2020 Fantasy Baseball Busts? Danny Santana

March 13, 2020

Texas Rangers outfielder Danny Santana could be a fantasy baseball bust and overvalued draft target for the 2020 season. Kipp Heisterman explains why Santana is not worth his current ADP at the OF position.

The Texas Rangers finished the 2019 season with a record 0f 78-84, which was good for a third-place finish in the American League West. The finish was actually above preseason expectations and now has the team looking to make a push forward in 2020. The Rangers have plenty of youth and have brought in the likes of Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, and Jordan Lyles to help bolster their starting rotation.

One major bright spot for the 2019 Texas Rangers was Danny Santana. Santana slashed .283/.324/.534 with 28 HR, 81 RBI, 81 R, and 21 SB in 2019. He set career highs in each of these stats and went over 400 at-bats for only the second time in his career.

The question for Santana entering 2020 is whether or not he will be able to provide value for fantasy owners at his current ADP of 150? A deeper dive into his metrics should help us with the answer to this question.

Slamtana in 2020?

Danny Santana is one of those 2019 breakouts that pretty much no one saw coming. He also went from going undrafted in 2019 to now being a 12th-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues.  It was a tremendous season for the one-time Minnesota Twin and was good enough to rank him in the top 100 in most mixed leagues. In 2020, he is being drafted with hopes of him returning similar value in the way of power and speed. Whether or not he is likely to do this is another story.

First, his power metrics were way above his career norms. For instance, his exit velocity was four mph higher than his career average and his xSLG of .496 was nearly 100 points higher than his career average of .399. All this power translated into a career-high 28 home runs. Before 2019, Santana had never hit more than seven(!) in a season. He also added in a hard-hit rate of 43.6, which was a ridiculous 8.1% above his career average.

These power metrics seem unsustainable for a guy that has never shown this type of power over the parts of seven seasons. Also, keep in mind that the Rangers will be playing in a new ballpark that is expected to be neutral to hitters after playing at Globe Life Park, which was ranked third in park factors for runs scored and 12th for home runs in 2019.

Santana also provided value to fantasy owners via the stolen base as he managed to snag a career-high 21 bags. This number also seems unattainable in 2020 as he is averaging approximately 22 stolen bases per 162 games played throughout his career. If he played another 130 games in 2020, you could expect to get somewhere around 18 stolen bases, possibly less considering his 2019 sprint speed only ranked him in the top 70th percentile.

All of this information adds up to him being drafted too high for 2020. In this same area (round 12) you would be getting more value from a player like Tommy Edman, who should also provide a little pop and pairs it with tons of speed and on-base ability.

Aside from these factors, are the recent reports that his playing time could suffer. In spring training, the Rangers have been using Nick Solak in centerfield, which could relegate Santana to an everyday type of utility role. What this would do for his at-bats is not quite certain, but having your everyday position taken away is never a good sign.

Conclusion

Overall, buying into Danny Santana for 2020 is a risky proposition. He hit well above his career-averages in terms of power metrics, may lose playing time to young players like Nick Solak, and is moving to a ballpark that should not be nearly as friendly as his previous home. All these things add up to Santana being taken too high in 2020 fantasy drafts. As aforementioned, drafting someone like Tommy Edman in the 12th round would be much more advised as he provides similar tools and has similar position flexibility.

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