🖥 CYBER WEEK - TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE CYBER
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

2016 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Lamar Miller vs. Jamaal Charles

Bill Dubiel and Pierre Camus compare Lamar Miller and Jamaal Charles to declare which player is worth targeting as a higher fantasy football draft pick for 2016.

It's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy football drafts, and Rotoballer is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

Our first article comes from lead columnist Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs) and featured writer Pierre Camus (@pfunk00). Bill will defend Lamar Miller and his prospects in the newly revamped Houston Texans offense while Pierre extols the virtues of perennial fantasy superstar Jamaal Charles as he returns from another ACL injury.

Feel free to reach out to either or both with questions or opinions.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium MLB Subscription for only $1.99 per week. We have all the tools to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Sleeper Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, PLUS Daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

 

Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - Bill Dubiel

I must have used the hashtag #FREELAMAR a few dozen times last year. It killed me to watch him receive 12 or fewer carries in nine of the 16 games that the Dolphins played last year.

9 Times

Despite his criminal under-use, Miller still managed to grind out 872 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground (good for a healthy 4.5 yards per carry) and another 397 yards and two touchdowns through the air (8.4 yards per reception). Looking back at his career numbers, things get even better, albeit more tragic. In 60 total games across the last three seasons, Miller has averaged a shade under 4.6 YPC, but has been granted an average of 12.23 rushing attempts per game. That number comes despite Miller playing in all 16 games in each season. So far, and I'm literally knocking on wood as I write this, he has proven himself to be incredibly durable and incredibly effective, and there's no reason for either to change as he enters his age-25 season.

On a happier note, Miller traded in the South Beach teal (that's teal, right?) and orange for Houston red and blue, and I for one could not be happier. The Texans finished 2015 with the fifth-most rushing attempts, although they were only able to parlay that into the 15th-most rushing yards thanks to the general ineptitude of their backfield options after Arian Foster was lost for the season (3.7 YPC as a team). Trade in Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes' sub-par skill sets for a player of Lamar Miller's caliber, and you're in business.

Houston head coach Bill O'Brien is a lot of things, but he's no fool--he knows how to use a feature back. In his first year as the Texans' head coach, Arian Foster was able to pick up 1,246 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground in just 13 games played. Add to that the 327 yards and five touchdowns he had through the air and you have a top-five fantasy running back. Oh, by the way, the Texans finally (probably) have a legitimate quarterback, and with stud rookie Will Fuller joining the dynamic DeAndre Hopkins on the outside, there should be even more room to run for Miller than there was for Foster.

If I need to spell it out, I will. Miller's talent + legitimate usage = fantasy gold. He currently has an average ADP of 17 according to FantasyPros.com, which would make him the eighth running back off the board. That slots him behind Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Charles and Devonta Freeman, all of whom I firmly believe Miller will finish ahead of this year. This dude is an explosion waiting to happen, and I think once Bill O'Brien lets him off the leash he's going to win quite a few fantasy championships for owners smart enough to snag him.

 

Jamaal Charles (RB, KC) - Pierre Camus

Jamaal Charles a second-round pick? To channel my inner Nell Carter, "gimme a break!" Charles has been a bona fide top-five pick each of the last three years and has justified those rankings by finishing as a top-10 RB five times before the age of 30.

tumblr_mlzwnemLVg1qzsq0xo1_500

The last time Charles was available this late in drafts was 2012, after missing nearly the entire 2011 season with an ACL tear. Four years later and here we are again, as he looks to rebound from another ACL injury. Jumpy fantasy owners will likely scream "injury risk!" and avoid Charles altogether in favor of shiny new toys like David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott. One look at Charles' track record should encourage cooler heads to prevail, however, as he is as close to a sure thing at the running back position as you can get.

Jamaal Charles has a career average of 5.5 yards per carry. He has never finished a season with an average under 5.0 YPC. Never. When he is healthy, he is almost guaranteed to break 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. A comparable player like Lamar Miller has barely cracked 1,000 yards once in his career, while Charles has done so in each of the five full seasons he has played. Simply glossing over those numbers to take a chance on an unproven commodity doesn't seem like sound fantasy strategy. As they say, you can't win your draft in the first round, but you sure can lose it.

What about Charcandrick West? He looked good last year! And that other guy they have... they'll replace Charles.  West's success (and to some extent Spencer Ware) is more a result of the opportunities in Kansas City's running attack than superior talent. West helped fantasy owners for a few weeks, but he only averaged 4.0 Y/A. Ware actually finished with a superior rushing average (5.51) and six TD, but he did the bulk of his damage in two starts against San Diego and Buffalo and did little after that. Neither are future superstars or serious threats to the starting job of a stud like Charles.

But what about injuries? I'm scared to draft him! The truth is as soon as Charles hits the field, he is just as likely as any other player to suffer the exact same injury. Charles has been declared ready for training camp and should be good to go for Week 1. While other RB will be getting their feet wet in the league or learning a new offense, Charles will already be ripping off long runs against the Chargers. Going back to 2012, the year after his last ACL tear, here's how he finished that season: 1,745 total yards, 94.3 rushing yards per game and a Pro Bowl selection. Wanna bet against him this year?

There is no reason Charles isn't worthy of a late first-round pick. Sure, you can take the shiny new toy and hope that it works better. Just don't start crying when you see old reliable running right by it though.

 

WHO WON? WHO DO YOU WANT TO SEE NEXT? TWEET @ROTOBALLER AND LET US KNOW!

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]


Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Draymond Green

Questionable With Midfoot Sprain
Jimmy Butler III

Day-To-Day As Warriors Prepare For Cleveland
Mikko Rantanen

Picks Up Three Points Against Sharks
Kyle Connor

Scores in Fourth Consecutive Game
Beckett Sennecke

Notches Two Points in Friday's Win
Ryan Leonard

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Friday
Carter Hart

Day-to-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Brayden Point

Questionable for Saturday
Victor Hedman

Expected to Return Saturday
Byron Buxton

Twins Not Planning to Trade Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton
Patrick Williams

Dalen Terry Available Versus Pacers
Coby White

Returns With Minutes Restriction Friday
Ayo Dosunmu

Out Friday Against Pacers
Zach Collins

Available for Season Debut Friday
Robert Williams III

Donovan Clingan Out, Robert Williams III in for Portland Friday
Evan Mobley

Ready to Play Friday
Kristaps Porzingis

Coming Off the Bench Friday
Spencer Jones

Available Against Hawks
OG Anunoby

Returns to Knicks LIneup Friday
Tre Mann

Misses Third Consecutive Game
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Available Friday
LaMelo Ball

Upgraded to Available
Brandon Miller

Returns to Action Friday
Steven Adams

Alperen Sengun Out Friday, Steven Adams Starting
Ozzy Wiesblatt

to Miss 8-10 Weeks With Upper-Body Injury
Jalen Johnson

Returning To Atlanta's Lineup On Friday
Pierre-Olivier Joseph

Out With Illness Friday
Evander Kane

Doubtful for Friday
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Questionable For Friday Night
Conor Garland

Back From Two-Game Absence Friday
Tyler Herro

Sitting Out Of Friday's Game
Thomas Harley

Could Be an Option Next Week
Daniel Gafford

Out For Friday Night's Game
Mikael Granlund

Returning From 10-Game Absence Friday
P.J. Washington

Won't Suit Up Friday Night
John Carlson

Misses Second Consecutive Game Friday
Rome Odunze

has Fractured Foot, Labeled Week-to-Week
Sauce Gardner

Ruled Out for Sunday
Petr Yan

Looks To Reclaim Bantamweight Belt
Merab Dvalishvili

Set For His Fourth Title Defense
Joshua Van

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Aaron Jones Sr.

Cleared to Play in Week 14
Chris Olave

Listed as Questionable for Week 14
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fifth Title Defense At UFC 323
Tatsuro Taira

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alvin Kamara

Ruled Out for Sunday
Brandon Moreno

Searches For His Third Win In A Row
Rome Odunze

Ruled Out for Week 14
Payton Talbott

A Favorite At UFC 323
Henry Cejudo

Set For His Retirement Fight
Drake London

Ruled Out vs Seattle
Jan Blachowicz

Set To Open Up UFC 323 Main Card
Lamar Jackson

Will Play on Sunday
Bogdan Guskov

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
CFB

Emmett Johnson Leaving Nebraska for 2026 NFL Draft
Dalton Kincaid

to be Questionable for Week 14
Tee Higgins

Clears Concussion Protocol, is a Full-Go for Sunday
CFB

Jam Miller Unlikely to Play in SEC Title Game
CFB

Penn State Expected to Hire Matt Campbell from Iowa State
Mike Evans

Not Quite Ready to Return This Week
Jayden Daniels

Will Start Against Vikings
Lamar Jackson

Returns to Practice, on Track to Play on Sunday
Kyler Murray

Won't Return This Year, Cardinals Non-Committal on his Future
Trey Benson

Out in Week 14; Could he Miss the Rest of the Season?
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ruled Out for Sunday's Game
CeeDee Lamb

in the League's Concussion Protocol
Brian Branch

Out with Torn Achilles
Detroit Lions

Brian Branch Feared to Have Suffered an Achilles Injury
CFB

Arkansas Targeting Ron Roberts for Defensive Coordinator Job
Jayden Daniels

Tracking Towards a Week 14 Return
Justin Herbert

Trending in the Right Direction to Play Monday Night
Mathew Barzal

Leads Islanders Past Avalanche
Elias Lindholm

Posts Hat Trick of Assists Thursday
Leon Draisaitl

Notches Season-High Four Points in Thursday's Win
Connor McDavid

Nets 13th Career Hat Trick
Teuvo Teravainen

Expected to Be Fine After Thursday's Exit
Shane Pinto

Exits Loss With Injury
Joseph Woll

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Thursday
Jhostynxon Garcia

Pirates Acquire Jhostynxon Garcia From Red Sox
Cody Bellinger

Yankees Pushing Hard to Re-Sign Cody Bellinger
CFB

Penn State Eyeing Iowa State Coach Matt Campbell For Coaching Vacancy
Alex Bregman

Cubs Have Renewed Interest in Alex Bregman
CFB

Billy Napier Finalizing Deal to Become James Madison's New Head Coach
CFB

Buster Faulkner Set to Become Florida's New Offensive Coordinator
CFB

Joe Sloan Expected to be Kentucky's New Offensive Coordinator
CFB

Lane Kiffin Working to Keep Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker at LSU
CFB

Brian Daboll a Candidate for Penn State Head-Coaching Job?
Kyle Tucker

Visits With Blue Jays
Emilio Pagán

Reds Bring Back Closer Emilio Pagan on Two-Year Deal
Cedric Mullins

Rays Agree on One-Year Deal
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Considering Trading Freddy Peralta
Kyle Schwarber

Reds Serious About Adding Kyle Schwarber in Free Agency?
CFB

Brent Key Signing Five-Year Deal to Remain at Georgia Tech
CFB

Brian Hartline Expected to Land USF Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Collin Klein Expected to be Top Target for Kansas State if Head-Coach Job Opens
CFB

Chris Klieman Considering Stepping Down at Kansas State
CFB

D.J. Durkin Staying at Auburn Under Alex Golesh
CFB

Charlie Weis Jr. Permitted to Coach Ole Miss Offense in College Football Playoff
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP