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2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield (Part 2)

It’s time for another installment of the December edition of RotoBaller’s 2016 fantasy baseball rankings, December edition. If you missed yesterday’s outfield analysis, click here. Today, we’ll discuss the outfielders that I’m bearish on for next season, relative to my colleagues (again, Brad Johnson, Nick Mariano, and Max Petrie also participated in this round of rankings).

Programming reminder: These rankings were originally submitted on December 6. Transactions since that time may not be reflected in our valuations. However, we'll be releasing updates as the offseason progresses.

Make sure you read more of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings analysis including dynasty leagues, prospect ranks, and tiers for all positions.

 

Adam Jones

My rank: 21 | High: 11 | Overall: 15

Brad and I are of like minds on Jones, but Max and Nick have him in the top 12. They must not have noticed that his numbers are trending down in every 5x5 category:

Season AVG R HR RBI SB
2013 .285 100 33 108 14
2014 .281 88 29 96 7
2015 .269 74 27 82 3

 

Jones remains a productive player and a worthwhile fantasy investment, to be sure. But with those declines in batting average, runs, and stolen bases, Jones isn’t the five-category asset he used to be. For me, that’s enough to slot him in as an OF2 instead of a truly elite option.

 

Carlos Gomez

My rank: 24 | High: 12 | Overall: 19

Here’s another guy that split the panel. This time I’m joined in my pessimism by Nick, while the others have him at 12 and 14. Like Jones, Gomez has seen his batting average and steals drop over the past few seasons. Unlike Jones, Gomez also suffered from a power outage in 2015, as his home run total was nearly cut in half. That’s partly attributable to Gomez battling myriad injuries throughout the year. Maybe you’re willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and expect the power to return. But given that he just turned 30, it’s fair to be skeptical of him gaining back the 30+ points of BABIP he lost, or stealing 30 bases.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury

My rank: 32 | High: 24 | Overall: 26

Remember 2011, when Ellsbury was an absolute monster? He hit .321/.376/.522, with 32 homers, 39 steals, and 224 R+RBI. The power predictably turned out to be a mirage; he’s hit 36 homers combined in the four seasons since. You probably don’t need me to tell you that. But Ellsbury has also seen his stolen base totals decline from 52 to 39 to 21 over the last three seasons. He’s hit above .271 just once since that out of nowhere elite season. Most importantly, he’s continued to have trouble staying healthy. Ellsbury has missed a third of his team’s games going back to 2010. There’s no reason to expect him to avoid injury in his age-32 season, and his best tool – his speed – has pretty clearly been sapped by injury and age.

 

Brandon Moss

My rank: 71 | High: 49 | Overall: 60

Moss had 21 home runs and an .878 OPS at the All-Star break in 2014. In the season and a half since, he’s hit 23 homers and posted a .625 OPS. Here are his slugging percentages from the last four years: .596, .522, .438, .407. He’s always been a batting average liability thanks to high strikeout rates. Without the power to offset that, he’s not worth rostering in all but the deepest mixed leagues - and I'm not prepared to bet on a bounceback for him at age 32.

 

Outfield Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball

Name Brad Max Kyle Nick Composite
Mike Trout 1 1 1 1 1
Bryce Harper 2 2 2 2 2
Giancarlo Stanton 4 3 3 3 3.25
Andrew McCutchen 3 4 4 4 3.75
Jose Bautista 7 5 6 5 5.75
George Springer 5 9 5 6 6.25
A.J. Pollock 6 6 8 7 6.75
Starling Marte 10 8 7 10 8.75
Ryan Braun 11 7 9 8 8.75
Mookie Betts 8 10 10 9 9.25
J.D. Martinez 9 13 11 11 11
Justin Upton 14 12 12 15 13.25
Charlie Blackmon 13 19 13 14 14.75
Nelson Cruz 15 16 15 16 15.5
Adam Jones 20 11 21 12 16
Kyle Schwarber 16 15 16 19 16.5
Lorenzo Cain 19 20 14 17 17.5
Carlos Gonzalez 17 18 19 18 18
Carlos Gomez 12 14 24 23 18.25
Yoenis Cespedes 25 21 17 13 19
Jason Heyward 18 17 20 24 19.75
Yasiel Puig 23 22 18 25 22
Corey Dickerson 22 26 22 21 22.75
Hunter Pence 28 28 23 20 24.75
Brett Gardner 27 27 27 28 27.25
Jacoby Ellsbury 24 24 32 29 27.25
Curtis Granderson 31 33 28 26 29.5
Kole Calhoun 29 30 33 32 31
Alex Gordon 26 32 35 33 31.5
Matt Holliday 38 29 30 31 32
Michael Brantley 46 23 37 22 32
David Peralta 36 41 25 27 32.25
Jorge Soler 40 36 31 30 34.25
Joc Pederson 34 42 26 38 35
Christian Yelich 30 37 39 34 35
Billy Hamilton 21 25 45 50 35.25
Josh Reddick 33 40 36 35 36
Shin-Soo Choo 35 34 38 37 36
Matt Kemp 39 31 42 43 38.75
Gregory Polanco 42 35 41 41 39.75
Michael Conforto 32 38 43 46 39.75
Stephen Piscotty 37 39 48 36 40
Adam Eaton 47 44 29 44 41
Randal Grichuk 41 50 34 42 41.75
Dexter Fowler 44 45 40 39 42
Hanley Ramirez 45 43 44 40 43
Steven Souza 53 47 47 47 48.5
Ender Inciarte 57 46 46 52 50.25
Khris Davis 63 49 52 45 52.25
Ben Revere 52 60 49 51 53
Ben Zobrist 51 51 57 53 53
Kevin Pillar 62 53 51 48 53.5
Jayson Werth 48 62 53 54 54.25
Delino Deshields 65 48 56 49 54.5
Melky Cabrera 54 52 58 56 55
Billy Burns 60 54 54 58 56.5
Marcell Ozuna 67 55 50 55 56.75
Wil Myers 68 56 55 57 59
Aaron Hicks 43 68 69 65 61.25
Brandon Moss 49 61 71 66 61.75
Aaron Altherr 59 69 60 60 62
Cameron Maybin 70 58 61 59 62
Odubel Herrera 55 66 59 71 62.75
Carlos Beltran 61 67 62 61 62.75
Eddie Rosario 58 64 66 63 62.75
Rusney Castillo 69 57 63 67 64
Jay Bruce 64 63 67 62 64
Colby Rasmus 56 74 65 64 64.75
Gerardo Parra 71 59 64 68 65.5
Danny Valencia 50 65 78 72 66.25
Mark Trumbo 76 75 68 69 72
Marlon Byrd 79 76 72 73 75
Byron Buxton 75 78 73 75 75.25
Denard Span 74 72 85 74 76.25
Brad Miller 66 70 70 ---
Anthony Gose 77 ---
Kevin Kiermaier 83 83 74 ---
Derek Dietrich 77 79 75 ---
Chris Colabello 82 76 70 ---
Andre Ethier 85 79 ---
Brock Holt 78 80 80 ---
Mark Canha 81 ---
Michael Taylor 86 81 82 ---
Domingo Santana 80 82 83 ---
Enrique Hernandez 84 ---
Nori Aoki 73 71 86 ---
Austin Jackson 72 88 87 ---
Eduardo Escobar 87 88 ---
Franklin Gutierrez 89 ---
Preston Tucker 84 90 ---
Jackie Bradley Jr. 86 ---
Chris Coghlan 84 85 ---
Nick Markakis 87 89 ---
Michael Cuddyer 81 ---
Alex Rios 88 90 ---
Yasmany Tomas 73 ---

 

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