RADIO
We continue our preseason fantasy football sleeper series with a look at Tampa Bay Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin.
While the first few rounds of every draft are essentially a wash-rinse-repeat of the consensus top-36, we can always count on those middle and late rounds to cement our confidence in this year's sleepers. The definition of the fantasy football sleeper has changed over the years, with the emergence of the industry itself on social media. The common sleeper today isn't a player that is being 'slept on' by the community. They're more like a player in a great spot to outperform his average draft position based on a plethora of factors.
Let's see why Godwin could fit that bill in upcoming fantasy drafts.
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2018 Sleeper - Chris Godwin
I will preface this by stating that Chris Godwin will need either an injury to DeSean Jackson or Dirk Koetter to stop being an idiot for this to materialize. Jameis Winston cannot support three fantasy-viable WRs.
Godwin averaged 15.7 yards per reception in college and scored 11 touchdowns as a junior at Penn State, his final collegiate year. He was drafted in the third round in 2017 behind some very questionable prospects. 10 WRs were taken before Godwin and I would argue that Godwin is better than all of them. In fact, I think Godwin will ultimately be the best WR from that 2017 class.
Godwin is also one of the most athletic players in the league with a 95th percentile SPARQ-x score and upper third workout metrics across the board. In addition to having a superb athletic profile, we've already seen what he can do with a decent target share. In four games where Godwin saw at least six targets (he saw no more than three in any others), here were his lines: 5-68 (10 targets), 5-68 (six targets), 3-98 (six targets), 7-111-1 (12 targets).
Jameis Winston is not a good quarterback. However, that doesn't mean he isn't good for fantasy. His lack of concern for turning the ball over and tendency to throw the ball to his intended receiver regardless of whether that player is open, while it will hinder his WRs' efficiency, is good for their overall volume. Efficiency is great, but in fantasy, we are far better off chasing the volume. The Bucs do project to have a strong offense this season. Combine that with their subpar defense and lackluster running game and this is a team that should be throwing the ball a bunch.
In each year of Winston's career, his pass attempts have gone up. He attempted 535 passes as a rookie, 567 as a sophomore, and in 2017, his third year, he attempted 442 passes in 13 games. If you add Ryan Fitzpatrick's pass attempts to Winston's, it totals 605 pass attempts. If we assume another 600 attempts, we can attribute about 140 to Mike Evans, 110 to the TEs, and about 100 to the RBs. That leaves the remaining 250 targets to be distributed between Jackson, Adam Humphries, and Godwin. You have to assume a considerable reduction in Humphries' 83 targets. I would drop that down to about 50. This is where the competition between Jackson and Godwin comes in. DJax saw 90 targets in 14 games last season. Even if we assign all of Humphries' decrease in targets to Godwin, that would get him at about 90. While that will be enough to be worth rostering, it would not be enough to support the breakout I want to see.
Godwin's sleeper appeal stems from the fact that all he needs is a chance. I have no doubts that if Godwin saw a legitimately NFL WR2 target share, he would be, at minimum a fantasy WR2. His ADP is in the double-digit rounds so he costs nothing to acquire. He is the exact type of player you should be targeting with your late round picks. Godwin is a talented player with a very realistic path to WR2/3 value, while, at the same time, you will also be able to easily assess whether he can realize that value. If not, you can drop him.
