X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Aaron Civale

fantasy baseball draft sleepers values rankings

Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Aaron Civale is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 season. Jamie Steed explains why Civale could provide value at SP this year.

With Mike Clevinger sidelined to start the year and Corey Kluber off to Texas, the Indians will rely on the emergence of Aaron Civale to bolster their typically-formidable rotation.

Civale impressed in his rookie season with 10 starts, 57.2 innings pitched (IP), a 3-4 win-loss record, 2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 46 Ks. Due to the small sample size, we will need to delve into his minor league numbers to get a better idea of what to expect in 2020.

With a minimal cost in fantasy drafts, let's determine if Civale is worth a roster spot in 2020.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

A Mixed Bag

The slight on Civale as a fantasy option is his below-average strikeout numbers. In an era of record strikeouts, Civale had a strikeout rate of 20.3% last year (the league average for 2019 starting pitchers was 22.3%). Civale’s minor league strikeout rate was 20.6 %, so there’s no reason to believe he’ll get it above the major league average without some adjustments.

Civale’s 2019 walk rate (7.1%) was higher than his minor league numbers, but it was still below the league average of 8.5 BB%. Along with limiting walks, his success is largely due to inducing weak contact with an arsenal of pitches featuring elite spin rates. Statcast (see below) shows Civale as being in the 83rd percentile for average exit velocity allowed (86.6 MPH), 96th percentile for curve spin (2,930 RPM) and 85th percentile for fastball spin (2,415 RPM).

Civale predominately relies on a sinker (thrown 35% of the time) and a cutter (29.6%). A slider (14.4%), curveball (11.1%) and changeup (6.6%) round off his pitch mix along with a 4-seam fastball (3.2%) which is more a sinker that doesn’t sink. To give you an idea of the effectiveness of his pitches, the table below shows the batters’ numbers against each one.

Pitch Type No. Pitches AVG SLG wOBA
Sinker 302 .213 .288 .252
Cutter 255 .235 .500 .329
Slider 124 .080 .080 .116
Curve 95 .238 .381 .258
Changeup 57 .286 .429 .264
4-seam 28 .667 1.667 .956

As mentioned at the start, this is all based on a small sample of just 57.2 IP in the majors. Civale earned his promotion to the Indians after putting up a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts across Double-A and Triple-A to start 2019. As we touched upon, Civale’s minor league walk-rate (3.8 BB%) was even better than the 7.1 BB% he had with the Indians, meaning he walked just 58 of the 1,538 batters he faced. Civale’s 381.1 IP in the minor leagues yielded a 3.12 ERA so we shouldn’t be at all surprised if he succeeds with the Indians in 2020 following his 10 start debut year.

A pitcher such as Civale needs the support of his defense to be able to excel. And in Cleveland, he has just that. In 2019, the Indians ranked fourth in DEF (Defensive Runs Above Average) according to Fangraphs and had two gold-glove winners in Francisco Lindor and Roberto Perez. Cesar Hernandez (1.6 DEF) replacing Jason Kipnis (5.2 DEF) at second base for 2020 is a downgrade but shouldn’t be enough to cause considerable harm. Civale’s pitching profile is one that will regularly have a higher FIP than ERA, so his 3.40 FIP in 2019 still offers space for the expected regression in his ERA without it becoming a concern.

Civale also has the benefit of pitching in a division containing two of the worst offenses. The Tigers ranked dead last in runs scored (582) whilst the Royals fared marginally better (691) in 26th place. Both teams also ranked in the bottom four in slugging (Tigers 29th with .388 and Royals 27th with .401), and neither has really done much this winter to address that. The Twins still have a scary good offense, and the White Sox do look better on paper this year, but they too finished near the bottom offensively in 2019 as they were 25th in slugging (.414) and 24th in runs scored (708). Even with their offensive improvements, they're not a team that should scare you away from starting pitchers against them.

 

2020 Outlook

With his ~275 ADP on NFBC, Civale is currently being drafted as a back-end rotation piece. Despite his low strikeout numbers, Civale can be used as a low-cost ratio helper. For example, he's an ideal pairing with Robbie Ray, who will get elite Ks but comes with an elevated WHIP. Or if you take a gamble on Mitch Keller's strikeout upside with the risk of a high ERA, Civale's numbers should be able to offset most of that risk. It’s not unreasonable to believe Civale can put up a 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 150 IP in 2020. That would put him as a mid-tier fantasy option and allows for regression from his rookie season at a current draft cost of a late-round pick.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zac Veen21 mins ago

Triples, Collects Four RBI At Triple-A On Wednesday
Zac Gallen22 mins ago

Strikes Out 13
Luke Waddell52 mins ago

Swinging A Hot Bat At Triple-A
Chandler Simpson1 hour ago

With A Two-Run Triple, Stolen Base On Wednesday
Austin Gomber2 hours ago

Scratched From Rehab Start With Shoulder Inflammation
Zack Wheeler2 hours ago

Records 10 Strikeouts
Aroldis Chapman3 hours ago

Earns First Save Of The Season
Garrett Crochet3 hours ago

Works Eight Strong Innings
Rafael Devers3 hours ago

Finally Delivers At The Plate
Xavier Edwards3 hours ago

Collects Four Hits
Pete Alonso3 hours ago

Comes Up Clutch
Jackson Merrill5 hours ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Luis Castillo5 hours ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Seiya Suzuki5 hours ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Dennis Santana6 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Evan Phillips6 hours ago

Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips Starting Rehab Assignments
George Springer6 hours ago

Hits First Homer In Win Over Nationals
Alex Bregman6 hours ago

Considering Using Torpedo Bat
Freddie Freeman6 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ozzie Albies6 hours ago

Moving To Leadoff Spot On Wednesday
Freddy Peralta7 hours ago

Dazzles In No-Decision Against Royals
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
9
11
10
12
19
13
22
14
24
15
25
16
33
17
39
18
40
19
41

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
1
1
2
3
3
7
4
11
6
14
7
15
8
18
9
19
10
20