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Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Didi Gregorius is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 season. Kipp Heisterman explains why Gregorius could provide value at SS this year.
The Philadelphia Phillies finished 2019 with a record of 81-81, which was only good enough for a fourth-place finish in the NL East. They have since added the likes of Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius to improve their chances of a division title in 2020. They have also brought in highly-touted manager Joe Girardi to steer the ship.
Didi Gregorius is a very interesting signing for a team that already had Jean Segura listed at the shortstop position. With the addition, Gregorius will assume the shortstop role and Segura will slide into the everyday second baseman role. Although he isn't in the confines of Yankee Stadium anymore, Gregorius makes for a very interesting sleeper heading into 2020.
First, it should be noted that Gregorius is coming off a rather down year in 2019 where he slashed .238/.276/.441 with 16 HR, 61 RBI, 47, R and 17 BB in 324 at-bats. He also ranked outside the top 300 in terms of average production in 2019. It is also important to note, however, that he returned from Tommy John surgery after having missed all of April and May. Therefore, the 2019 season may be an outlier, and perhaps we should look at previous seasons to best gauge what type of production we should expect out of him in 2020.
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A Solid Rebound Candidate
Gregorius has several things working in his favor heading into 2020, the first of which is health. In 2019, Gregorius came back from Tommy John surgery a bit earlier than expected and struggled for the better part of the season. When healthy, over the previous three seasons (2016-2018), he managed to average a .277 BA with 24 HR, 81 RBI, and 77 R. As recently as 2018, he was ranked inside the top 75 as far as overall stats were concerned and was ranked inside the top 50 as far as average stats were concerned. In 2018, he also put up a .262 xBA, .402 xSLG, and .319 xWOBA, all of which were above his career norms. He also had a strikeout rate of just 12.1%, which ranked in the top seven percent of the league. When healthy, Gregorius is a clear producer that should provide plenty of value.
While he is no longer in the juggernaut lineup that is the New York Yankees, he isn't exactly in a cesspool of a situation in Philadelphia either. He enters a lineup that finished 2019 ranked 14th overall in total runs scored with 774. This is with Andrew McCutchen missing nearly four months of the season as well, who should be back in full force for 2020. Gregorius is also projected to hit fifth in the Phillies lineup, which should give him ample opportunity to put those bat skills to work and drive in plenty of runs.
Gregorius may also be transitioning out of a notorious hitter's park for lefties, but the situation in Philadelphia should still prove to be fruitful. Citizens Bank Park ranks 10th in the league for park factors in terms of runs scored. It is also just 16 feet further down the right-field line, which is a good thing for his power numbers as noted by his spray chart since almost all of his power is aimed toward right-field.
Conclusion
Overall, Didi Gregorius is a strong rebound candidate headed into 2020. He currently has an ADP near 200 and is being taken as the 29th shortstop off the board. This means he is being drafted in round 16 of most 12-team mixed leagues. He should provide plenty of value at this draft position and can likely be taken one round earlier and still provide plenty of value. Keep in mind that this is a player who was ranked in the top 75 overall in 2018 before his Tommy John surgery.
