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"Thunder" Dan Palyo looks at fantasy basketball risers from the 2019-2020 NBA season who should be on your radar for the upcoming 2020-2021 season based on their improved performances.
It feels like just last month I was breaking down NBA Finals games for DFS contests and here we are with the 2020-2021 season set to tip-off in only six weeks. We have the shortest NBA offseason EVER this year and it's already time to do some evaluation of the longest season ever as we prepare for the 2021 season.
The long layoff from March to July almost made like the bubble games and playoffs were a separate season, but we have nearly a full season of data for most players to crunch now. It's time to reflect on the 2019-2020 season to see what who were our "risers" and "fallers" in the rankings with the risers being the first group I am going to spotlight.
In this article, I will feature some of the players who took the biggest jumps in their output from the 2018-2019 to the 2019-2020 seasons. I am using Basketball Monster's 9-category rankings for my comparisons here and obviously, there are some guys here who are better suited for points leagues or rotisserie leagues (or who have more value if you punt categories). It's natural that most of these guys are young players who saw big increases in playing time or saw their role grow in a big way with their teams.
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Emerging Stars = Early Round Picks
Jayson Tatum - SF/PF, Boston Celtics
2019 - 59th, 2020 - 13th
Tatum took a giant leap in his third season and it's hard to believe he's still only 21 years old. He set career highs in virtually every statistical category and finished with a 23-7-3 average in 66 games played. Tatum finished the fourth-best RAPM (regularized adjusted plus-minus) rating in the NBA last year behind only Giannis, LeBron, and Kawhi (that's some good company!)
Tatum was forced to carry the load for this young Celtics team at times this year as both Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward missed quite a few games between them. But the increased usage and minutes aren't the only reason for his emergence as a fantasy force. He made 2.9 threes per game on 7 attempts and shot it well from downtown at 40%. That's twice as many three-pointers made per game and his overall FG% held steady at 45% even with the increase in three-point attempts.
Tatum doesn't hurt you in any category and is a great source of points, threes, and steals. You don't need to punt any categories if you build around him in H2H leagues and he's a great source of counting stats for points and rotisserie leagues. Tatum's only going to continue to improve his offensive arsenal. He's a burgeoning star in this league and worthy of a second-round pick this season based on how he finished the 2019-2020 season.
John Collins - PF/C, Atlanta Hawks
2019 - 49th, 2020 - 7th
The Atlanta big man finished the season inside the top-10 by posting some big counting stats and being incredibly efficient while doing so. Collins finished 2020 with averages of 21.6 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks while shooting 58% from the field. He also shot 40% from deep (1.4 threes per game) and 80% from the line.
That kind of versatility from a big man is invaluable and Collins is the perfect big man to pair with guards if you don't want to have to punt FT%. Collins's offensive game is smooth and he's a great asset for FG% as he takes a lot of high percentage shots near the rim and converts them at a high rate. If he continues to take more threes then it might ding his FG% a bit, but we are still looking at a legit 7-category contributor here.
Collins only played 41 games this year. He missed 25 games at the beginning of the year due to suspension and then Atlanta didn't finish out their final games since they weren't invited to the bubble this summer. He's one of the most talented big men in the game right now and worthy of going early in drafts with his skill set and fantasy-friendly game.
Jusuf Nurkic - C, Portland Trailblazers
2019 - 37th, 2020 - 8th
I have to admit that I am a huge Nurk fan and have followed his career closely since he debuted with Denver back in 2014 as a 20-year old. He plays as hard as anyone and has really improved his offensive arsenal and passing over the years to really round out his game as he was more of a rebounder and shot-blocker when he was first drafted.
Nurk missed most of the season but was able to return to the team by the time the season resumed in July. In nine regular-season games in the bubble, Nurk put up some gaudy numbers, averaging 17-10-4 with 3.4 combined blocks/steals. He quickly supplanted Hassan Whiteside as the starting center and led the Blazers to a playoff birth. Nurkic and Whiteside even played minutes alongside each other during the series with the Lakers as the Blazers tried to figure out a way to combat the Lakers' size.
Nurkic was one of the most well-rounded centers in the game with positive contributions in every category other than threes and turnovers. He's established himself as a high-quality fantasy asset and I really want to see what he can do with a full season in 2021 in this up-tempo Portland offense with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. It was clear to me as I watched these bubble games that they were better when they played through Nurk and his career-high four assists per game reflect just how involved he was on offense on most possessions.
Biggest Jumps, Still Room for More
Trae Young - PG, Atlanta Hawks
2019 - 121st, 2020 - 19th
Young made one of the biggest jumps of any NBA player last season in his second year in the league. In 60 games, Trae averaged 29 points, 9.3 assists, and 3.4 threes per contest and had some massive games for the Hawks as they pushed the tempo most nights and offered very little resistance on defense.
Young's production is largely a result of the volume of shots he gets up every night, but I think he surprised a lot of people with how good of a passer he can be. The knock on Trae out of college and after his rookie season was that he was simply going to be a volume scorer who would hurt you with turnovers and poor field goal percentage more than he'd help elsewhere. But he improved both his FG% and FT% in 2019-2020 and made such leaps in scoring (19.9 to 29.6 PPG) that his value skyrocketed.
Obviously, he's a great asset to have in points leagues, but I think he's going to push into first-round pick conversation in H2H and roto formats, too. If you're looking to punt a category, Trae's value goes up when punting turnovers (8th overall) or FG% (10th). Atlanta seems very comfortable giving him the keys to the offense and he's developed a very nice pick and roll partnership with the aforementioned John Collins which should allow him to keep piling up assists.
Bam Adebayo - PF/C, Miami Heat
2019 - 116th, 2020 - 44th
Bam's first year in Miami without Whiteside was a resounding success and he quickly became a reliable fantasy asset with his well-rounded game. The Heat took the East by storm and went all the way to the finals on the strength of their solid defensive play and a balanced attack on offense. Adebayo was a huge part of that success as he averaged over five assists, ten boards, and a combined 2.4 blocks/steals in his first full season as a starter.
Bam will boost your team in all the obvious big man stat categories (blocks, boards, FG%) but his contributions in the assist department are what sets him apart from most other big men. To put his 5.1 assists per game into context, only one other center averaged more (Jokic) and some other guards who averaged around the same number of assists were Goran Dragic, Markelle Fultz, and Joe Ingles.
Bam should be poised for another big year and the only weaknesses in his fantasy output are three-pointers (he doesn't take them) and FT% (he shot only 69% last year on 5.3 attempts). If you want to build a punt FT% team (one of my favorite strategies over the years) then Bam's ranking actually jumps all the way to 22nd overall if you remove his negative effect on FT%.
Ricky Rubio - PG, Phoenix Suns
2019 - 128th, 2020 - 61st
Rubio's first year in the desert (or at least a new desert since he was coming from Utah) was a good one as he seemed to mesh well with Suns' star Devin Booker and sophomore center Deandre Ayton. Rubio is what I refer to as a "category specialist" in that he is really good at one category and not all that much else. With Ricky, it's always been about his passing and he finished fourth in the NBA with 8.8 assists. That number was a nice jump back up to what we saw from Rubio in Minnesota after he had seen his numbers dip down in the 5-6 assist range while in Utah.
The up-tempo style of play that Phoenix played this year really fits Rubio well and he had some big triple-doubles this season, especially when Devin Booker was shelved with injuries a few times. Rubio has been an uneven fantasy asset at times with his limited scoring ability, but he doesn't really hurt you anywhere else other than turnovers. If you are willing to punt TO's then Rubio's rank from last season jumps all the way up to 47th overall and I expect him to have another productive season with Phoenix this year. They won all their games in the bubble this summer and just barely missed the final seed in the Western Conference.
Jonathan Isaac - SF/PF, Orlando Magic
2019 - 106th, 2020 - 17th
We will have to wait until 2021-22 to see what Isaac is able to do as he is set to miss the entire 2020-2021 season after suffering a major knee injury in the bubble. But if you are in a dynasty league or league with an IR spot, it might be worth holding onto Isaac as he flashed some incredible upside when he was on the court and is one of the few guys in the league capable of putting up 5x5 games (think Shawn Marion or Andre Kirilenko back in the day).
More Fantasy Basketball Analysis
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