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San Francisco Giants middle infield (2B/SS) prospect Mauricio Dubon enters his rookie season in 2020 looking to make a sizable fantasy baseball impact. Dave Swan breaks down why Dubon's combination of speed and power makes him a sleeper once the season ultimately gets underway.
One of the most significant components to winning a fantasy baseball league is spotting the undervalued player, better known as a sleeper. An excellent place to discover hidden value is with Major League teams' rising rookies. A prospect waiting to make an ascension into the big leagues can bring life to any franchise and help your fantasy squad in unison.
After being in his third organization since 2016, Mauricio Dubon may have finally found a landing spot. In '17, the Giants were searching for a shot of youthful energy when they acquired Dubon, a middle infielder. The club's 11th-rated prospect per MLB Pipeline got a small bite at the Major Leagues last year. A multi-positional, plus defender like Dubon should be a mainstay in the Giants' lineup for years to come.
With very little exposure to the majors, this leaves many fantasy owners asking themselves: What do we expect from Dubon and how can he benefit my team?
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Speed + Power Showcase
Dubon was the 773rd pick of the 2013 MLB Draft from Capital Christian (CA) High School at the age of 18. In the early stages of his Minor League career, Dubon proved to have tremendous ability to steal bases as he swiped over 30 for three consecutive seasons.
Due to injury, 2018 was a shortened season for Dubon. He was able to swipe six bags during only 114 plate appearances. In '19, he swiped 13 bases throughout 648 plate appearances. His 27.3 (ft/s) sprint speed puts him in the 60th percentile among all MLB players. While the expectation shouldn't be 30-plus stolen bases, Dubon will likely be in the 10-15 range over a full season.
After mastering the skill of base stealing, his efforts turned to putting more baseballs into the bleachers. From 2017 on, Dubon showed an improvement in converting flyballs into home runs. There was significantly more power on display than any other stop in the Minor Leagues.
Throughout three locations in 2019, Dubon mashed 24 home runs. The power has finally arrived, and Dubon showed that he could flourish against MLB-caliber pitching.
Swing getting sweeter
The Sweet Spot% (SwSp%) is a metric that quantifies a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees. This stat is a useful measurement because it shows how frequent a player is striking the ball well. SwSp% is a good indicator of hard-hit balls that lead to barrels. (The MLB SwSp% average is 33.9%.)
Dubon finished 2019 with a 36 SwSp%. He started a little slow, then became acclimated to Major League pitchers and improved his SwSp% quickly.
Conclusion
Dubon is a near lock to be the starting second baseman for the Giants. In three separate stops through 2019, Dubon had a batting average of .297, .323, and .274. With plenty of plate appearances coming, Dubon will use that speed/power combination, along with the healthy batting average, to contribute in several categories.
Dubon gets drafted around pick 308 as the 30th second baseman off the board. If he takes another step forward, the return on investment could be substantial. His ATC projection has him putting up a .265 batting average, 12 HR, 53 R, 47 RBI, and 12 steals. Draft him with confidence.
