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Michael Grennell takes a look back at the starting pitchers who saw the biggest boost in value based on improved earned run average (ERA) in 2018. These SP could be elite fantasy baseball values in 2019.
It was an impressive year for ERA in 2018, as MLB's combined 4.14 ERA was the lowest since league pitching recorded a 3.95 ERA in 2015. Just to give you an idea of how much pitching improved this year, all four of the pitchers that will be mentioned in this list finished in the top-10 in ERA among qualified pitchers, and only one of them had finished in the top-30 in 2017.
Now normally "rising" and "ERA" are not something you want to hear in the same sentence. For the purposes of this article though, I'm coming at it from the viewpoint of rising fantasy value, which means lower ERA. That being said, one of the big questions we'll be taking a look at with these guys is whether or not their 2018 performances will be repeatable or if they will be a flash in the pan.
We've got a pair of Cy Young winners and a couple veterans on the rise, so let's take a look at some of 2018's top pitchers.
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ERA Breakouts of 2018
Jacob deGrom (SP, NYM)
2017 ERA: 3.53, 2018 ERA: 1.70
One of only two qualified pitchers with a sub-2.00 ERA in 2018, it came as no surprise that deGrom snagged the NL Cy Young Award after posting a 1.70 ERA and 11.2 K/9 over a career-high 217 innings pitched. It was the lowest ERA among qualified pitchers since Zack Greinke's 1.66 ERA in 2015, as deGrom shaved nearly two full runs off his 2017 total. Looking at his numbers, the big key for deGrom's success was his ability to limit home runs at a career-low rate in 2018. After posting a 1.25 HR/9 rate and 16.1 percent HR/FB rate in 2017, deGrom saw his numbers drop to 0.41 HR/9 and a 6.3 percent HR/FB rate — both of which were his lowest marks since his rookie season in 2014.
Like most of the pitchers on this list, the main question is whether or not their 2018 marks are repeatable. It seems like deGrom's success this year could partially be contributed to his increased usage of his changeup, which accounted for a career-high 16.1 percent of his pitches thrown. Making more use of his off-speed pitches could also explain the drop in hard-hit ball percentage, as deGrom's 26.6 percent hard-hit ball rate was a drop of over five percent from 2017 and the second-lowest mark of his career. Advanced stats show that deGrom might have been pitching a little better than expected last year (1.99 FIP/2.60 xFIP/2.78 SIERA), but even if he does regress to around a 2.40 to 2.50 ERA, that's still a marked improvement from what deGrom has posted over the previous two seasons.
Blake Snell (SP, TB)
2017 ERA: 4.04, 2018 ERA: 1.89
The other qualified pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA, Snell broke out for a career year in his third season in the majors with his first All-Star selection, being named the AL Cy Young Award winner and finishing ninth in the AL MVP voting. Snell saw the largest drop in ERA out of the pitchers on this list, as he shaved 2.15 runs off his 2017 ERA. While DeGrom's success looks like it was tied to his decrease in home runs allowed, Snell's success appears to be tied to the fact that simply he was striking out a lot more batters in 2018. He posted a career-high 11.01 K/9 and 31.6 percent strikeout rate, while leading all qualified pitchers with an 88 percent left-on-base rate.
While Snell's season was very impressive (much to the delight of his fantasy owners) it appears he is one of the most likely pitchers on this list to regress significantly in 2019. Since 2015, there have been 23 qualifying pitchers who have posted a LOB percentage of over 80 percent. Of those, only three pitchers have done it multiple times, with Max Scherzer (2016, 2017, 2018) and Drew Pomeranz (2016, 2017) the only two to accomplish this mark in back-to-back seasons. And that's not taking into account that Snell's 88 percent LOB rate is the highest single-season mark of the last 30 years, surpassing Clayton Kershaw's 87.4 percent rate in 2017. The likelihood of significant negative regression is increased when you look at the spread between his 2018 ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA when compared to the spread in his first two seasons in the majors:
| Year | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3.54 | 3.39 | 4.35 | 4.53 |
| 2017 | 4.04 | 4.19 | 4.56 | 4.72 |
| 2018 | 1.89 | 2.95 | 3.16 | 3.30 |
Realistically fantasy owners should expect to see regression of Snell's ERA probably to around the 2.75 to 2.95 range, which while it's not going to be close to his mark this season, it will still be very good fantasy-wise.
Trevor Bauer (SP, CLE)
2017 ERA: 4.19, 2018 ERA: 2.21
While not on the level of Snell's season, Bauer had a breakout season of his own in 2018 with career-bests in ERA (2.21), K/9 (11.34), BB/9 (2.93) and HR/9 (0.46). On top of that, Bauer snapped a four-year streak in which he finished with an ERA higher than what advanced metrics would suggest he should have had. Bauer's drop in ERA seems to be also tied to his decreased home run rate — much like with deGrom — as he posted a career-low 6.2 percent HR/FB rate after posting a career-high 16.1 percent rate in 2017. Outside of a career-best 30.8 percent strikeout rate, pretty much every single advanced statistic of Bauer's this season closely matches what he has put up in previous seasons.
As far as Bauer putting together a similar ERA in 2019, that seems pretty unlikely at this point in time. His 2.44 FIP, 3.14 xFIP and 3.21 SIERA all suggest decline is due for Bauer, especially taking into account the fact his 2018 HR/FB rate was nearly five percent lower than his career average. This year Bauer had an ADP around the 13th round, placing him in the tier of starters like Rich Hill, Marcus Stroman and Johnny Cueto. Assuming Bauer regresses towards a 3.50 ERA, that plus his increased strikeout rate makes him worth consideration for drafting in the eighth, ninth or tenth rounds in 2019.
Mike Foltynewicz (SP, ATL)
2017 ERA: 4.79, 2018 ERA: 2.85
Rounding out our list is essentially the NL version of Diet Blake Snell, as Foltynewicz had a career-year albeit not on the same level as Snell. His 2.85 ERA was a decrease of 1.94 runs from his 2017 ERA and a 1.37 run decrease from his career mark. Like the other three guys on this list, Foltynewicz saw his home run rate drop significantly in 2018 with a career-low 0.84 HR/9 rate and a 9.6 percent HR/FB rate — the second-lowest mark of his career. Foltynewicz also relied more on his fastball and slider in 2018 than in previous years, which could have contributed to his career-high 27.2 percent strikeout rate and career-high 43.1 percent ground ball rate.
Out of the four pitchers on this list, Foltynewicz seems the least likely to come close to repeating his 2018 ERA. While his ground ball rate went up, his fly ball rate remained essentially the same with just a slight tick upwards, so his HR/FB rate will likely regress back to his career norm in 2019. His 3.37 FIP, 3.77 xFIP and 3.77 SIERA all fall closer to his 4.22 career ERA, and all his other numbers don't really show any signs of Foltynewicz being able to maintain this level of success. All that being said, Foltynewicz will still likely be worth owning in 2019, but fantasy owners should temper their expectations for him.
