogs.

Eric "Badlands" Booker - Last, but certainly not least is one of the most eccentric eaters, the fan-favorite Badlands Booker. Badlands is a 6-foot-5, 400-pound professional rapper and the #21 ranked eater in the world. He holds world records in green pea eating (9.5 pounds in 12 minutes) and corned beef hash (4 pounds in 1 minute, 58 seconds). Badlands has been working on a new rap album and is expected to debut one of his songs on stage before the competition.

Odds

Picking an outright winner in this contest would be futile, as Miki Sudo (-835) and Joey Chestnut (-1000) are overwhelming favorites who should, in all likelihood, repeat as champions. Picking any other participant for the women's (+500) and men's (+550) doesn't offer enough value considering the sheer distance between the competition. A parlay of Sudo and Chestnut (-700) has a bit too much juice but is a pretty certain winner.

Miki Sudo's over/under is currently set at 40.5. In the past few years, she has only topped that once, but she recently finished 50 in a training session with her boyfriend Nick Wehry. The other advantage of Sudo is that she will be eating in a temperature-controlled environment. Sudo's recent 50-hot dog performance has me convinced she is ready to set a new women's world record.

Joey Chestnut's over/under is set at 74.5 hot dogs. Similarly, Chestnut has never topped that amount, only coming close with his world record 74 hot dogs in 2018. Despite the improved temperature conditions, a significant factor to consider is that Chestnut will not have any crowd on whose energy to feed off of. Added with this being his first MLE event back after a few months, and it all adds up to the makings of a slight off-year for Jaws. Chestnut should handily win, but to expect him to top his world-record performance in a year with significantly fewer MLE events is probably asking too much.

Predictions

Miki Sudo/Joey Chestnut to win - parlay (-700)

Miki Sudo - over 40.5 hot dogs eaten (-162)

Joey Chestnut under 74.5 hot dogs eaten (-162)