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Steve Rebeiro explains why San Francisco quarterback (QB) Brian Hoyer may flourish as a fantasy option with the 49ers. He could be a sleeper according to ADP.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone into a full rebuild. They've purged their roster of last years quarterbacks and brought in a new regime with General Manager John Lynch and Head Coach Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan brought with him a quarterback from his year in Cleveland to be the starter, journeyman Brian Hoyer.
Lets be clear about something: Brian Hoyer isn't a great quarterback. He might not even be a good one. But experienced fantasy players know that you don't have to be good to put up points. Brian Hoyer is going to fall into that category this season.
He may be an afterthought in re-draft leagues, but there's a lot to like here from a fantasy standpoint, believe it or not. Let me explain exactly why Brian Hoyer figures to be a fantasy football sleeper in 2017.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Reasons to own Hoyer in 2017
Kyle Shanahan
Kyle Shanahan is a quarterback whisperer. He sent Matt Schaub to a Pro Bowl. He made Robert Griffin III the Rookie of the Year. He turned Matt Ryan into an MVP. Most importantly, he made Brian Hoyer look like a viable starting quarterback.
Shanahan knows how to make an offense work. He's led top five offenses for three different teams. Even though the 49ers offense is one of the least talented groups in the league, you have to bet on Shanahan to make something work here. He's just too good of an offensive mind to not find a way for this group to be productive.
Schaub and Ryan had the best years of their careers under Shanahan. RG3 only ever looked like a viable NFL quarterback under Shanahan. It isn't unrealistic to expect him to make Hoyer look like a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL. He's going to get plenty of chances.
There are a few more weapons here to play with than you would think. Carlos Hyde is the obvious one. As the best player on the offense, defenses will be focusing on Hyde and relieving the coverage for Hoyer and the passing game. The 49ers also added Pierre Garcon at receiver, who is a Shanahan favorite from his days in Washington. They have another weapon in tight end Vance McDonald.
While they don't necessarily have the talent to compete, they do have the talent to put together some productive offense. And even in games where they're getting blown out, this doesn't mean that Hoyer's stats will be doomed. In fact, they'll likely improve from a fantasy perspective thanks to...
Garbage Time
Sweet, sweet garbage time. There's a reason a quarterback like Blake Bortles has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback in back-to-back years. It certainly isn't because he's a talented quarterback. It's because of a vast quantity of garbage time. Hoyer figures to play a similar role to what Bortles has the last couple of years, which actually bodes well for his fantasy value.
Bortles managed to finish fourth overall in quarterback scoring in 2015 and eighth in 2016 despite playing on an abysmal Jacksonville team. His best game of the year was a result of three second half touchdowns after the Jags were down 27-0 against the Titans. He tossed two touchdowns late in a blowout loss to the Chargers early in the season. Quarterbacks on bad teams tend to rack up late game points quite often.
The 49ers are bad. Their defense was historically bad last season, giving up the most points, total yards, and rushing yards per game last season. In fact, they allowed the most rushing yards per game in a season since the 2010 Buffalo Bills. The new regime will move the team in the right direction, but this isn't an overnight fix.
Bad teams play from behind a lot. When you play from behind, the best option for quick scoring is by airing it out. Shanahan likes to air out the ball and the 49ers will be playing from behind a ton this year. Hoyer is going to get plenty of time to pad the stats, which is great for fantasy owners.
A great coach packaged with a lot of garbage time potential is not a reason to make a guy your starter by any means. But for a backup? Especially in a deeper league? A guy like Hoyer with these two factors is a perfect fit on any fantasy roster.
Hoyer is a deep sleeper for 2017. He's a guy you should target in the late rounds of a deeper league draft as your backup quarterback, especially if you have an established starter. In MFL10 leagues, he's absolutely worth a shot as your backup QB. He's the kind of guy you can throw out there and expect to get you some points, whether he plays bad or not. It won't be for a lack of opportunity.
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