Welcome back to the first edition of RotoBaller’s 2016 fantasy baseball rankings. We went around the horn and finished the infield with a look at third base yesterday, so now our attention turns to the outfield. If you’re just joining us, this first round of rankings was compiled by Brad Johnson, Max Petrie, and Nick Mariano in addition to yours truly. As we draw closer to the start of the season, the rest of our deep stable of MLB writers will offer their input.
As with the infield rankings, there wasn’t much dissension on the elite options. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, naturally, were unanimous choices for first and second, respectively. Three of us had Giancarlo Stanton at #3 followed by Andrew McCutchen, while Brad had the two flipped. Brad included J.D. Martinez in his top 10 at the expense of Ryan Braun, but otherwise we all had the same 10 players at the top. That’s all well and good, but it doesn’t make for terribly interesting analysis. So today, I’ll highlight the outfielders I’m bullish on compared to my fellow RotoBallers. Tomorrow, we’ll look at the other side of the coin and discuss those players about whom I’m more pessimistic. Programming reminder: These rankings were originally submitted on December 6. Transactions since that time may not be reflected in our valuations. However, we'll be releasing updates as the offseason progresses.
Editor's Note: Don't forget to read all of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings columns. There's lots of great rankings analysis including redraft, dynasty/keeper, prospects and positional tiers.
David Peralta
My rank: 25 | Low: 41 | Overall: 32
I wrote about Peralta at length last month. Suffice it to say that I’m completely buying his 2015 breakout. He got the majority of his at-bats as Arizona’s cleanup hitter, hitting behind A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt. Given a full season in that spot, Peralta should rack up a good amount of RBI. The Arizona lineup is top heavy, but Peralta uses his gap power and speed to great effect in taking extra bases, which will help him score more runs than he otherwise would. He has untapped stolen base upside as well.
Joc Pederson
My rank: 26 | Low: 42 | Overall: 34
Despite a second-half collapse, Pederson still hit 26 home runs and posted a 15.7% walk rate in his rookie season. Yes, the contact issues will continue to suppress his batting average. The lack of stolen bases (just four in 11 attempts) was a disappointing development as well. However, Pederson averaged 29 steals in his four minor league seasons and posted much higher Speed scores than he did in his first MLB campaign. With Don Mattingly out of the picture, Pederson should have a longer leash during the inevitable slumps that come with being a three true outcomes hitter. Steamer projects another 26 homers, but also 14 steals and 87 runs. Even with a low batting average, that kind of category juice merits a top-30 ranking, especially factoring in Pederson’s growth potential.
Adam Eaton
My rank: 29 | Low: 47 | Overall: 43
Behold – a table!
BA | R | RBI | HR | SB | ESPN OF Rank | |
Eaton | .287 | 98 | 56 | 14 | 18 | 20 |
Player B | .259 | 94 | 66 | 16 | 20 | 26 |
Player C | .291 | 92 | 77 | 18 | 21 | 12 |
Player B is Brett Gardner. Player C? Mookie Betts. We all ranked Gardner in the top 30 and Betts in the top 10. Yet everyone else has Eaton in the mid-40s. Maybe they’re remembering his putrid April (.497 OPS, no homers, one steal) rather than his sexy second half (.904 OPS, eight homers, 13 steals). Maybe they’re skeptical of the power, despite the fact that just three of his 14 bombs were classified as “Just Enough” by ESPN’s home run tracker, and his average batted ball distance was higher than Gardner’s and essentially identical to Betts’. Maybe they’re jealous of his manly beard. Whatever the case, it seems like Eaton is being undervalued by my esteemed colleagues.
Randal Grichuk
My rank: 34 | Low: 50 | Overall: 44
Despite a strikeout rate north of 30 percent, Grichuk managed to hit .276 last season. Paired with 17 homers, 96 R+RBI, and four steals in just 350 plate appearances, that made him a pretty nifty in-season pickup for many fantasy owners. Normally, a middling walk rate and a high BABIP would give me pause. It certainly seems to have tempered the others’ expectations, but Grichuk’s batted ball data suggests that regression won’t hit as hard as we might otherwise expect. Simply put, he crushes the ball. Pick your metric – hard hit rate, line drive rate, exit velocity – and Grichuk grades out as excellent. He also posted much better whiff rates in the minors, so it’s not crazy to think he’ll improve there. Grichuk might have some SB upside as well; he stole 33 bases over his three full minor league seasons.
Outfield Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball
Name | Brad | Max | Kyle | Nick | Composite |
Mike Trout | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Bryce Harper | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.25 |
Andrew McCutchen | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.75 |
Jose Bautista | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5.75 |
George Springer | 5 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 6.25 |
A.J. Pollock | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6.75 |
Starling Marte | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8.75 |
Ryan Braun | 11 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8.75 |
Mookie Betts | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9.25 |
J.D. Martinez | 9 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Justin Upton | 14 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 13.25 |
Charlie Blackmon | 13 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 14.75 |
Nelson Cruz | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15.5 |
Adam Jones | 20 | 11 | 21 | 12 | 16 |
Kyle Schwarber | 16 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 16.5 |
Lorenzo Cain | 19 | 20 | 14 | 17 | 17.5 |
Carlos Gonzalez | 17 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 18 |
Carlos Gomez | 12 | 14 | 24 | 23 | 18.25 |
Yoenis Cespedes | 25 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 19 |
Jason Heyward | 18 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 19.75 |
Yasiel Puig | 23 | 22 | 18 | 25 | 22 |
Corey Dickerson | 22 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 22.75 |
Hunter Pence | 28 | 28 | 23 | 20 | 24.75 |
Brett Gardner | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27.25 |
Jacoby Ellsbury | 24 | 24 | 32 | 29 | 27.25 |
Curtis Granderson | 31 | 33 | 28 | 26 | 29.5 |
Kole Calhoun | 29 | 30 | 33 | 32 | 31 |
Alex Gordon | 26 | 32 | 35 | 33 | 31.5 |
Matt Holliday | 38 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 |
Michael Brantley | 46 | 23 | 37 | 22 | 32 |
David Peralta | 36 | 41 | 25 | 27 | 32.25 |
Jorge Soler | 40 | 36 | 31 | 30 | 34.25 |
Joc Pederson | 34 | 42 | 26 | 38 | 35 |
Christian Yelich | 30 | 37 | 39 | 34 | 35 |
Billy Hamilton | 21 | 25 | 45 | 50 | 35.25 |
Josh Reddick | 33 | 40 | 36 | 35 | 36 |
Shin-Soo Choo | 35 | 34 | 38 | 37 | 36 |
Matt Kemp | 39 | 31 | 42 | 43 | 38.75 |
Gregory Polanco | 42 | 35 | 41 | 41 | 39.75 |
Michael Conforto | 32 | 38 | 43 | 46 | 39.75 |
Stephen Piscotty | 37 | 39 | 48 | 36 | 40 |
Adam Eaton | 47 | 44 | 29 | 44 | 41 |
Randal Grichuk | 41 | 50 | 34 | 42 | 41.75 |
Dexter Fowler | 44 | 45 | 40 | 39 | 42 |
Hanley Ramirez | 45 | 43 | 44 | 40 | 43 |
Steven Souza | 53 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 48.5 |
Ender Inciarte | 57 | 46 | 46 | 52 | 50.25 |
Khris Davis | 63 | 49 | 52 | 45 | 52.25 |
Ben Revere | 52 | 60 | 49 | 51 | 53 |
Ben Zobrist | 51 | 51 | 57 | 53 | 53 |
Kevin Pillar | 62 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 53.5 |
Jayson Werth | 48 | 62 | 53 | 54 | 54.25 |
Delino Deshields | 65 | 48 | 56 | 49 | 54.5 |
Melky Cabrera | 54 | 52 | 58 | 56 | 55 |
Billy Burns | 60 | 54 | 54 | 58 | 56.5 |
Marcell Ozuna | 67 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 56.75 |
Wil Myers | 68 | 56 | 55 | 57 | 59 |
Aaron Hicks | 43 | 68 | 69 | 65 | 61.25 |
Brandon Moss | 49 | 61 | 71 | 66 | 61.75 |
Aaron Altherr | 59 | 69 | 60 | 60 | 62 |
Cameron Maybin | 70 | 58 | 61 | 59 | 62 |
Odubel Herrera | 55 | 66 | 59 | 71 | 62.75 |
Carlos Beltran | 61 | 67 | 62 | 61 | 62.75 |
Eddie Rosario | 58 | 64 | 66 | 63 | 62.75 |
Rusney Castillo | 69 | 57 | 63 | 67 | 64 |
Jay Bruce | 64 | 63 | 67 | 62 | 64 |
Colby Rasmus | 56 | 74 | 65 | 64 | 64.75 |
Gerardo Parra | 71 | 59 | 64 | 68 | 65.5 |
Danny Valencia | 50 | 65 | 78 | 72 | 66.25 |
Mark Trumbo | 76 | 75 | 68 | 69 | 72 |
Marlon Byrd | 79 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 75 |
Byron Buxton | 75 | 78 | 73 | 75 | 75.25 |
Denard Span | 74 | 72 | 85 | 74 | 76.25 |
Brad Miller | 66 | 70 | 70 | --- | |
Anthony Gose | 77 | --- | |||
Kevin Kiermaier | 83 | 83 | 74 | --- | |
Derek Dietrich | 77 | 79 | 75 | --- | |
Chris Colabello | 82 | 76 | 70 | --- | |
Andre Ethier | 85 | 79 | --- | ||
Brock Holt | 78 | 80 | 80 | --- | |
Mark Canha | 81 | --- | |||
Michael Taylor | 86 | 81 | 82 | --- | |
Domingo Santana | 80 | 82 | 83 | --- | |
Enrique Hernandez | 84 | --- | |||
Nori Aoki | 73 | 71 | 86 | --- | |
Austin Jackson | 72 | 88 | 87 | --- | |
Eduardo Escobar | 87 | 88 | --- | ||
Franklin Gutierrez | 89 | --- | |||
Preston Tucker | 84 | 90 | --- | ||
Jackie Bradley Jr. | 86 | --- | |||
Chris Coghlan | 84 | 85 | --- | ||
Nick Markakis | 87 | 89 | --- | ||
Michael Cuddyer | 81 | --- | |||
Alex Rios | 88 | 90 | --- | ||
Yasmany Tomas | 73 | --- |
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