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Cleveland Browns running back (RB) Nick Chubb is a fantasy football sleeper and ADP value for the 2018 season. Matt Terrelle breaks down Chubb's value in fantasy drafts.
We continue our preseason fantasy football sleeper series with a look at Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb.
While the first few rounds of every draft are essentially a wash-rinse-repeat of the consensus top-36, we can always count on those middle and late rounds to cement our confidence in this year's sleepers. The definition of the fantasy football sleeper has changed over the years, with the emergence of the industry itself on social media. The common sleeper today isn't a player that is being 'slept on' by the community. They're more like a player in a great spot to outperform his average draft position based on a plethora of factors.
Let's see why Chubb could fit that bill in upcoming fantasy drafts.
2018 Sleeper - Nick Chubb
The Cleveland Browns went all-in on overhauling their running back corps during the 2018 offseason. While pass-catcher extraordinaire Duke Johnson is still in town, long-time starter and bell cow Isaiah Crowell will now be suiting up for the New York Jets. The Cleveland backfield depth chart appeared simple back in March when the team signed free agent running back Carlos Hyde to a three-year, $15 million deal. It appeared at the time that Hyde would take over the first and second down and goal-line role vacated by Crowell. Then the Browns went and threw a monkey wrench into the situation by drafting Georgia running back Nick Chubb in the second round of the 2018 draft.
Of the three Cleveland running backs, Johnson's role is easiest to predict. He will continue to be prominently featured on third down and as a change of pace back. Hyde and Chubb's roles are much trickier to project. There are only 206 carries vacated by the departed Crowell. Not exactly a huge workload for one running back and definitely not enough for two backs to split. The low number of carries can mostly be blamed on poor game script (lest you forget, the Browns went 0-16 in 2017) and questionable play-calling. That problem should be rectified in 2018 with Hue Jackson turning play-calling over to Todd Haley. The ambiguity of the Cleveland backfield is showing up in current ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator, with both Hyde and Johnson coming off the board in the eighth round of 12-team drafts while Chubb is being selected in the ninth.
Chubb enters the NFL as one of the better running back prospects in several years. If it wasn't for a brutal knee injury suffered during his sophomore season, he would likely be mentioned in the same breath as Saquon Barkley as a prospect. He is an impressive specimen and projects as a bell cow, workhorse back in the NFL. Chubb is athletic and fast for a man his size, posting a 98th percentile SPARQ-x score, an 89th percentile speed score and a 91st percentile burst score on PlayerProfiler.com. At 227 pounds, the man is built to handle the wear and tear of the running back position. Furthermore, the Browns used the third pick in the second round on Chubb, which gives him plenty of draft capital.
While he will open the season mired in a timeshare with veteran Carlos Hyde, Chubb sets up as an interesting sleeper and a player worth targeting by those who deploy a zero-RB strategy in 2018 drafts. Hyde hasn't exactly been the picture of health over his NFL career, having missed at least two games in three of his four seasons. Chubb has a few paths to fantasy relevance in 2018. First, Hyde could get injured, which would open the door for Chubb to assume almost all of the early down work along with the goal line carries. Injuries aside, Chubb is talented enough that he could simply outplay Hyde and force himself into the lead back role during the season. The contract the Browns gave Hyde looks like a significant investment but they can simply cut the veteran after the conclusion of the season if Chubb makes him expendable. Chubb is clearly the team's running back of the future and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the team turn the starting role over to the rookie at some point during the season.
The Browns' offense has a chance to be one of the most improved units in the NFL this season. They will have Tyrod Taylor at quarterback after an offseason trade with the Buffalo Bills. Taylor instantly becomes one of the best quarterbacks the Browns have had under center since they returned to the NFL in 1999. They also added stud slot receiver Jarvis Landry to a receiving corps that already will (hopefully) have Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman. While the team lost future Hall of Fame left tackle Joe Thomas, the offensive line is still solid. The Cleveland offense should be able to move the ball down the field into the red zone this season, which would open up a multitude of goal-line carries for Browns' running backs. Chubb is a talented player who could finish the season as an RB1 in fantasy. A player with that upside is an excellent investment in the ninth round of fantasy drafts.
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