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2016 In Review: Outfield (OF) Busts

Our review of the 2016 fantasy baseball season continues with a look at some of the most disappointing performances in the outfield.

Bust Outfielders in 2016

Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs

Heyward has had a fairly weird career. He broke into the majors back in 2010. Just 20 years old with 200 plate appearances above High-A to his name, Heyward hit .277/.393/.456 with 18 homers and 11 stolen bases. It was tough to find anyone who didn’t believe he’d be a superstar. After a sophomore slump, he bounced back with what still stands as the best season of his career in 2012 – 27 homers, 21 steals, and elite defense in right field. He got his face broken by a pitch the following year, but was coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 10 HR and 20 SB when he signed with the Cubs last winter.

2016 ended with his first championship ring, but otherwise, it couldn’t have gone much worse for Heyward. He provided his usual fantastic glovework, but at the plate he was an unmitigated disaster. Rather than rattle off his numbers, I will simply point out that he was a worse hitter than Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis, and Avisail Garcia.

Heyward is still just 27. We’ve seen him bounce back from a terrible season once already, and the Cubs will again have a star-studded lineup. But anyone who watched him play this year – particularly in the postseason, when “Heyward pops it up” became Joe Buck’s most uttered phrase – may have a hard time trusting him. Dude just looked broken at the plate. His swing mechanics have been referred to as “high maintenance” and that was on full display.

The crazy thing is, Heyward’s peripherals barely budged. He made a lot of soft contact, but he always has. He hit a lot of infield flies, but not that many more than usual. His spray chart doesn’t look terribly different. He did lose a few ticks off his average exit velocity from 2015, but otherwise the numbers just don’t seem to add up.

At the end of the day, we’re talking about a guy who has only ever once hit more than 14 home runs, only once hit above .280, only once scored or driven more than 85 runs, and never stolen more than 25 bases. A rebound may be coming, but Heyward’s never been the fantasy stud we hoped for.

Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

Like Heyward, McCutchen had the worst season of his career in 2016. Unlike Heyward, he was actually useful to fantasy owners, hitting .256/.336/.430 with 24 homers, 160 R+RBI, and six stolen bases. But of course there’s a yawning chasm between “useful” and “justifying a first-round draft pick.” After averaging a .313-96-25-90-19 line over the previous four years, Cutch seemed like one of the safest bets in baseball. So what happened?

We know that McCutchen dealt with a nagging thumb ailment, and there were reports (albeit unconfirmed) that McCutchen was playing through wrist issues for much of the year. Taken in tandem with his strong finish, it’s easy to construct a narrative that 2016 was an aberration thanks to injuries, and McCutchen should resume being one of the best hitters in the game. After all, he only turned 30 last month, and it’s incredibly rare to see a player like Cutch decline this suddenly. Case closed, right?

Would that it were so simple.  McCutchen also looked much slower than usual for most of last season, which we can’t blame on hand injuries. Perhaps his knee issues from 2015 flared up again. Either way, his stolen base total has dropped every year since 2013, as has his batting average. It’s been a steady and precipitous drop since 2014 for his slugging percentage, hard contact rate, and BABIP.

While I’d expect McCutchen to be better in 2017, assuming he’ll be back to business as usual seems a bridge too far. Most likely, he’s a good player rather than an elite one at this stage.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

Harper was such a monster in 2015 that the sequel was almost guaranteed to be a letdown, but this? This was likely sitting down to watch The Godfather Part III and getting The Room instead. While Harper did steal 21 bases, he saw a sharp decline in pretty much every other measure. His batting average and OBP dropped nearly 100 points each, while his slugging percentage dropped by over 200(!).

It’s a testament to how amazing he was in the previous year that he was still a top-25 outfielder despite those declines. Harper is, incredibly, still only 24. We all know how talented he is, and how physically gifted. But expecting him to do another peak-Bonds impression might be a bit unrealistic. Remember that old Sesame Street song, “One of These Things?” We can play that game with Harper’s career:

Season AVG OBP SLG HR/FB% Hard%
2012 .270 .340 .477 16.2% 30.1%
2013 .274 .368 .486 18.0% 35.6%
2014 .273 .344 .423 15.5% 30.2%
2015 .330 .460 .649 27.3% 40.9%
2016 .243 .373 .441 14.3% 34.1%

 

That table kind of says it all. Remember when people were questioning if he’d overtaken Mike Trout as the no-brainer first pick in fantasy drafts? See, the thing about Mike Trout isn’t just that he’s been sublime – it’s that he’s done it for five years running. Harper hasn’t. And while he’s certainly got the talent to be an elite player for the next decade, he may never reach the dizzying heights of 2015 again – particularly if he continues to have trouble staying healthy.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
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Tyler Reddick

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Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Back in Action on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
Cam Hart

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Should Move Up on Sunday
Ross Chastain

is a Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Josh Berry

Should Be Avoided in Fantasy at Sonoma
Chris Buescher

is A Great DFS Option to Consider for Sonoma Lineups
Riley Herbst

a Deep Sleeper at Sonoma
Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
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