2019 Fantasy Football Projections: Wide Receivers (Part Two)

September 2, 2019

Spencer Aguiar's 2019 fantasy football projections for wide receivers (part two). He highlights his WR rankings with tiered analysis and projections for fantasy-relevant NFL running backs.

I've already projected this year's quarterbacks, running backs, and first four tiers of WRs. Now, it's time to continue by looking at the rest of the most fantasy-relevant wide receivers on draft day. Listed below are my rankings and projections for the 2019 season, which will hopefully help you find some clarification if you are having any issues separating players into different ranks.

We will assume typical scoring of 0.10 points per rushing or receiving yard, six-point TDs, and full PPR. Please note that there may be minor discrepancies between the projections and rankings.

All players have been updated to account for injuries, holdouts, and any other circumstances that may affect their team's context or performance in 2019.

2019 Fantasy Football WR Rankings

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Tier 5

#21 - Tyler Boyd

Projected Fantasy Points: 214.38

Tyler Boyd is an interesting name to consider on draft day because of the uncertainty surrounding A.J. Green, but should we pump the brakes slightly regarding his expectation level during the absence of the All-Pro wideout?

In 2018, Boyd averaged 8.22 targets, 6.11 receptions, 79.67 yards per game and 17.44 fantasy points per contest when Green lined up on the field with him. However, when Green was forced out of action, we saw Boyd's statistics plummet across the board, producing 6.8 targets, 4.2 receptions, 62.2 yards and 12.82 fantasy points per game. The reason for this was due to the fact that the 24-year-old was forced out of his preferred slot destination and placed outside to run routes against number one corners, causing a decrease in effectiveness and efficiency. There is enough to like about Boyd to keep him in the discussion as one of the top 20 fantasy wideouts in 2019, but I'd temper expectations slightly if you are expecting the four-year pro to emerge as a WR1 threat.

#22 - Alshon Jeffery

Projected Fantasy Points: 210.0

There have been rumors that the Philadelphia Eagles are shopping Alshon Jeffery on the market, which would most likely hurt his overall value if he ended up on a team like the Houston Texans, but I'm willing to wager against that scenario playing out and will insert him inside my top 24 WRs for 2019.

There is nothing wrong if you land Jeffery as your WR2 during drafts, but I would feel much more comfortable if I owned him on a team where he could either be my WR3 or flex option. Part of my thought process for that is due to Jeffery's propensity to provide game logs that can range between WR1 potential to WR4 outputs. I'd prefer a higher floor for a player that I have to roll out weekly as a supporting member of my squad, but there is no denying the upside the Eagles have on offense this season and consider me sold on picking up pieces when possible.

#23 - D.J. Moore

Projected Fantasy Points: 207.42

I understand the hype around Curtis Samuel, but let's not have it come at the expense of D.J. Moore. Since the NFL merger, only 17 WRs have posted over 600 yards at the age of 21. Moore joined that illustrious club last season after recording respectable rookie totals of 55 receptions, 788 yards and two touchdowns, but his upside has the potential to go through the roof if Cam Newton can remain healthy in 2019.

Moore finished 2018 ranked first in the NFL amongst WRs in average yards after the catch at 7.9, which just so happened to be the third-highest total for a wideout in the past 10 years. Sure, tout Samuel all you want as the Panthers breakout star but give me Moore as the player that will lead the team in fantasy points at the position when the year comes to an end.

#24 T.Y. Hilton

Projected Fantasy Points: 200.94

Doomsday has struck the Indianapolis Colts on offense, and it appears as if T.Y. Hilton will need a little luck if he wants to reach his lofty expectations of seasons past. I'm not opposed to taking a shot on Hilton if the price is right, but that number is going to have to come way down from his current ADP of 33rd overall for me to feel willing to pull the trigger. Personally, I'd prefer him as a selection towards the end of the fourth round or early part of the fifth, but it doesn't seem likely that will be his going rate in most drafts.

Hilton's target share remained steady at 23.1% when he and Jacoby Brissett partnered up in 2017, but the lack of quality passes and the sheer number of attempts drastically declined Hilton's production across the board, making him WR27 in PPR leagues. I think the duo will be able to slightly better that performance in 2019, but it all comes down to what kind of value you are able to get on the 29-year-old. You won't find me reaching on draft day, but you also won't find me taking him completely off my board.

#25 - Mike Williams

Projected Fantasy Points: 202.37

After a rookie season that was marred by injury, Mike Williams made the most of lost time during his sophomore year by hauling in 43 receptions for 664 yards and 11 total touchdowns.

If we are looking for some negatives, Williams finished over his expected TD output by 5.2 scores in 2018 and only brought in a total of 66 targets, but all these factors are already being baked into his current ADP of 59th overall. There is upside there for a breakout, but I will consider him a back-end WR2 that will need a few extra targets if he wants to enter the next realm of possibilities.

#26 - Calvin Ridley

Projected Fantasy Points: 196.48

Calvin Ridley's rookie season didn't suffer the typical freshmen woes that we have seen from many first-year wide receivers. The 24-year-old began his career with six touchdowns in the first month of the year and ended the season with a total of 10 scores, joining a list of seven other WRs in NFL history that found the endzone 10 or more times in season one.

Despite the stellar accolades that have been added to his record, some form of TD regression is in store for Ridley in 2019. His expected value had him at 4.6 touchdowns being his fair value in 2018, but you could argue that the expected downslide is already baked into his ADP of 55th overall. With all that being said, Ridley is an injury away of Jones from catapulting up the ranks of options, making him a high-floor selection with credible upside.

#27 - Dede Westbrook

Projected Fantasy Points: 201.22

Dede Westbrook brings with him an ideal combination of talent and opportunity, and as we all know by now, targets are a WRs best friend. In 2018, only 15 wide receivers finished the year with at least 120 targets, and of those players, all concluded the season ranked inside the top 20 for PPR scoring. None of that is necessarily meant to come as a surprise, but it is a solid basis for when we are attempting to find potential breakout candidates.

I have Westbrook projected at a 21.7 percent target share in Jacksonville's offense, but you could easily make a case that we are looking at the potential of him reaching closer to 23%+ - which would be good enough for the threshold needed to finish as a top 20 scorer at the position in PPR leagues in the past.

#28 - Allen Robinson

Projected Fantasy Points: 188.12

Allen Robinson occasionally flashes elite ability but has found difficulty building on that success since his 2015 breakout campaign that saw him finish as WR6 in PPR leagues.

Poor quarterback play, light usage in the red zone and the changing of teams have stunted some of Robinson's upside in recent years, but if Mitchell Trubisky is able to take the next step in his maturation process as a QB, the 26-year-old has potential to regain his top-tier stature. His 11 red zone looks last season placed him third on his own team, so that number will have to see an increase if he wants to get out of this range, but let's not count him out quite yet.

#29 - Jarvis Landry

Projected Fantasy Points: 184.7

Jarvis Landry's catch-rate plummeted to a career-low of 54.7% in 2018, but a lot of that can be chalked up to Baker Mayfield's rookie development and Cleveland's inclination to use the 26-year-old as more of a downfield threat than Miami did in prior seasons.

With his friend Odell Beckham Jr. in town, Landry should go back to his usual role of a surehanded WR that can rack up catches in a PPR league, but the low touchdown ceiling does hurt his overall upside. There is nothing wrong with grabbing some safety in the middle of your draft, and Landry provides that for you with zero missed games during his five-year career.

#30 - Christian Kirk

Projected Fantasy Points: 199.44

The hype has subdued around Christian Kirk in recent weeks and his current ADP of 82nd overall places him in a territory where there is potential to be had on the second-year pro. A broken foot in Week 13 cost Kirk the final four games of 2018, but the 22-year-old was quietly putting together a successful first season in the NFL before his injury. Kirk hauled in 43 receptions for 580 yards and three TDs, but perhaps more importantly, had a 20.4 percent target share of the Cardinals' passing offense.

There is no doubting that Arizona was an unmitigated disaster last year, but new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie QB Kyler Murray will add life into the system. That alone gives Kirk some potential to be a fantasy difference-maker.

#31 - Tyler Lockett

Projected Fantasy Points: 183.2

Tyler Lockett represented near perfection last season for the Seattle Seahawks. If we use the NFL passer rating system, Russell Wilson posted a 158.3 rating while targeting Lockett, completing 81.4% of his attempts for nearly 17 yards per reception when locking in on the speedster.

Touchdown regression is undoubtedly on its way for Lockett, who exceeded his projected total by 7.8 scores last year, but the likelihood for increased volume should keep the Kansas State product around the same level of production that he experienced last season. Lockett has supporters that will swear this ranking is too low - which it might end up being, but it is hard to be overly bullish about a player that could struggle to reach 100 targets on a run-first offense.

Tier 6 

Tier six and beyond will just include the season-long projections. All forecasts are updated to account for the current situation for each player and will be tiered off into sections. Not all players listed below were in my top 50 players in terms of projected fantasy points. There are a few minor discrepancies so be sure to view both the projections and rankings!

#32 - Will Fuller

Projected Fantasy Points: 183.14

#33 - Albert Wilson

Projected Fantasy Points: 183.92

#34 - Sterling Shepard

Projected Fantasy Points: 177.2

#35 - Sammy Watkins

Projected Fantasy Points: 176.06

#36 - Robby Anderson

Projected Fantasy Points: 176.70

#37 - Emmanuel Sanders

Projected Fantasy Points: 176.46

Tier 7 and The Rest

#38 - Josh Gordon

Projected Fantasy Points: 174.72

#39 - Dante Pettis

Projected Fantasy Points: 180.06

#40 - Donte Moncrief

Projected Fantasy Points: 175.18

#41 - Marvin Jones

Projected Fantasy Points: 171.90

#42 - Tyrell Williams

Projected Fantasy Points: 169.04

#43 - Keke Coutee

Projected Fantasy Points: 178.02

#44 - Daesean Hamilton

Projected Fantasy Points: 174.21

#45 - Corey Davis

Projected Fantasy Points: 167.08

#46 - Curtis Samuel

Projected Fantasy Points: 161.72

#47 - Golden Tate

Projected Fantasy Points: 146.80

#48 - Geronimo Allison

Projected Fantasy Points: 157.98

#49 - Jamison Crowder

Projected Fantasy Points: 164.46

#50 - Larry Fitzgerald

Projected Fantasy Points: 149.66

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