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Baltimore Orioles outfielder Austin Hays is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 season. Mike Schwarzenbach explains why Hays could provide value at OF this year.
One of my favorite aspects of fantasy sports is the excitement that it can bring to fans that otherwise might not have much to cheer about. Fans of the Baltimore Orioles certainly fit that description. The O's lost 108 games last season and didn't make many changes to the Major League club, with the exception of trading away their most productive offensive player, of course. A quick look at their roster forecasts another cloudy season that will likely result in another 100-plus loss campaign.
However, things aren't all bad in Baltimore. In addition to world-class crab cakes, Baltimore will also be home to outfielder Austin Hays, the Orioles' fourth-ranked prospect according to Baseball America. Hays has some big league experience, as he had a cup of coffee in the Majors in 2017 in addition to 21 games last year, but 2020 will be fans' first full look at a player that they hope will be a staple in the outfield of the next great Orioles team.
Fantasy managers, however, may want to jump on the Hays train now, as he could help win some fantasy titles long before the Orioles are back to being a playoff contender.
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Prospect pedigree
Hays has been in the Orioles' system since they drafted him out of Jacksonville University with a third-round pick in the 2016 Draft. As most teams do with college draft picks, Hays was sent to Short-Season A ball, where he mashed to the tune of a .336/.386/.514 slash line. Hays put up a solid '17 as well, splitting time between Class A Advanced and Double-A, earning a 20-game look with the Orioles as a September callup, which made him the first '16 draftee to play in the Major Leagues.
Things did not go as well in 2018, as injury and underperformance kept him from playing in the Majors. He returned to Double-A in '19, but quickly hit his way to Triple-A, where he showed enough to warrant another September callup. In 21 MLB games, Hays slashed .309/.373/.574 with 4 HR, 12 runs, 13 RBI, and two steals, while flashing the ability that scouts have been touting through his years in the Minors. Obviously, the sample size is extremely small, but having success at the Major League-level could be vital for the confidence of a young player expected to compete for a starting job in 2020.
Sprinting into the lineup
The Orioles' starting outfield is a mess heading into Spring Training. Trey Mancini has one spot locked down, but Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander, among others, are in the mix for a starting job. That being said, Hays is currently projected to be one of their starters and it'd be hard to imagine that the Orioles don't want their most Major League-ready prospect on the field. Even if he does start the season in Triple-A, Hays should be up very early in the season and could make a big impact when he does finally crack the Major League roster for good.
Hays boasts an impressive power/speed combo that is so elusive, but so valuable in fantasy. His sprint speed graded in the 85th percentile in the Majors last season, according to Statcast, and he stole 11 bases across three levels last year. Hays won't be an elite steals guy in the Majors, but getting to 10 is a reasonable expectation, and his speed could put him in the mix to leadoff, which will help him score runs.
Where Hays could really make a difference is power. As we can see below, Hays had a tendency to hit the ball in the air throughout his professional career.
He was a good home run hitter in the Minors, where he mashed 32 homers in 2017 between Class A Advanced and Double-A, and his swing is tailor-made for the friendly confines of Camden Yards. Baltimore ranked fourth overall in home run park factor, and was the top-ranked home run ballpark for right-handed batters, according to Baseball Prospectus. His Statcast data is limited to his few Major League games, but he hit the ball hard last September, generating an above-average 89.8 MPH average exit velocity on 55 batted balls. Lots of hard contact and flyballs with plus-speed is an ideal profile to target late in fantasy drafts.
Conclusion
Assuming that he lands a starting job, Hays should be an immediate fantasy contributor as a rookie. He is a solid power hitter with the ability to hit for enough average to not drain that category. His strikeout rate was much better than average throughout his Minor League career, so even if he strikes out a bit more adjusting to big league pitching, he should still put up numbers that are useful to fantasy.
Steamer's projection system has his batting line projected at .259 BA, 20 HR, 56 R, 62 RBI, and eight steals. Other projection systems have him putting up a similar line, as others expect between 18-21 homers and six to nine steals. It's not out of the question to expect 20-plus homers and 10-plus steals from the 24-year-old rookie. That kind of upside available from a player with an average draft position of 281 should be enough to bring a smile to the face of even the most dedicated Orioles supporter.
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