X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump - Sean Newcomb and Sean Manaea

Baseball games that count are once again upon us! Now that baseball is back and you're looking over your fantasy squads, you're probably a little light on pitching. If your format has an innings cap, it'll probably be harder to reach than you realize. If it doesn't, volume becomes the best way to accumulate more wins, quality starts, and strikeouts than your rivals.

Of course, you need the right volume plays to avoid destroying your ratios. Sean Newcomb has the potential to be a stalwart of your rotation all season long, while Sean Manaea produced a stellar outing on the second day of the season (7 2/3 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, ER).

We're still using ADP for those who like drafting late, but both of these guys went undrafted in some leagues. Check your waiver wire!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Sean Newcomb (SP, ATL) ADP: 317

Newcomb was all right as a 23-year old rookie last year, posting a 4.32 ERA (4.52 xFIP) and 23.7% K% over 100 IP. His performance at Triple-A last season (2.97 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 29.7% K% over 57 2/3 IP) and Double-A in 2016 (3.86 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 25.6% K%) is more indicative of the upside he could add to your roster.

Newcomb's arsenal generated plenty of whiffs at the MLB level last year. Everything is keyed off of a 94.2 mph heater that Newcomb throws 63.4% of the time. Its 55.5% Zone% last year did a nice job setting up his secondary offerings, while its 8.7% SwStr% was well above the league average for a vanilla fastball.

Newcomb's most used secondary offering was a curve thrown 21.9% of the time. It's almost never a strike (26.5% Zone%) and chased at an average clip (36.4%), but posted a 13.5% SwStr% and .191/.269/.266 line last year. A slight adjustment could probably boost its chase rate, making this breaking pitch a lethal weapon.

Next up was a change thrown 10.6% of the time. It's a classic wipeout pitch that makes up for a low Zone% (30.4%) with well above average SwStr% (19.6%) and chase (42.2%) rates. Newcomb sometimes misses his spot with it though, allowing opposing batters to slash .388/.400/.531 against his put away pitch last season.

Finally, Newcomb has a show-me slider thrown 4.2% of the time in 2017. The sample is too small to draw definitive conclusions, but its 17.1% SwStr%, 45.1% chase rate, and 30.4% Zone% suggest upside as an alternative put away pitch.

All of these pitches need more control to truly shine. Newcomb struggled with walks in his MLB debut (12.5% BB%), at Triple-A (13.3% BB% last year), and at Double-A (11.9% BB% in 2016), so the problem isn't new. You could have said the same thing about Robbie Ray at the onset of 2017, and he turned in an ace-like campaign last season. One adjustment is all it would take to put Newcomb on that level.

The Braves should be more competitive than they were last season, and Newcomb's .327 BABIP allowed should tumble now that Matt Kemp's -17 Outs Above Average have been jettisoned from the outfield. There is every possibility that rostering Newcomb blows up in your face, as command is hard to learn. However, the upside is massive if he figures it out. He's probably free, so why not roll the dice?

Verdict: Champ

 

Sean Manaea (SP, OAK) ADP: 260.6

Manaea was pedestrian in 2017, posting a 4.37 ERA (4.53 xFIP) in 158 2/3 IP. He was limited by a shoulder strain and illness, so last year's 20.2% K% may not accurately represent his true talent level. Indeed, his repertoire supports considerable strikeout upside.

Manaea features three pitches: a fastball, changeup, and slider. His heater lost considerable velocity last year, averaging 92.1 mph vs. 93.3 in 2016. The result was a .293/.370/.455 line against and 6.8% SwStr%, but there is hope. Its spin rate was 1,977 RPM in 2017, considerably below the league average range of 2,100-2,400. Low-spin fastballs are associated with ground balls and weak contact, a profile that could allow Manaea to last deep into games in an era where that's increasingly difficult to find.

Low-spin heaters do not lend themselves to strikeouts, but Manaea has secondary offerings for that. His change is a wipeout pitch, making up for a low 37.4% Zone% with a 17.2% SwStr% and 43.6% chase rate. His slider is an alternative put away pitch offering an 18.7% SwStr% and 41.4% chase rate to offset a 32.5% Zone%. Two deadly weapons make Manaea less predictable, giving him strikeout potential his surface stats don't suggest.

Oakland's infield defense also projects to be stronger than it was last year. First, they get a full season of Matt Chapman at 3B, where he somehow put up 19 DRS in just 727 defensive innings in 2017. First baseman Yonder Alonso (-9 DRS in 767 defensive innings) is also gone, replaced by Matt Olson. Olson only played 349 2/3 innings at 1B last year, but he put up a promising four DRS in the sample. Second baseman Jed Lowrie (-2 DRS) is mediocre while SS Marcus Semien (-9) is lousy, but the improved glovework at the corners should help Manaea reduce the .259 BABIP he allowed on grounders last year.

Manaea's 69.6% strand rate is also due for positive regression, especially if he can get his K% up. Oakland may not be an ideal spot for wins, but Manaea has the potential to throw 200+ quality innings for a fraction of the cost of an ace.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Miles Boykin1 hour ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson2 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield2 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum2 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George2 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes2 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton3 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell3 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney3 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole3 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes3 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Cedric Mullins3 hours ago

Goes Deep In Loss To Boston
Jonathan Drouin3 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey3 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev3 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun4 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Taijuan Walker4 hours ago

Blanks Rockies For Six Innings To Earn First Win
Tanner Houck4 hours ago

Picks Up No-Decision In Four-Inning Outing
Olli Määttä4 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Alex Bregman4 hours ago

Fills The Box Score In Win Over Orioles
Dylan Guenther4 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Jorge Polanco4 hours ago

Reinstated From Paternity List
Anthony Duclair4 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Carlos Rodriguez4 hours ago

Joining Brewers On Thursday
Alex Pietrangelo4 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk4 hours ago

Out On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu4 hours ago

"About A Week Away" From Taking Live At-Bats
Devin Williams4 hours ago

To Return From Paternity List On Friday
Jake Fraley4 hours ago

Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley Sitting Against A Lefty
Trey McBride5 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith5 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
Jeferson Quero5 hours ago

Set Back With Hamstring Injury
Eguy Rosario6 hours ago

Clears Waivers, Outrighted To Triple-A
Xavier Isaac6 hours ago

Rays Hopeful Xavier Isaac Will Return In A Couple Of Weeks
Angel Genao6 hours ago

Won't Return Until June
Austin Wells6 hours ago

Being Rested On Thursday
Paul Goldschmidt6 hours ago

Sitting In Finale Against Arizona
Masataka Yoshida6 hours ago

Not Ready For Rehab Assignment
Edward Cabrera6 hours ago

Goes Three Innings In Rehab Start
6 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Jake McCarthy7 hours ago

Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy Sitting On Thursday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
Ketel Marte7 hours ago

Sitting On Thursday After Signing Extension
New York Giants7 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Jake Meyers7 hours ago

Taking Seat For Third Straight Contest
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Luis Garcia7 hours ago

Shut Down With Elbow Inflammation
Washington Commanders8 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs8 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints8 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III11 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson12 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes12 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl12 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James13 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann14 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake14 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin14 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov15 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe15 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers23 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
23 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals23 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell24 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers24 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 day ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford1 day ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet1 day ago

Out Versus Utah
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm1 day ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Samuel Girard1 day ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta1 day ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz1 day ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
1 day ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
1 day ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF