2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Aaron Civale

February 26, 2020

Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Aaron Civale is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 season. Jamie Steed explains why Civale could provide value at SP this year.

With Mike Clevinger sidelined to start the year and Corey Kluber off to Texas, the Indians will rely on the emergence of Aaron Civale to bolster their typically-formidable rotation.

Civale impressed in his rookie season with 10 starts, 57.2 innings pitched (IP), a 3-4 win-loss record, 2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 46 Ks. Due to the small sample size, we will need to delve into his minor league numbers to get a better idea of what to expect in 2020.

With a minimal cost in fantasy drafts, let's determine if Civale is worth a roster spot in 2020.

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A Mixed Bag

The slight on Civale as a fantasy option is his below-average strikeout numbers. In an era of record strikeouts, Civale had a strikeout rate of 20.3% last year (the league average for 2019 starting pitchers was 22.3%). Civale’s minor league strikeout rate was 20.6 %, so there’s no reason to believe he’ll get it above the major league average without some adjustments.

Civale’s 2019 walk rate (7.1%) was higher than his minor league numbers, but it was still below the league average of 8.5 BB%. Along with limiting walks, his success is largely due to inducing weak contact with an arsenal of pitches featuring elite spin rates. Statcast (see below) shows Civale as being in the 83^rd percentile for average exit velocity allowed (86.6 MPH), 96^th percentile for curve spin (2,930 RPM) and 85^th percentile for fastball spin (2,415 RPM).

Civale predominately relies on a sinker (thrown 35% of the time) and a cutter (29.6%). A slider (14.4%), curveball (11.1%) and changeup (6.6%) round off his pitch mix along with a 4-seam fastball (3.2%) which is more a sinker that doesn’t sink. To give you an idea of the effectiveness of his pitches, the table below shows the batters’ numbers against each one.

As mentioned at the start, this is all based on a small sample of just 57.2 IP in the majors. Civale earned his promotion to the Indians after putting up a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts across Double-A and Triple-A to start 2019. As we touched upon, Civale’s minor league walk-rate (3.8 BB%) was even better than the 7.1 BB% he had with the Indians, meaning he walked just 58 of the 1,538 batters he faced. Civale’s 381.1 IP in the minor leagues yielded a 3.12 ERA so we shouldn’t be at all surprised if he succeeds with the Indians in 2020 following his 10 start debut year.

A pitcher such as Civale needs the support of his defense to be able to excel. And in Cleveland, he has just that. In 2019, the Indians ranked fourth in DEF (Defensive Runs Above Average) according to Fangraphs and had two gold-glove winners in Francisco Lindor and Roberto Perez. Cesar Hernandez (1.6 DEF) replacing Jason Kipnis (5.2 DEF) at second base for 2020 is a downgrade but shouldn’t be enough to cause considerable harm. Civale’s pitching profile is one that will regularly have a higher FIP than ERA, so his 3.40 FIP in 2019 still offers space for the expected regression in his ERA without it becoming a concern.

Civale also has the benefit of pitching in a division containing two of the worst offenses. The Tigers ranked dead last in runs scored (582) whilst the Royals fared marginally better (691) in 26th place. Both teams also ranked in the bottom four in slugging (Tigers 29th with .388 and Royals 27th with .401), and neither has really done much this winter to address that. The Twins still have a scary good offense, and the White Sox do look better on paper this year, but they too finished near the bottom offensively in 2019 as they were 25th in slugging (.414) and 24th in runs scored (708). Even with their offensive improvements, they're not a team that should scare you away from starting pitchers against them.

2020 Outlook

With his ~275 ADP on NFBC, Civale is currently being drafted as a back-end rotation piece. Despite his low strikeout numbers, Civale can be used as a low-cost ratio helper. For example, he's an ideal pairing with Robbie Ray, who will get elite Ks but comes with an elevated WHIP. Or if you take a gamble on Mitch Keller's strikeout upside with the risk of a high ERA, Civale's numbers should be able to offset most of that risk. It’s not unreasonable to believe Civale can put up a 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 150 IP in 2020. That would put him as a mid-tier fantasy option and allows for regression from his rookie season at a current draft cost of a late-round pick.

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