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Miami Dolphins WR Kenny Stills is a sleeper and draft day ADP value for 2018 fantasy football leagues. Martin Konstantinov explains why Stills is a player to target in redraft leagues.
When you get to the late rounds of fantasy football drafts, you are chasing upside. You already have your starting rotation of players in the fold; now all that is left is to find that league-winning talent late in your drafts that nobody sees coming.
These value picks serve two purposes: 1) they add depth to your roster and provide valuable cover should your earlier picks falter or get injured and 2) they have the upside to become top-level options in your roster as the season progresses.
One player who is sitting at an incredible value right now that will surely outperform his average draft position (ADP) is Miami Dolphins wide receiver Kenny Stills. Stills is a deep threat receiver who has performed well for his team in the last few seasons and has cemented himself as a good depth wide receiver for fantasy purposes.
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Stills the One
Pros
After having some successful years for the New Orleans Saints following his rise to the starting rotation after being an undrafted free agent, Stills was shipped off to Miami and largely disappointed in his first season (2015). However, the speedster would develop into the team's best deep threats over the next two seasons, logging 726 and 847 yards in 2016 and 2017, respectively. With his yards on the rise, Stills has made the most of his opportunities for touchdowns and has 15 scores over the past two seasons. It's clear that the Dolphins view Stills as a key offensive weapon who should be given his fair share of the football.
Additionally, Stills played all of 2017 with Jay Cutler at quarterback - now, he gets to work with Ryan Tannehill once again, who many can agree is an upgrade. Although Tannehill is not known for his deep throwing, we have seen a resurgence of the deep ball from game-managing quarterbacks (Alex Smith). Additionally, Tannehill will probably have a short leash with the coaching staff and will have to prove his worth to the team in order to be considered the locked-in starter. With Miami slated to face many negative game scripts, expect Tannehill to throw deep to Stills more often than not as he tries to get his team back in games.
Finally, there is the departure of Jarvis Landry to discuss. Landry had 161 targets last year, and although the team signed Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson, those targets will get spread throughout the offense. With Devante Parker failing to secure the number one role for the team as a wide receiver, expect Stills to improve on his own impressive 105 targets (with Landry in the lineup) from 2017. Stills may end up seeing around 120-130 targets when all is said and done, with a mix of possession routes and deep throws to add to his yardage and scoring outputs.
Cons
First off, Miami is not expected to be one of the better teams in the league for the upcoming season. With the team potentially facing negative game scripts and being run by game manager Ryan Tannehill, it will be interesting to see how they spread the ball around and how much of that goes to Stills. If Stills is able to work his game around more than just the deep ball, he could become the number one weapon in an offense - regardless of how good a team is, having their top option is definitely not the worst thing you can do as a fantasy owner.
The presence of former first round pick Devante Parker is also worrisome for Stills's fantasy prospects, but last year Parker still saw 96 targets when healthy and was on pace for over 100 on the season. Even if Parker increases his target share significantly from last year, there should still be additional looks for Kenny Stills due to his reliability and presence as one of the top two receiving options on the team.
Analysis
Even though there are some aspects of Stills' situation that make it less-than-100% certain that he will be a reliable fantasy wide receiver, the value that you get when you draft Stills is unbelievable. The wide receiver is currently going 139th overall at the top of the 12th round. That is simply unbelievable for a wide receiver who finished 26th last year in standard formats. With the expected improvements to Stills's stats, you could realistically see him crack WR2 territory in the upcoming season.
According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Stills is currently being drafted as the 53rd wide receiver off the board. The discrepancy between his 2017 finish, 2018 prospects, and 2018 draft position is so massive that it is hard not to see the tremendous value you are getting when you select Stills. With a low likelihood of busting due to his established presence within the offense, Stills has all of the talent and opportunity in the world to return low-end WR2 numbers on a weekly basis and become more than a boom-or-bust WR3 option. His floor is what we saw two years ago - around 45 receptions for 750 yards and between seven and nine touchdowns. His ceiling is finally breaking the 1,000-yard barrier and approaching double digit touchdowns. It's clear to see why he is a fantasy sleeper and immense value at the position for this upcoming draft season.
