2020 Fantasy Baseball Busts - RotoBaller Staff Picks

March 7, 2020

The RotoBaller staff unveils the players they feel could be the biggest busts for both hitters and pitchers in the 2020 fantasy baseball season.

As you prepare for fantasy baseball drafts in 2020, it's crucial that you avoid the dreaded bust who could sink your team. As we did with sleepers, our staff came together to share their thoughts on preseason ADP values, this time on their least favorite picks.

While you've likely heard some of these names already in our MLB Preseason articles, we've compiled the biggest names in one convenient location.

Let's find out who our experts have pegged for a decline or who may return a negative value based on preseason ADP in 2020. Here are the RotoBaller staff's draft-day busts to avoid!

Which hitter ranked inside the top 100 is the biggest potential bust?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It's hard to live up to expectations when you are perhaps the most hyped prospect of all time. Vladdy had his moments in his rookie season, but he really tanked down the stretch. His conditioning must improve and he'll certainly need to lower his 49.6 percent ground-ball rate if he is to justify his ADP in his sophomore season. He's being drafted as if he'll make the leap to an elite fantasy third baseman in 2020, but it might take more time. -Keith Hernandez

Adalberto Mondesi is not likely to return the same level of power this season. Shoulder injuries tend to plague hitters even after they are "healed," and Mondesi needs his ability to hit the ball well because he owns a 4.1% walk rate for his career. If Mondesi's batting average drops even 15 points from the .263 of 2019, he's going to enter Mallex Smith territory at terminal velocity. -Dave Emerick

Adalberto Mondesi is ranked in the top-50 because he does one thing better than almost every other baseball player. His 43 stolen bases were second in the league, but he was a liability everywhere else. He only hit nine homers in 102 games and finished in the bottom-sixth percentile in strikeout rate, walk rate, and xWOBA. Mondesi is being drafted at his ceiling and if he fails to reach 40 stolen bases for any reason, his fantasy owners will be let down. -Mike Schwarzenbach

Peter Alonso is my early-round bust. He hit 53 home runs last season when he hadn't even hit 40 in any season prior. He is being drafted as a 50+ home run talent but has a hitting profile similar to Matt Olson and going a few rounds before. Look for some regression in all hitting categories that will not justify his high draft price. -Brian Entrekin

Fernando Tatis Jr. was electric across 84 games last season, smashing 22 homers and swiping 16 bags. That kind of potential has him going off boards as the #19 overall player this season. While he's certainly got stud pedigree, he benefited from a ridiculous .410 BABIP last season. It's highly unlikely he's able to replicate that, just like he's unlikely to replicate the .272 ISO mark, which is a full 30 points higher than his previous career-high (in A ball). Tatis is undoubtedly a superstar in the making, but I'm not willing to take him over guys like Jose Ramirez and Rafael Devers, both of whom are going after him. -Bill Dubiel

A hitter who has big potential to be a bust inside the top 100 would be Jonathan Villar. The overall consensus on needing stolen bases seems to be overblown. Villar also had a very high amount of plate appearances last year that I don't see him repeating this year. Expect him to not return draft day value. -Michael Simione

While J.T. Realmuto saw a slight bump in production across the board last year, much of that was likely due to hitting in a much better lineup and ballpark. He's obviously a great player to have on your team, but he's going in the fourth round of drafts ahead of position players with more upside. I just can't rationalize burning such a high pick on a catcher, even one as solid as J.T. -Dan Palyo

Whit Merrifield. A premium source of steals, Merrifield managed only 20 stolen bases last year, less than half the 45 he achieved in 2018. Merrifield hasn't hit 20 homers in a season yet either so the oft desired 20/20 season hasn't materialized and likely never will. His sprint speed is in decline having dropped outside the top 10% in MLB for the first time last year. The Royals offense is still very much below average and it's only through reaching 700 plate appearances that Merrifield is able to put up solid counting stats. There's no upside but plenty of downside for Merrifield in 2020. -Jamie Steed

It seems like most drafters are overlooking Whit Merrifield’s subpar stolen base performance from 2019. After averaging almost 40 thefts per season in 2017-18, he played all 162 games in 2019 and went 20-for-30 on the basepaths while dropping from the 92nd percentile in Sprint Speed to the 85th. Now entering his age-31 season with a more conservative manager in Mike Matheny, chalking him up for a 25-theft campaign seems optimistic with a likely pullback in plate appearances. Merrifield will provide a good amount of runs and a high batting average, but he’s not worth the late fourth/early fifth-round price. -Riley Mrack

Which pitcher ranked inside the top 100 is the biggest potential bust?

Stephen Strasburg is a great pitcher, but he's being drafted based on his best-case scenario season. Last year Strasburg threw 209 innings before adding 36.1 more during the Nationals' World Series run. He hadn't reached the 200 inning mark since 2014 and is unlikely to make it there this season. His 1.98 ERA is also likely to regress to his career number thanks to an unsustainable 88% strand-rate. A top-30 average draft position doesn't factor in enough of the risk that should be associated with Strasburg this season. -Mike Schwarzenbach

Jack Flaherty has been on my bust list all offseason. He had that remarkable second-half run and there seems to be some recency bias there. His fastball was never that good and while he should have a good season, he is being drafted at his ceiling. -Michael Simione

Many people are paying up for Jack Flaherty’s dominant second-half performance, where he posted a 0.91 ERA and 0.71 WHIP for the Cardinals last season. If his halves flipped and his 4.64 ERA and 1.23 WHIP pre-All-Star break numbers were what he ended his season on, we’d have a much different recency bias. Flaherty still could only muster 11 wins since he averaged less than six innings per start and surrendered an ERA of 4.00 after the first time through the order. I expect the law of averages to prevail in 2020, where he pitches much closer to his 3.64 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA, which will push him outside his top-six starting pitcher draft selection. -Riley Mrack

Zack Greinke. The veteran right-hander has at least 15 wins in each of the last three seasons and he should have plenty more chances for wins in 2020 in his first full season with the Astros. However, his strikeout rate continues to dip and his xFIP of 3.74 last year showed he wasn't nearly as good as his 2.93 ERA suggested. The 36-year-old will throw strikes and has proven durable, but at what cost are you chasing those wins? -Keith Hernandez

While Tyler Glasnow had twelve incredible starts last year, his injury history concerns me and the possibility for regression is definitely real. I watched him pitch a lot while he was in the minors with Pittsburgh and with the big league team and while he has incredible stuff, he still doesn't completely understand how to use it and I worry about the walk issues that plagued him. We just have a very small sample size of him being awesome for him to be drafted as high as he is currently. -Dan Palyo

I'm genuinely concerned about every starting pitcher from Justin Verlander (ranked 14th) to Tyler Glasnow (75th). It's not that the pitchers before or after are necessarily better, but their risks are better reflected by their prices. Nearly every pitcher from Verlander to Glasnow has a real and definite issue that is not being priced in. Of the 27 starters drafted in the top-100 last season, only 12 finished in the top 150 of overall value. Maybe that's directly connected to the changes in the baseball and the rash of injuries, but it doesn't seem to be priced into the current cost of starters. -Dave Emerick

Chris Paddack had a strong 2019 season and many are drafting him at a near-ace level. He did show some signs of decline late last season and I see that continuing this year. He will be a strong pitcher but relies way too much on control. In games where the control wavered, so did his production. He's a solid pitcher but there are better options being drafted around him. -Brian Entrekin

Mike Soroka had an unexpectedly dominant 2019, going 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA across 174.2 innings. At just 22, there's certainly plenty of time/room for him to grow, but a deep look at his underlying stats reveal his season had some luck to it. His xFip is nearly a full run higher (3.85) and his 20.3% K-rate is certainly not something I want to pay up for on draft day. It's possible he maintains this kind of success, but I'd wager it's more likely that he regresses a bit. -Bill Dubiel

Chris Sale. This choice is purely down to health concerns. The Red Sox announced at the start of spring that Sale will likely miss the start of the year following a bout of pneumonia. Sale's elbow still doesn't appear 100% and the Red Sox seem to be lacking interest in competing this year so will proceed with caution with regards to Sale's health. If he makes 30+ starts in 2020, he will be a top-20 SP, but that looks to be a long-shot right now with 20 starts more probable. -Jamie Steed 

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