Super Futures: Early 2020 Fantasy Outlooks for Chiefs and 49ers

February 9, 2020

Here we take a post-Super Bowl look at the Chiefs and 49ers for the 2020 campaign.

Now that the Super Bowl is over, fantasy football purists are already looking ahead to the NFL Draft and next season. The Chiefs proved that a high-flying offense that boosted many teams to fantasy championships could also win a Super Bowl of its own. The 49ers fell short, but earning an NFC Championship was an impressive feat for a team that won just four games the year before.

We have seen a full postseason of performances from the Kansas City and San Francisco skill position players. How they perform at the very highest levels of the game, in playoff matchups, can give us a clearer view of what kind of upside we can expect from their players next year. Or if some did not perform well in the postseason, it could cause questions about how to value them for next year.

Here, we take a post-Super Bowl look at the Chiefs and 49ers for the 2020 campaign.

Kansas City Chiefs

Damien Williams obviously plays his best when the lights are brightest. He has scored 10 total TDs in the last two postseasons with the Chiefs, and arguably should have been named the MVP of Super Bowl LIV. But savvy fantasy players won’t make the mistake of drafting him in the third round as many did this past season. He had an overall ADP of 29 in 2019, and was a source of frustration this past regular season after he shined brightly down the stretch and in the NFL playoffs in 2018.

Injuries and inconsistency were issues for Williams as he finished as RB29 in PPR formats in 2018. While he has obvious upside as evidenced by how he performed in the playoffs, he likely won’t have the backfield to himself next season. The Chiefs need to find a stable partner to pair with him at RB. That may not be Darwin Thompson, who appears to be a versatile playmaker in the Damien Williams mold. Or Darrel Williams, who is more suited for backup duty. The Chiefs should acquire or draft a physical complement to Williams for a stronger dual pairing at RB. For now, Williams should be  considered a high-end flex option for 2020 while the situation develops during the offseason.

Injuries caused Tyreek Hill to miss four games in 2018, but he should certainly be drafted as a top-five WR next season and also be considered at least as a No. 2 keeper. All he has to do is steer clear of any off-field issues and he’ll be  picked anywhere from third to fifth at WR next year.

Whether we see Sammy Watkins return is another question. Much like Damien Williams, Watkins saved his best for the postseason this year. He had 18 catches for 288 yards and a TD, and the timing of his biggest plays was crucial. But Watkins was a totally overrated bust during the regular season. He scored all three of his TDs in Week 1 and did not finish with 65 yards in a game after the season opener. The Chiefs will take a massive cap hit of $21 million to keep him in 2020. He certainly does not appear to be worth it. Kansas City can certainly plug in a more reliable WR to function with Patrick Mahomes if they move on from Watkins. But they do want him back, according to published reports. If he does return, the recent playoffs represent his ceiling  and the 2019 season showed his floor. Watkins is explosive but unreliable and should not be considered a keeper or a fantasy starter for next year.

Mahomes can seemingly make any pass-catcher viable, as everyone down to Byron Pringle has become useful at some point. If Watkins is gone, Mecole Hardman could have the chance to step forward and become more of a playmaker next year. Demarcus Robinson is a free agent.

Travis Kelce bolstered his reputation as the clear No. 1 TE in fantasy football during Kansas City’s Super Bowl run. He is a prime keeper, first or second depending on who else you have to consider.

The only minor questions on Pat Mahomes are how early do you want to take him, and should he be picked over Lamar Jackson? The answer to the first question is round four logically, as QB is deep and you can win with another top passer. But in many leagues, you will have to take him in the third round to have a real shot of obtaining his fantasy rights. On the second question, you should opt for Jackson earlier because the rushing production is so much greater and unique for the position. Mahomes is preferable in real life, Jackson gets the nod in fantasy.

San Francisco 49ers

Raheem Mostert’s monster outing in the NFC Championship Game demonstrated his tremendous upside, but Kyle Shanahan prefers a timeshare or committee approach. Mostert has earned a key role in the San Francisco RB mix, but won’t be dependable for consistent attempts. He only carried the ball more than 14 times twice during the entire regular season and playoffs. Mostert is tremendously dangerous when he starts building momentum and he can score from anywhere on the field. He doesn’t need a heavy workload to put up impressive numbers. But he is not going to get enough regular touches to be anything more than a low-end RB2. Still, he will be able to help boost your team to victories at times.

Tevin Coleman was in and out of favor at times this year and also got banged up. He seems to be the preferred goal-line runner for the Niners and he will come through with the occasional strong outing. He is the other main RB in this San Francisco RB picture, but it will be hard to trust him at all and he should not be considered a fantasy starter for next season. The brittle Matt Breida and possibly Jeff Wilson Jr. should be back for depth purposes.

Deebo Samuel did not have any outstanding statistical performances in the postseason, but he did total 92 yards from scrimmage in the Super Bowl, had two 30-yard rushes in the NFC Championship and the SB, and a 30-yard catch in the Conference title game. He flashed a lot of promise and had 802 receiving yards as a rookie. Samuel is a yards-after-the-catch demon and should be drafted as a fantasy WR3 in 2020. He also has some appeal as a third keeper.

Emmanuel Sanders will be 33 years old in March and is a free agent. The Niners should be seeking a different complement to Samuel, maybe a speedy downfield type such as Robby Anderson to further stretch the field when needed. That’s an ideal scenario but may take some salary-cap maneuvering. Ultimately, though, San Francisco may have to find another starting WR across from Samuel for next season. Kendrick Bourne is best left to be a WR3.

George Kittle totaled eight catches for 71 yards and no TDs in the playoffs, and he had 324 less receiving yards during the regular season than in 2018. Still, he finished as the second-best TE in fantasy and should be drafted as such in 2018. He is also a fine third keeper. But he should not be targeted before the fourth round of yearly drafts in 2020. His 2019 ADP of 31 overall was a little too high, especially when you consider he has not scored more than five TDs in a season yet.

Jimmy Garoppolo finished as QB14 in fantasy football during the regular season, and his postseason was statistically forgettable, with 427 passing yards, two TD passes and three interceptions. He had some occasional strong or respectable outings during the regular season, but it’s apparent he cannot be considered a high-end fantasy backup. He may improve with time, as this was his first full season as a starter, but only to the point where he is a respectable No. 2 fantasy QB.

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