X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Domingo Santana Rankings Debate: Comparing RotoBaller's Rankers

2018 fantasy baseball rankings analysis on Milwaukee Brewers OF Domingo Santana. Jeff Kahntroff and Nick Mariano debate his ADP value for 2018 drafts.

We continue our series of articles debating the overall ranking of some of the most fantasy-relevant players of the 2018 baseball season with a player that may be on the move soon. Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Domingo Santana is an early pick sure to garner a lot of attention after his breakout season.

RotoBaller's expert writers have come up with our consensus rankings for mixed leagues, but that doesn't mean we agreed on everything. In this space, we'll hear from rankers with the biggest differences of opinion on a well-known player and have them defend their position against each other.

We press on with one of 2017's waiver wire darlings, Milwaukee Brewers OF stud Domingo Santana. Jeff Kahntroff will defend his position that Santana is a top-50 pick, while Nick Mariano holds that he doesn't belong in the top 75. Let's get ready to rumble!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2018 Draft Rankings Debate - Domingo Santana

Rank Tier Player Position Kyle Nick Pierre Jeff Harris Bill
62 5 Domingo Santana OF 49 87 60 48 70 66

 

Jeff Kahntroff's Ranking: #48 overall

My initial Domingo Santana ranking was based on his projected role as an everyday outfielder for the Brewers. With their recent acquisitions creating a logjam of sorts, and the trade rumors brewing, his ranking is subject to change. Milwaukee is an ideal place for Santana, and thus a move would likely lower his ranking. However, for purposes of this debate, I am considering Santana an everyday player for the Brewers.

Last year Santana posted a .278/30/88/85/15 line in just 151 games (only 139 starts). Those numbers placed him as the 48th player in 5x5 leagues according to baseballmonster.com.  I ranked him at exactly 48th because I think his expected value equals his 2017 performance. Even though he has some red flags, those are offset by his room to outperform his 2017.

Room for Upside

Santana is only 25 years old. The Brewers added Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, in what should be an improved lineup.  Santana should increase his counting stats due to additional playing time, as he started only 139 games last year. Further, he clobbered 30 homers despite a low fly ball rate. If he starts hitting the ball in the air more, his fantasy value could improve.

The Red Flags

Santana had some 2017 stats that would be red flags for most. However, a closer look reveals they may not be as ominous as they first appear:

  • His .363 BABIP: While a .363 BABIP leading to a .278 average despite a 29.3% k-rate might scream regression, Santana has posted a high BABIP throughout his major and minor league careers. Why should that change now?
  • His 30.9% HR/FB rate: Despite this extremely high rate, Santana’s career rate is 29.3% in an admittedly small sample. However, even if his HR/FB ratio declines, Santana has the ability to significantly improve his fly ball rate. Thus, he could maintain his lofty home run total, or even improve it.
  • His Major Jump in Stolen Bases: Santana stole 15 bases in 2017 after only stealing two in 2016. This risk is real. While he has speed, is only 25, and Milwaukee has shown a willingness to run, there is a decent chance this number takes a hit. His stolen base totals in the minors were not that high, and one would not expect him to be getting faster.

Conclusion

Santana finished as the 48th-ranked player last year. While his lofty BABIP and HR/FB ratios on their surface would seem to indicate a regression candidate, a further look indicates that may not be the case. These risks are offset by a potential for more playing time, a potential to hit more balls in the air, a history of high BABIP, and youth. Because there is upside and downside pulling evenly in each direction, maintaining him at his 2017 finish seems reasonable. If it appears that he will not have an everyday role or he gets traded to a worse situation, I will lower his rank accordingly. While some may ding him for his lack of defensive abilities, that only presents a buying opportunity for you as a savvy fantasy owner.

 

Nick Mariano's Ranking: #87 overall

Admittedly, a portion of my bearishness is based on the current playing-time fiasco in Milwaukee. I really don't think that Santana ends up getting squeezed from Milwaukee's lineup if the status quo holds, but I have to bake in that either Milwaukee is somehow dumb enough to only play him four or five times a week, or more likely, that he gets traded. What if he goes to a crummy offensive environment? Sure, Cleveland is a fun, fitting target, but we can't just put that down in pen. I don't like risk early. And while he didn't draw 150-plus starts, he still got over 600 plate appearances, so I'm not in on projecting more volume either. But let's just get into it already:

Can the Homers Last?

I realize I was basically handed a blueprint for what I should say by Jeff in his "red flags" section, but I don't think the massive HR/FB rate was painted quite red enough. Santana's 30.9% HR/FB mark was the third-highest in the Majors, bested only by Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge (pray that the Bleacher Creatures all own padded gloves). Let's go to Baseball Savant and sort by "Average Exit Velocity on Fly Balls and Line Drives" (minimum 100 batted ball events) and you'll see Judge and Stanton at Nos. 1 and 2, but where's Domingo? Well, he's down at No. 122. Danny Santana had a higher mark, so Control+F won't even make it simple. Given Santana's low fly-ball rate over his first two seasons, I contend that it's far more likely that he repeats what he's done, posting a solid-but-not-incredible exit velocity, which brings that HR/FB rate down and limits him to say 23-25 homers. That's solid, but not astounding.

Why Pay For Ceiling?

Alex Chamberlain is going to kick down my door and wag his finger at me for going on like this, and we're piggybacking off of the prior point a bit, but I believe that we just saw his 5x5 ceiling. Not necessarily his power, average, or speed ceiling, but the combination of all three. Even that's stretching it, because I cannot see his HR/FB rate, BABIP, or stolen-base rate climbing given his gaudy peripherals. I realize sprint speed isn't everything, just like judging a running back or wide receiver on 40-yard dashes is getting old, but Santana's 27 feet/second sprint speed was just 37th out of 51 right fielders. Guys like Michael Saunders and Hunter Renfroe scored higher, which doesn't line up with this guy regularly scooping 15 bags a year. Yes, I know Saunders stole 21 bases in 2012, but '17 Saunders definitely did not. I will grant that Milwaukee's aggression on the base paths is a gigantic factor, but I'm wary of over-projecting beyond raw talent and many are talking about his speed like it's a given.

The Swing

It's extremely tempting to take a young bat on the rise and project growth. In doing so, we also tend to (rather subconsciously) raise the floor too far. Santana is exciting and has a swing that delivers liners a la Daniel Murphy, but his contact rates mirror those of Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, Mark Reynolds, Chris & Khris Davis, etc. I'm not here to knock whatever's working for him, but he's skating on thinner ice than folks may realize. We're not ranking for points leagues so I realize K's may not scare anyone away, especially in this era, but his 70.3% contact rate and 51.9% O-Contact rate were both respectively the ninth-worst marks in their category for a qualified hitter in 2017. The good news about his lesser uppercut is that he rarely ever pops up (his 2.1% IFFB rate was fifth lowest in '17) and he can generate high BABIPs. He makes loud enough contact to be a force, but I think the magnitude of his pop has been overstated. Looking at the hard-hit rate is good. Checking on specific exit velocity on fly balls and liners is better. And if he does have to leave the Brew Crew, he'll most likely take a hit not just on his power profile, but the number of steal opportunities as well. So yeah, I'm letting other folks draft him high this season.

 

More 2018 MLB Ranking Debate Articles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Corey Seager3 hours ago

Leaves Early On Tuesday With Hamstring Tightness
George Klassen3 hours ago

Strikes Out Nine In Latest Double-A Start
Michael Pittman Jr.3 hours ago

Back Injury Is In The Past
Marcelo Mayer4 hours ago

With Fourth Straight Multi-Hit Effort On Tuesday
Bailey Falter4 hours ago

Leaves Outing On Tuesday With Back Tightness
George Pickens4 hours ago

Steelers Appear Unlikely To Trade George Pickens
Jaylen Warren4 hours ago

Steelers Believe Jaylen Warren Can Be Their RB1
Leodalis De Vries4 hours ago

Hits For Cycle, Collects Eight RBI On Tuesday
Jeferson Quero5 hours ago

To Resume Baseball Activities
Andrew Novak5 hours ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Roman Anthony5 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Soreness
Ben Griffin5 hours ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Nick Pivetta6 hours ago

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Brandon Marsh6 hours ago

Nearing Rehab Assignment
Mitchell Parker6 hours ago

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings
Javier Assad6 hours ago

Exits Rehab Start With Injury
Pablo López6 hours ago

Pablo Lopez Nearing Return
Cristopher Sánchez7 hours ago

Cristopher Sanchez Exits With Forearm Soreness
Jaylen Warren7 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Steelers
Luis Rengifo8 hours ago

Out After Having Root Canal
Tyler Matzek8 hours ago

Joins Big-League Roster
Chandler Simpson8 hours ago

Back In Leadoff Spot On Tuesday
Wade Miley8 hours ago

Starting His Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Sam Moll8 hours ago

Starting Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Tyler Stephenson8 hours ago

Starting Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Marcus Semien9 hours ago

Dropped To Five-Hole On Tuesday
Cody Poteet9 hours ago

Placed On 15-Day Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation
Will Levis9 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Traded
Houston Texans9 hours ago

Texans Considering Trading Up
Cleveland Browns9 hours ago

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah Appears At Offseason Program
Thomas Detry9 hours ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Christian McCaffrey9 hours ago

Has No Restrictions
Terry Rozier9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard9 hours ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum10 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Robert MacIntyre10 hours ago

Returns To Zurich Classic With High Hopes
Derek Forbort10 hours ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry10 hours ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Shane Lowry10 hours ago

Returning To Zurich Classic With Red-Hot Teammate
Luke Glendening10 hours ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee10 hours ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass10 hours ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon10 hours ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Luke Hughes10 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Matthew Tkachuk11 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Brock Purdy12 hours ago

Reports For OTA's Amid Contract Discussions
George Kittle12 hours ago

Skips Start Of 49ers Offseason Program
Dallas Cowboys12 hours ago

Stephon Gilmore Spotted At Cowboys Facility On Tuesday
James Cook13 hours ago

Not At Start Of Voluntary OTAs
Kirk Cousins13 hours ago

Reports To Voluntary OTA's
Cam Ward13 hours ago

Titans Officially Staying Put At No. 1 Overall Pick, Expected To Select Cam Ward
14 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty's Tackle-Breaking Ability Sets Him Apart
14 hours ago

Jalen Milroe Not A Lock To Go In First Round
Denver Broncos14 hours ago

Broncos Willing To Trade Up In This Week's Draft
Indianapolis Colts14 hours ago

Colts Searching For A Tight End That Can Do It All
Daniel Jones14 hours ago

Colts Expect Both Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Help Them In 2025
14 hours ago

Giants High On Jaxson Dart
Rory McIlroy15 hours ago

Making Second Appearance At Zurich Classic
15 hours ago

Saints Not Expected To Take Shedeur Sanders
Nikola Jokić18 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
Kawhi Leonard18 hours ago

Leads Clippers To Game 2 Victory
Jalen Brunson18 hours ago

Leads All Scorers With 37 Points In Monday's Loss
Tobias Harris18 hours ago

Notches Double-Double In Game 2 Win
Cade Cunningham18 hours ago

Leads Pistons To Victory With 33 Points
Rob Dillingham18 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Maxi Kleber18 hours ago

Remains Out For Game 2
GG Jackson II19 hours ago

Available For Tuesday
Evan Bouchard19 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Assists In Postseason Opener
Connor McDavid19 hours ago

Racks Up Four Points In Losing Effort
Nick Taylor19 hours ago

Can Surprise Again In The Big Easy
Phillip Danault19 hours ago

Nets Two Goals In Game 1 Victory
Adam Hadwin19 hours ago

Expects To Contend At Zurich Classic
Mark Scheifele19 hours ago

Bags Two Points In Monday's Win
Alejandro Tosti19 hours ago

Could Get Hot Again In New Orleans
Lane Hutson19 hours ago

Posts Two Assists In Playoff Debut
Joe Highsmith19 hours ago

Struggling As New Orleans Approaches
Dylan Strome19 hours ago

Registers Three Assists In Overtime Win
Karl Vilips19 hours ago

Steps Up To Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Alex Ovechkin19 hours ago

Scores First Playoff Overtime Goal
Michael Thorbjornsen19 hours ago

Ready To Make Waves In New Orleans
Braden Schneider20 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Tom Hoge20 hours ago

Ready To Make Some Birdies In New Orleans
Billy Horschel20 hours ago

Has Game To Win Third Zurich Classic
Aaron Gordon1 day ago

Cleared For Action
Ousmane Dieng1 day ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Love1 day ago

Remains Away From Team
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Hurts Ankle Monday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Officially Listed As Questionable For Game 2
Isaiah Stewart1 day ago

Ruled Out For Game 2 Against Knicks
Trent Frederic1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Monday
Leon Draisaitl1 day ago

Returns To Oilers Lineup For Postseason Opener
Jake Walman1 day ago

Available For Game 1
Brett Kulak1 day ago

Ready To Play Monday
Aliaksei Protas1 day ago

Expected To Return During First-Round Series
Isaiah Stewart2 days ago

Iffy For Monday Night
Aaron Gordon2 days ago

Listed As Probable For Game 2
Jaylen Brown3 days ago

Not Expected To Be Limited On Sunday
Ryan Blaney6 days ago

Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF